Go south, grab the money

In the past two days, there is a hot topic in the market, that is, public offering funds have left the A-share white horse group and began to move south on a large scale.

The Hang Seng Index has continued to rise since New Year's Day in 2021, and there has been a net inflow of tens of billions of dollars of capital going south every day, especially in recent days, which has continuously exceeded 20 billion +, and the market has indeed become hot.

Probably affected by this atmosphere, these days, the number of netizens consulting Hong Kong stocks to open accounts and Hong Kong stocks ETF investment has obviously become more and more, one by one anxious to run into the market to grab money.

But I would like to remind you that the money of Hong Kong stocks is not so easy to earn. I have millions of people who have been fired in Hong Kong stocks for two or three years. I can give you a brief introduction to the situation there.

There are about 2500 listed companies on the Hong Kong stock market, which is nearly half smaller than A-shares. Hong Kong stocks also have the phenomenon of hugging their heads, which is much more serious than A-shares. The market capitalization of Hong Kong stocks outstanding is 44.6 trillion yuan, of which the top 25 largest companies add up to 21 trillion.

1% of companies, accounting for 47% of the total size.

Among them, Tencent alone is 6 trillion yuan, accounting for 1 trillion of Hong Kong shares.

Hong Kong stocks look cheap, but in fact, they are also structural. popular companies such as Tencent, Meituan, AIA, HKEx and so on, like A-share white horse shares, rise year after year, and their valuations are definitely not low. As for the rest of the more than 95% of Hong Kong stocks, that is, the astonishing size of the dunghill family, there is no bottom line.

Price-to-earnings ratio of 5 times can fall to 3 times, price-to-book ratio of 0.8 can fall to 0.5, in the past few years in Hong Kong stocks to play low valuation bottom, no more money, no less shit.

To sum up, even those stocks that are very cheap in Hong Kong are also very cheap in A shares, and those stocks that are very expensive in A shares are also very expensive in Hong Kong. Tencent, Meituan, AIA and HKEx have all just set new record highs these days.

I have heard before that I cut the bottom by halving the waist and cutting the bottom by the knee. This wave has learned from Tian Ling Gai to copy the bottom. Picture

This is roughly the case. With the promotion of capital, Hong Kong stocks may continue to rise in the short term, but do not misunderstand that Hong Kong stocks are robbing money with their eyes closed. In fact, I have speculated in China, Hong Kong and the United States in the past few years. I feel that it is the most difficult for Hong Kong stocks to make money.There is a risk to say that there has been a high premium for ETF related to Hong Kong stocks in the market these days.

I cut a time-sharing chart of 513550, and I can see that there are two lines in the chart, the purple line is the net worth trend of the fund, and the white line is the stock price trend. Under normal circumstances, the white line should be affixed to the purple line, but today there is a deviation of more than 10%.

Usually the ETF premium is not too high, because if the premium is high, there will be arbitrage. However, the ETF of Hong Kong stocks is subject to foreign exchange control, and speculation in the market is too hot. when fund companies buy out of foreign exchange, they will be unable to arbitrage and the premium will soar indiscriminately in a short period of time.

There has been a similar situation in the Nasdaq ETF before, at one point, there was a 20 per cent premium, and investors with unknown circumstances suffered big losses when they bought it. In short, some small and medium-sized ETF investment should be vigilant against the risk of premium, or simpler, do not buy those who do not understand.

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White horse stocks today further pullback, Mao 20 index-1.98%, from the market capital performance point of view, the short-term adjustment is not over. These days I cut the meat with a blunt knife. It didn't plummet, but it fell a little every day. I just took a look at my position portfolio K line and spit back all the money I made in 2021.

Many netizens left messages asking if they can buy and get on the bus now. I suggest waiting. It is a trading habit not to pick up the knife when the left side falls. In the past few days, people are getting off one after another, so let them sell comfortably. When the performance of the combination is better than the average performance of the market again, then consider making a profit.

Another thing to pay attention to is that you don't want to buy it if you fall too much. in fact, it shows a big problem. For example, Yanghe's recent performance is very abnormal. I wondered if it could be increased when it was more than 200. As a result, I peed directly to 190. I don't want to buy this.

My experience is that stocks that resist falling during a pullback will rise even more later. Pull back stocks that exceed expectations, don't be greedy for the bargain.

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1. Baosteel announced that it plans to buy back no more than 4 billion of its shares, and the repurchase price is capped at RMB 8.09. Baosteel is barely a "grass", but the problem is that the track is too traditional and unimaginative. The limit on the repurchase of 8.09 yuan is actually not high, only 20% of the space.

2. Dongcai Securities has a revenue of 4.595 billion in 2020, an increase of 77%, and a profit of 2.893 billion, an increase of 104%.

3. The Eurasian growth Fund, an offshore fund, reduced its 5.9% stake in Maotai to 7611804 shares at the end of the third quarter, with a new position of 7161704 shares. Many media have reported this news, but I have just calculated that the amount of reduction is only 900 million.?

[operation notes] official account new powder input YC3 to see the fishing basin introduction

CSI 300 continues YES, critical 5061

Gem continues to YES, critical 2843

CSC 500 continues YES, critical 6316

CSI Technology 931087 continues YES, critical 4866

Securities firm 399975 continues YES, criticality 901

CSMC 399967 continues YES, critical 12661

Chip index 990001 continues YES, critical 8923

The main rising wave of the white horse stock is over, and recently they all live with their belts on. That's it. I didn't trade, so I continued to cover.

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