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Last week, I mentioned we might be witnessing a potential market top because of the 3 signs showing up. However, confirmation via a change of character bar and spike of supply did not appear.
As the $E-mini S&P 500 Futures(DEC4) (ESmain.US)$ , $E-mini NASDAQ 100 Futures(DEC4) (NQmain.US)$ and the $E-mini Dow Futures(DEC4) (YMmain.US)$ are all at all time high while the earnings reports from $Apple (AAPL.US)$ and $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ disappointed investors, should you jump in the stock market right now?
The short answer is it depends and I will show you what you might want to consider before making a decision.
Market Recap
First, let's take a look at S&P 500 futures (ES) and what's happening last week.
The first sign of emerging supply was on 22 Oct, as highlighted in blue where there is increasing of volume without upside progress as S&P 500 was testing the previous all-time high resistance at 4550.
On 25 Oct (Monday), S&P 500 broke and close at all time high. However, increasing of supply hit on Tuesday and Wednesday as highlighted in orange where bearish price action was in sync with increasing of volume. This was the time where the bear can take initiative to overwhelm the bull.
Yet, there was no follow through and commitment to the downside. Just after a test of the axis line (where the resistance-turned-support), S&P 500 absorbed the supply on Thursday and once again close at all time high on Friday.
In short, there is still no excessive supply to kick start a pullback yet.
How far can S&P 500 go?
Based on Point & Figure price target projection, there is a minimum target of 4740, suggests that there is still enough fuel in the tank for more upside ahead for S&P 500.
From the analysis, the bias of the market direction is still up until emergence of excessive supply and a change of character shows up.
Ready to buy? Things you need to consider
Every successful trader or investor have a plan and they do stick to it. If you are an investor who only pay attention to the intrinsic value of a stock, market timing might not be that relevant to you since the investing thesis is likely to buy the stock at price with a safety margin and wait till the stock materializes at least to its intrinsic value (and beyond).
For traders (both short and long term), the trend of the broad market is up and it is time to focus on outperforming sectors (e.g. $The Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund (XLK.US)$ , $Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY.US)$ , $Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF.US)$ , $Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE.US)$ ) and stocks in order to beat the market.
Follow your trading plan (including entry, stop, % of risk taken and position size) and execute when the setup is triggered. Next, you can just sit back, relax and manage your trade according to your trading plan to maximize the profits and limit the losses.
If you are wondering what if your analysis, execution or trade management was wrong? No matter which part goes wrong, you are at least protected by the risk you have set before you enter a trade, which is the amount you are willing to lose when you are wrong. So, risk management is the key and you will especially appreciate it during bad time.
Do think about your trading style, timeframe and risk appetite before you consider to start trading or investing in the stock market now.
Safe trading.
As the $E-mini S&P 500 Futures(DEC4) (ESmain.US)$ , $E-mini NASDAQ 100 Futures(DEC4) (NQmain.US)$ and the $E-mini Dow Futures(DEC4) (YMmain.US)$ are all at all time high while the earnings reports from $Apple (AAPL.US)$ and $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ disappointed investors, should you jump in the stock market right now?
The short answer is it depends and I will show you what you might want to consider before making a decision.
Market Recap
First, let's take a look at S&P 500 futures (ES) and what's happening last week.
The first sign of emerging supply was on 22 Oct, as highlighted in blue where there is increasing of volume without upside progress as S&P 500 was testing the previous all-time high resistance at 4550.
On 25 Oct (Monday), S&P 500 broke and close at all time high. However, increasing of supply hit on Tuesday and Wednesday as highlighted in orange where bearish price action was in sync with increasing of volume. This was the time where the bear can take initiative to overwhelm the bull.
Yet, there was no follow through and commitment to the downside. Just after a test of the axis line (where the resistance-turned-support), S&P 500 absorbed the supply on Thursday and once again close at all time high on Friday.
In short, there is still no excessive supply to kick start a pullback yet.
How far can S&P 500 go?
Based on Point & Figure price target projection, there is a minimum target of 4740, suggests that there is still enough fuel in the tank for more upside ahead for S&P 500.
From the analysis, the bias of the market direction is still up until emergence of excessive supply and a change of character shows up.
