This week's earnings and economic calendar (10/28~11/1) are full of elements of turmoil! A tumultuous week where "M7" earnings, elections, and employment statistics intersect.
This week in Japanese stocks,Results of the House of Representatives electionandBOJ meeting、Many economic indicators in the USA、US mega-cap tech stocks earnings reportsIt seems that the development will be tumultuous due to various US economic indicators. Market participants are paying attention to whether the ruling party, Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito, can maintain a majority. In case of a majority loss, there is a possibility that the political uncertainty may increase and sell pressure on Japanese stocks could intensify. Moreover, Japan's stable political situation that has lasted for over 10 years may suddenly become fluid, potentially constraining the Bank of Japan's timing in seeking additional interest rate hikes. On the other hand, in the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision-making meeting scheduled for the 31st, financial easing is expected, however, amid the continued depreciation of the yen, whether hawkish statements will be made remains to be seen.maintaining the current situationfinancial easingwhether hawkish statements will be made, and Views on the macro economy are attracting attention.。
This week in the US stock market, the market's direction could be significantly influenced by the release of important economic indicators and corporate earnings reports, leading to increased volatility. As for corporate earnings, the top technology giants dubbed the "Magnificent Seven (M7)" Magnificent Seven (American mega-cap stocks "M7")and $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$、 $Meta Platforms (META.US)$、 $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$、 $Apple (AAPL.US)$、 $Amazon (AMZN.US)$Earnings announcements are scheduled. These companies are key players in the main board of the USA stock market, and their performance could have a significant impact on the overall market sentiment.
Regarding the USA economic indicators,October's USA employment statisticsandGDP preliminary estimates for the July-September quarter、PCE deflatorImportant indicators are scheduled, including employment statistics which is a crucial indicator showing the health of the labor market and influencing the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve Bank, hence the market will be sensitive to its results.
The yen exchange rate next week is expected to have volatile fluctuations. The results of Japan's House of Representatives election will have a significant impact on the yen's movement. If the majority is lost, political instability may increase, leading to a depreciation of the yen. In addition,On November 5th, the US presidential election will take place, and if observations continue to favor Republican candidate Mr. Trump, it could be a supporting factor for the dollar. Additionally, the October employment statistics and GDP preliminary figures are also likely to affect the dollar's movement. Furthermore, it will be of interest whether Governor Ueda's press conference includes hawkish statements regarding a weak yen trend.continues to support the dollar.supporting factors for the dollar.In addition, attention will be focused on whether Governor Ueda's press conference includes hawkish statements regarding a weak yen trend.
1. The Nikkei average fell for the 2nd consecutive week, with the phrase 'buy the election' collapsing for the first time in half a century.
2. Tokyo Metro has a magnificent debut on the main board market.
3. Rising US bond yields exerting sustained pressure on the US stock market.
4. NVIDIA's fan CEO enters the top 10 of the world's billionaires ranking for the first time. NVIDIA sets another all-time high with updates.
5. Gold continues to reach all-time highs, with the possibility of surpassing $3,000.
Tesla, amazing strong earnings! The next stock price movement is under intense scrutiny.
Last week, the Nikkei average on the Tokyo stock market fell by ¥1,067.83 (2.74%) compared to the previous week to ¥7913.92, a decrease for the 2nd consecutive week.2 weeks of decline.した。衆議院解散前日よりも3%安い水準で終え、半世紀以上続いてきた「選挙は買い」のアノマリー（経験則）が崩れた。週を通じて不安定な相場展開だった。10月27日に投開票する衆議院議員総選挙について「与党が過半数割れする可能性」が相次いで報じられ、政治リスクを織り込む動きが一段と強まったことが一因だ。注目を集めていた $Tokyo Metro (9023.JP)$は、10月23日にプライム市場に上場。初値が公開価格（1200円）を35.8％上回る1630円をつけるなど、好スタートを切った。
先週の米国株式市場は、複数の不確定要素の中で慎重な動きShowing a toro. Investors are skeptical about whether the US Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates in November or keep them steady.Strong US economic indicators、Cautious comments from Federal Reserve Board (FRB) officials、Concerns about the financial impact of a victory by Republican presidential candidate Trumpare having a significant impact on the market.
