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Fed releases FOMC minutes, PPI raises: Is inflation under control?
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💡Summary: • Core Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 0.3% in September, above the forecast 0.2%. • PPI, including food and gas, grew 0.5%, c Show More
💡Summary:
• Core Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 0.3% in September, above the forecast 0.2%.
• PPI, including food and gas, grew 0.5%, compared to an expected 0.3%
• The FOMC Sept. meeting minutes released Wed. Committee members said the economy remained stubbornly strong, and rates would stay high until at least May, and there was a slim chance rates would raise again in 2023.

FOMC Meeting Minutes Highlights:
U.S. data pointed to greater economic resilience than previously thought. The economic forecast for the meeting was stronger than in July on resilient consumer and business spending.

Survey respondents said there would be no change in interest rates in Sept., and most saw the rates staying at the heightened level until May in 2024, with only a small chance of a rate increase at the November meeting.

"A majority of participants judged that one more increase in the target federal funds rate at a future meeting would likely be appropriate, while some judged it likely that no further increases would be warranted," the Fed said.

GDP and PCE:
The Commitee saw GDP growing at a solid pace, the labor market was still tight. Unemployment was low, job market was strong, and consumer price inflation was still elevated. Total nonfarm payroll increased slowly in Sept, the PCE then was only up 3.3% in twelve months, CPI was well below last year. The dollar was strong as economic growth in foreign markets slowed. Total and core PCE price inflation were forecast to be around 3.5 percent at the end of this year.
The staff assumed the autoworkers' strike would dampen GDP growth for the rest of this year.

Many participants observed that intensifying the strike would harm the economy. Other members said that an extended U.S. government shutdown could hurt growth. Several participants commented that a government shutdown might result in the delayed release of some economic data and that this outcome would make it more difficult to assess economic conditions.

PPI Data:
PPI measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. Core PPI excludes food and energy. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, accounting for most overall inflation.

🎙️Q:
1. Will the Israel conflict affect the next FOMC meeting?
2. Does it feel like Fed Rates are making inflation better?

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