Too Pricy
$Snap Inc (SNAP.US)$ Looking at those previously mentioned earnings per share projections, the company is currently trading at very high multiples for a company facing such tough pressures in the longer run. Here's the breakdown by year:
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
EPS $0.36 $0.79 $1.62 $2.64 $3.65
P/E 216x 97.3x 47.7x 29.3x 21.2x
EPS $0.36 $0.79 $1.62 $2.64 $3.65
P/E 216x 97.3x 47.7x 29.3x 21.2x
There are two trains of thought from this point:
1 - Company will not grow. Given that a 20x to 30x multiple when growing earnings per share at a ~30% rate is very justified, the company's current share price is fair value for 2025, meaning a return on investment of 0%.
2 - Company is overvalued. The more likely scenario, given that I believe that the headwinds the company will face will force down projections from 2023 and beyond quite significantly, is that the company is overvalued at current levels.
The average of both those conclusions is that although the company may be overvalued, it's also likely that it will simply be trading sideways for a good part of the next 3-5 years. This presents a poor long-term investment and it concludes my neutral to slightly bearish position on Snap.
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poorlydrawnmcyt : Growth vs valuation is totally misaligned. Market agreed with you yesterday.