MRNA Q&A Q3 2021: expect to deliver 700 to 800 million doses in 2021

Q&A is a session under a company's earnings conference that institutional and retail investors ask some most-concerned questions to the management. On this page, you may discover info that might affect the stock price in the following weeks. $Moderna (MRNA.US)$

Key Takeaways:

Attitudes: some Q4 deliveries may still move to early 2022. In 2022 there might be a large volume, but way lower than what the commercial market could drive.

Goals: expect to deliver 700 to 800 million doses in 2021. This compares to the prior outlook of 800 million to 1 billion doses.

For 2022, can you walk through the supply aspects. Are you still guiding to up to 3 billion doses here?

Yes, we could see make up to 3 billion doses in terms of material. As you know, that number was really depending on the booster dose. And now that we're on the other side of that decision with the 50-microgram dose, we confirmed we could make up to 3 billion doses, if there was a need for it. The challenge in 2022 is going to really be around product form because as the market moves to an endemic market, you're going to need basically vials to be able to go to less number of dose per vile.

You lowered 2021 a little bit, I think, by 5 billion, but raised 2022, 2022 by 5 billion. Is that a timing shift of deliveries? And how much of that is just option contracts as you think about 2022?

On '21, so there's two things I think that is driving, first is, of course the lower volume. And the second one is price. As you know, we are working very hard with several governments to send products that they have bought for high-income countries like the U.S. to low-income country this side of Christmas. When we announced our African Union partnership, the U.S. decided to delay to Q2, the delivery over December quarter. That volume is going to African Union at a low tier price. And some orders that are moving from December to January on the supply volume side of things.

Given your comments on the call about potentially moving into the endemic phase by the second half of next year. Should we think about 2022 revenue as being weighted toward the first half of the year?

On the endemic and the ventilation of the sales over the year, I think it will be dangerous to assume at this stage one way or other in terms of first half and second half because of volume and also pricing. As you get a sense, the COVAX, the African Union and some BARDA deals we have are lower prices. And so there might be a large volume, but probably way lower than what the commercial market could drive, which we believe is going to be above what has been the pandemic price again because of volume. I would be cautioned that assuming Q1 to be lower and Q2 is a bit too early.

Just curious on the guidance for the 2 billion guidance for the U.S. fall 2022 booster market. Can you help us understand what assumptions are sort of built into that number?

So on the fall of '22, so the commercial team has spent quite a lot of time modeling different assumptions in terms of volume of people who want the boost, market share, and, of course, pricing. I cannot comment further for competitive reason right now, especially on the pricing piece, but we will do that in due time. But indeed it's typical commercial analysis that the team that has done many times before in other companies have run through the last few months.

How much perspective can you give us on you're able to potentially compete for share on contracting in EU, the competitor Pfizer/BioNTech locked in pretty large contracts on volume for the next two years?

The other vaccines that other than mRNA, I'm not sure, used anymore as my understanding, they're mostly given through COVAX. I think we have an interesting opportunity because as I shared you talk to healthcare leaders, health minister, as you get more and more data that Paul shared, we have a better and better understanding that the two mRNA vaccines are not the same. And so again, as we look into 2022, we already have a contract with Europe in '22. And we are discussing also with country by country on the data and using the benefit of the Moderna vaccine versus the other one.

This article is a script from the Q&A session of MRNA earnings call on Nov 2. In order to facilitate reading, we have made appropriate cuts. If you want to know more details, you can click here for details.

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kat kukuuu : Are these figures optimistic?

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Johnnie Worker kat kukuuu : It should be bad… like really bad

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Johnnie Worker : Maybe we should run

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