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Into the future

$UP Fintech(TIGR.US)$

To all bagholders, assume the worst is to happen - the company have to move out of China Mainland market (referring to China customer base) due to regulatory reasons.

Will the company get delisted?
My opinion is: not possible, the company still can make money from Hong Kong, US and Singapore market customer base.

What about getting a big fine from China?
Possible. however, the monetary damage will recover after it moved out of China mainland market eventually.

In the long term, the market will correct itself and it will eventually go uptrend.

In the short term, probably selling the stock right now is best because it will take time to recover.

So, will you hold for long term or just cut loss and let shortsellers earn?
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  • 坚决不再做韭菜 : the gov say operate without license is illegal, did they say not allow them to apply license or tell must move out?

  • divinepapa : China to delist entity listed in usa?

  • expecting what : ya doesnt even make sense.
    at this point the opinion is divided.
    the thing is, shorties want it as low as possible, and giving the reason of chinas "warning"
    also some sellers think that the face tt price is so violatile and can drop so much within mths = terrible company, a slippery slope
    also they r acting on the fact tt china govt is not issuing a clear stand now
    buyers base it on such a low price (tt shorters will disagree on) to buy in and with confidence that tigr will come up
    most are aware tt this share has 80% users overseas rendering many opinions silly
    and also with its record breaking profits

  • Invest and learn OP expecting what : Agree. Losing money can be emotional. Hope people thinking of selling can have the vision of the worst case scenario and analyse from that point, they can decide better whether this is the perfect time to sell or not.

  • Duskerdawn expecting what : Agreed. Most discussions are moot now. Short-term wise this share can trade at close to any lowest value from the market momentum. But intrinsically, the actual damage of the loss of the Chinese market/investors is limited.

    I honestly think to alleviate this problem in the interim, the company should do segment reporting (by region)

    This helps to boost the confidence of the investors and at the same time signal to the Chinese regulators that the number of clients they have are low and thus risk is lower so they may use the appropriate levels of regulating.

  • Larry Edelweiss Duskerdawn : Agreed. Also the fact that a lot of bag holders for this stock and Futu do not seem to understand the actual risks these companies are facing. Questions like whether their money is safe, or whether company will be shut down etc...show that many are ill-informed and any negative news will just amplify the bearish sentiments and selling pressure will pile up. Really tough situation. Until there's more clarity and people get less overly nervous with these, hard to have a breakout to previous levels

  • Duskerdawn Larry Edelweiss : Yups totally agreed. But I don't blame them for not understanding, I actually blame myself abit for not understanding how badly the herd can overreact.

    Also realised that people don't actually try to understand the back-end mechanisms of what they are using. Like they don't do due diligence on what is the coverage they have for each of the markets (US,SG,HK) when their brokerage goes bust. Or do a simple check on the balance sheet as well as the ratios to see the health of the brokerages they are using.

    All-in-all it's a good learning experience for me, though emotionally painful in the short run. "what doesn't kill you makes you stronger"[undefined]

  • 102169479 : There's a enticing possibility that it will get delist. If the share price is low causing an attractive low market cap, I would advise futu and tiger management to execute leverage buyout (taking a loan or angel investor) and take the company private and ipo in the future or in other country like SG which welcome investment. This would reap enormous profit for the company and regain full helm of the company without answerable to anyone or under scrutiny. At the same time they can avoid the stress of share price plunging and focus on the business. Retail investor would be wipe out and surrender their share at whatever residual value it is trade at. That's the best outcome for the company future imho

  • divinepapa 102169479 : A joke ? Deep dive the horizon at breadth and depth. Retrack likely draw toward death trap and shrink while the other suggest open to greater opportunities. Take the thteat as opportunity and positively you be seeing differently. Short fall for greater growth, worthy that provided strong financial require.

  • expecting what Duskerdawn : Agreed. I greatly underestimated how many people responded negatively to the news.
    Even as of coming Monday some think tt the share will crash (and convincing the rest along the way) when the privacy law is enacted although fundamentally the company stays the same while the rest think it will soar.
    i have no crystal ball to predict what comes Monday

Stock trading - a “waiting” activity that test your patience
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