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Aladdin’s Magic Lamp

My first share investment gave me fairly good returns. So yes, I can say that I do have Beginner’s Luck. My second and third returns got even better each time.

I thought I had Aladdin's Magic Lamp, ready to castles in the air.

The bubble had burst for my fourth. In one stoke, I had lost all profit I had ever made. The next day the market tumbled, eroding almost half my investment.

Along with the share prices, all my castles also had hit the rock bottom. Lesson learnt: Money saved is money earned.

In most endeavors, there is a direct correlation between efforts and results. The stock market does not quite work that way. You can do endless research, study charts, and know every nuance of the fundamentals but still have a negative result.

Traders are ultimately trying to predict the future, and when someone tries to do that, then Luck will be a major factor in determining the outcome.

Most traders underestimate the role of Luck in their trading process, and that is especially so when it is good luck. We are much more willing to attribute good results to skill and bad results to Luck. But, Luck is an equal opportunity employer, and it cuts both ways.

The main problem when we have good luck is that it can lead to overconfidence and drive us to think that we can replicate a great outcome through sheer willpower. It is very easy to ignore the role of Luck in a trade when we have spent countless hours contemplating it and thinking about it.

Overconfidence tends to produce bigger losses when the inevitable bad luck strikes again. We have been fooled into thinking we can always control the outcome when the reality is that Luck (good or bad) is always lurking.

Money management is essentially Luck management. The idea is to find a methodology that limits the damage of bad luck while compounding the benefit of good luck.

Luck : both good and bad - is your constant companion in trading. The more you embrace it and understand it, the better your chances of producing superior returns.

In some way, Trading is like a chess game. A game of wits. You must think hard before you make a move. The stakes are money. In order to win or lose, you have to enter the market and risk money.

It is better to realize that Luck is a double-edged sword. And, it is still better to rely on learned skills with only a quick nod of thanks to any Luck that might have been your ally.
Aladdin’s Magic Lamp
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