Reviewing AMD's Quarter And Forward Guidance

Here are the highlights from each of AMD's business segments:
- AMD computing and graphics segment
- AMD Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-custom Segment

With its Ryzen, Radeon, and EPYC processors, AMD is winning market share across the CPU, GPU, and server (data center) markets. Over the last few years, AMD's products have been far superior to those of Intel's, and with a strong product roadmap, AMD looks good value for a greater chunk of the expanding semiconductor industry.

As the industry continues to grapple with supply shortages, AMD has focused its resources on higher-value chips. Naturally, AMD's gross margins have expanded significantly over the last few quarters. In Q3, AMD's gross margins improved by ~450 basis-points y/y to reach 48%. With a sharp rise in margins, AMD is delivering massive operating leverage, as evidenced by the ~111% y/y jump in operating income. As you can see below, AMD's operating margins have risen from 16% (Q3 2020) to 22% (Q3 2021). Overall, AMD's business is firing on all cylinders with rapid sales growth, massive margin expansion, and a big jump in profitability.

As it turns into a cash printing machine, AMD's balance sheet is turning into a fortress. At the end of Q3, AMD had cash balances of ~$3.6B with total debt of just ~0.3B. After teetering near bankruptcy at the start of the 2010s, it is fair to say that AMD has come leaps and bounds. Right now, AMD looks very well-positioned (from a financial and technological perspective) to win a more significant market share in a secular growth industry. With ample cash on its balance sheet, AMD used nearly all of its free cash flow on repurchasing shares as the company bought ~$750M worth of its own stock in Q3. In the future, we can expect these buybacks to become a routine affair.

For Q4, AMD is guiding for $4.4-4.6B in revenue on higher gross and operating margins of 49.5% and 25%, respectively. Hence, AMD's business momentum is likely to continue in the next quarter.

When answering questions from an analyst on the earnings call, Dr. Lisa Su, AMD's CEO, said that the semiconductor shortages might end in 2022, and while competitive pressures are rising, she is confident in AMD's product roadmap. Furthermore, she affirmed that the demand environment is set to remain strong throughout 2022, with data center demand coming in hot, while the PC market is expected to remain flattish.

Although AMD's management stopped short of guiding for 2022, the company is likely to deliver rapid growth next year too (my estimate is ~25% y/y (tough comps)). With a strong leadership team at the helm, AMD is rapidly turning into a dominant semiconductor company. I am not convinced about AMD's ability to maintain its margins in 2022 due to growing expectations of a price war (and more competitive products) from Intel. Regardless, I see AMD as a secular growth stock with massive potential. With all of this information in mind, let us now attempt to find AMD's fair value and expected returns to see if it is a good investment.