Ready to buy? Things you need to consider
Every successful trader or investor have a plan and they do stick to it. If you are an investor who only pay attention to the intrinsic value of a stock, market timing might not be that relevant to you since the investing thesis is likely to buy the stock at price with a safety margin and wait till the stock materializes at least to its intrinsic value (and beyond).
For traders (both short and long term), the trend of the broad market is up and it is time to focus on outperforming sectors (e.g. $The Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund (XLK.US)$ , $Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY.US)$ , $Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF.US)$ , $Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE.US)$ ) and stocks in order to beat the market.
Follow your trading plan (including entry, stop, % of risk taken and position size) and execute when the setup is triggered. Next, you can just sit back, relax and manage your trade according to your trading plan to maximize the profits and limit the losses.
If you are wondering what if your analysis, execution or trade management was wrong? No matter which part goes wrong, you are at least protected by the risk you have set before you enter a trade, which is the amount you are willing to lose when you are wrong. So, risk management is the key and you will especially appreciate it during bad time.
Do think about your trading style, timeframe and risk appetite before you consider to start trading or investing in the stock market now.
Safe trading.
35
4
I say this will go down but you always trade SOFI and DBRG when management gets right. Buy hold good Stocls ENB, DUK COKE and any stock with a good dividends and good ran company. Be safe the market has risk no one wants to talk about. We had free rent and money for a year now that will wash out. We China Real-estate capital failure with multiple companies now near 1 Trillion dollars. We have a massive supply problem from chips to food. I just read up to 32% of all working will leave ove the vaccine ( I don't care how tou feel about it ) this a very dangerous to America. I read where we a seeing late payments on credit cards already. Please becareful do your DD on every company. Love fast hate slow.
SHIBA is my rocket, Go baby go 🚀
Columns Hope Everyone Calm Down
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Investment is a lifetime thing Not a matter of days and months Don't be ecstatic for teeny profits Don't give up good stocks because of the high altitude Don't be thunderous because of a short-term correction Don’t chase the ups and downs without any plan, buy high and sell low
Before making each decision, think about the next step and the steps after the next step. Each step should not contradict your plan. Those who sell flying, please review, don’t repeat the same mistakes Good stocks that are missed, as long as you give them a few years, you can buy them for a long time.
No one can accurately predict what will happen within a few days time and time again, so betting on financial reports is called "gambling". Winning a gambling is not inevitable. It is not your talent. It is a fluke. fluke will produce the illusion of ability and make you do more mistakes. Decide. A long-term stable investment strategy is the last path that every rational investor will choose, because they will find that gambling all the time is not the way. They win at one time and lose several times, picking up sesame seeds and losing watermelons back and forth.
In fact, many academic studies (not just those based on experience, but literature with statistics, data, and historical blessings) have found that the most ideal strategy for most investors is to invest in long-term holdings, rather than operating frequently. There are also Meidi securities firms who found that the best performing accounts among their clients are those who have passed away (because they have not been sold).
Take a long-term view and do more fundamental research, especially if you look at foreign research, your horizons will be much broader. The vast majority of retail investors are losing money. Losing is not a problem, but not learning lessons after losing is the problem. Of course, there are also people who will never touch investors if they lose. Try to find a way to become the small group of people who can make money in the end. My words are here. I don’t want everyone to be smooth sailing, but I wish you all to realize the way to victory as soon as possible.
Before making each decision, think about the next step and the steps after the next step. Each step should not contradict your plan. Those who sell flying, please review, don’t repeat the same mistakes Good stocks that are missed, as long as you give them a few years, you can buy them for a long time.
No one can accurately predict what will happen within a few days time and time again, so betting on financial reports is called "gambling". Winning a gambling is not inevitable. It is not your talent. It is a fluke. fluke will produce the illusion of ability and make you do more mistakes. Decide. A long-term stable investment strategy is the last path that every rational investor will choose, because they will find that gambling all the time is not the way. They win at one time and lose several times, picking up sesame seeds and losing watermelons back and forth.
In fact, many academic studies (not just those based on experience, but literature with statistics, data, and historical blessings) have found that the most ideal strategy for most investors is to invest in long-term holdings, rather than operating frequently. There are also Meidi securities firms who found that the best performing accounts among their clients are those who have passed away (because they have not been sold).
