$Apple (AAPL.US)$I don't particularly like the risk/reward o...
$Apple(AAPL.US$ I don't particularly like the risk/reward of buying AAPL stock before earnings here. I've previously modeled about 7% annual returns for investors buying Apple at current prices– the present price implies about the same return. Once my largest holding, the increase in the price of AAPL since late 2019 has far outrun the actual capabilities of the business. I'd rate AAPL a hold here, with moderate long-run returns expected and some downside risk in the short-run from the ongoing supply chain chaos. Apple is expected to earn $5.63 in 2022, which would break its all-time record likely to be set when FY 2021 is reported on Thursday. With inflationary/supply chain pressures mounting and stimulus unwinding, I think the FY 2022 earnings estimates are probably a bit too optimistic for AAPL stock, and as such, the risk/reward isn't favorable at this time.
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Wyatt lincoln : If you wait on Apple, you lose. It’s really that simple. If you wait to time the market, you also lose. Fact is, Apple is the best run company in the world, has the most cash on hand, and is completely safe, because it outperforms everyone, even when things are down. In 5 years, it will be back at $500 and splitting; where will you be? On the sidelines or owning?
fly up high Wyatt lincoln : nice but the only problem I see is that if that happens it’ll make up 70% of my stock portfolio
Sacai Luis fly up high : And that's a problem how?