Many FRB officials, including Robert Kaplan, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, and Esther George, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, support a gradual rate cut and have shown a willingness to slow down the pace of the significant rate cut in September.
As a result, market expectations for a rate cut next year are declining. In this context,U.S. long-term bond yields continue to rise,and the yield on U.S. 10-year bonds briefly exceeded 4.26%, then stabilized at around 4.2%. This rise in yields has put pressure on interest-sensitive stocks such as real estate. Despite the rise in bond yields,the price of gold continues to hit record highs.With the U.S. presidential election approaching and the Middle East situation escalating, investors are seeking safe havens, pushing up the price of gold. UBS maintains that gold is currentlystill in an underweight condition,with a target price for next year of3,000 dollars per ounce.としている。BofAは、政策とインフレに支えられた金の強気相場が続くと見ており、金価格は3000ドルを超えるand financial estimates.
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$のジェンセン・ファンCEOは先週、世界長者番付トップ10に初めてランクインした。21日、米半導体大手エヌビディアの株価が再び史上最高値を更新し、フアンの純資産は3.2 billionドル増の123.6 billionドルとなった。ファンと入れ替わって番付11位に順位を下げた元 $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$CEOのスティーブ・バルマーを抜いた。しかし、その後元マイクロソフトCEOに抜かれて11位となった。ウォール街の大手銀行は、エヌビディアの株価にさらなる上昇余地があると見ており、目標株価を引き上げ続けている。
バンク・オブ・アメリカ、目標株価190ドル
Goldman Sachs, target stock price $150.
CFRA Research, target stock price $160.
Bernstein, target stock price $155.
Regarding the earnings announcement, $Tesla (TSLA.US)$isRecording the highest profit in over a year for the quarter,Taking into account, kicking off the earnings reports of the magnificent seven. Tesla showed unexpected profit improvement, with earnings per share (EPS) for the third quarter up from the previous year.9% increase.The gross profit margin increased by 195 basis points compared to the previous year.19.8％reached, and Cybertruck for the first time turned to a positive gross profit. g.a.n. changed.The stock price surged 22% on Thursday.The stock price surged 22% on Thursday. The stock price surged 22% on Thursday, the highest single-day increase in over 10 years.The stock price surged 22% on Thursday, the highest single-day increase in over 10 years.However, after the earnings reports, major Wall Street banks have diverging opinions on the future movements of Tesla's stock price.
Some very bullish analysts (like Wedbush) predict Tesla's stock price will rise by over 40%, while others believe concerns about Tesla's long-term growth have not been resolved, even anticipating a drop of nearly 40% in stock price (such as JP Morgan).
In addition, $General Motors (GM.US)$Due to strong EV sales, the quarterly profit and revenue exceeded expectations, leading to the third upward revision of guidance this year. GM's stock rose on the 22nd.rose more than 10%.[AgroScience Segment] Herbicides saw a significant decrease due to the sales period being brought forward compared to the previous year for agricultural land and golf courses, but revenues increased due to strong demand for railroads and home gardening. $Coca-Cola (KO.US)$Increased prices by over 10% in the third quarter, partially offsetting the impact of low market demand. As a result, both revenue and profit exceeded Wall Street's expectations, leading to an upward revision of full-year revenue guidance. On the other hand, $Boeing (BA.US)$are The largest quarterly deficit since 2020.was recorded. Net profit in the third quarter was $6.17 billion, both revenue and free cash flow fell below expectations.
Last week, many U.S. economic indicators performed well, supporting market expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the FRB in November.
- The beige book of the Federal Reserve District Economic Report noted that economic activity has been flat in many districts since early September. Despite unexpected increases in September's employment, consumer prices, and retail sales, the slowdown in the U.S. economy continues.
- The U.S. Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) flash value rose to 54.3 from 54 in September. Against the backdrop of strong demand, U.S. business activity expanded, with the pace of price increases for goods and services becoming the most moderate in about four and a half years, suggesting a strong start to the U.S. economy in the fourth quarter.
- Initial jobless claims unexpectedly decreased, while the number of continuing claimants reached a three-year high due to the impact of hurricanes.
Source: MINKABU, Bloomberg, investing, Yahoo Finance, Schwab
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