Take a long-term view and do more fundamental research, especially if you look at foreign research, your horizons will be much broader. The vast majority of retail investors are losing money. Losing is not a problem, but not learning lessons after losing is the problem. Of course, there are also people who will never touch investors if they lose. Try to find a way to become the small group of people who can make money in the end. My words are here. I don’t want everyone to be smooth sailing, but I wish you all to realize the way to victory as soon as possible.
5
"All US Exchanges Five Day Gainers - Barchart.com" https://www.barchart.com/stocks/performance/five-day-gainers/advances?orderBy=percentChange5d&orderDir=desc
2
I am new and hope to get advics . thsnk you
2
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$Palantir (PLTR.US)$
$Nano Dimension (NNDM.US)$
$Bit Brother (BTB.US)$
$Aurora Cannabis (ACB.US)$
$Village Farms International (VFF.US)$
$Tilray Brands (TLRY.US)$
$Canopy Growth (CGC.US)$
$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$
$Ethereum (ETH.CC)$
$Mind Medicine (MNMD.US)$
$COMPASS Pathways (CMPS.US)$
20
1
Nobody can actually predict when a bull run will end. Not you, not me or even Legendary Buffett. What is more important is that we must Ensure that our investment portfolio include some quality shares that can withstand the torment of a bearish season. However, with the evolution of EV, (electric vechicle) holding a share in the automaker buisness can be a safe wager.
With the global concern for zero waste and the avoidance of the harmful effects of carbon dioxide emissions, EV will certainly take over gasoline driven vechicles in the near future. This move is further enhanced by the steep increase in gasoline prices of late.
Will $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ be the “KING” of the future EV evolution since it has Long been an established brand? Obviously, Tesla is facing competitive challenges from other renowned automakers like $Ford Motor (F.US)$, $NIO Inc (NIO.US)$, $Toyota Motor (TM.US)$ or a lesser known, but up and coming company like $Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US)$, with its promise of a better battery pack.
Ultimately, the end users must decide whether $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ is a value for dollar buy, as compared to some other cheaper EV Brand’s.
Of course the safety features incorporated is also an important selling point.
Irregardless of whether the bull run has ended or will be ending, it is wise to hold Tesla’s shares because it is an iconic brand. Other shares that are worth investing for Long term benefits are:
$Apple (AAPL.US)$
$Alibaba (BABA.US)$
$Amazon (AMZN.US)$
$Netflix (NFLX.US)$
I am positive that the above shares mentioned are realistic quality investment that can reap the harvest that a bull run can bring, or weather the harsh realities of a bear run.
With the global concern for zero waste and the avoidance of the harmful effects of carbon dioxide emissions, EV will certainly take over gasoline driven vechicles in the near future. This move is further enhanced by the steep increase in gasoline prices of late.
Will $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ be the “KING” of the future EV evolution since it has Long been an established brand? Obviously, Tesla is facing competitive challenges from other renowned automakers like $Ford Motor (F.US)$, $NIO Inc (NIO.US)$, $Toyota Motor (TM.US)$ or a lesser known, but up and coming company like $Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US)$, with its promise of a better battery pack.
Ultimately, the end users must decide whether $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ is a value for dollar buy, as compared to some other cheaper EV Brand’s.
Of course the safety features incorporated is also an important selling point.
Irregardless of whether the bull run has ended or will be ending, it is wise to hold Tesla’s shares because it is an iconic brand. Other shares that are worth investing for Long term benefits are:
$Apple (AAPL.US)$
$Alibaba (BABA.US)$
$Amazon (AMZN.US)$
$Netflix (NFLX.US)$
I am positive that the above shares mentioned are realistic quality investment that can reap the harvest that a bull run can bring, or weather the harsh realities of a bear run.
16
11
I believe the current bull market will continue into the new year, although with some volatility. Investors need to look for bargains on stock that is trading near its lows for potential gains thru the end of the year and follow the market, if market pulls back you pull back assets.
2
1
carririlin : I think opportunity exists all the time
Lei Chou carririlin : Agree
WYCKOFFPRO OP carririlin : absolutely
carririlin WYCKOFFPRO OP :