Oil and Gas Exploration Is Fading

In part, that’s because environmental, social and governance (ESG) pressures are stifling investment in oil and gas.

Investment in oil, gas and coal has been subdued for several years (Display, below). Companies are under pressure to return cash to shareholders and invest in energy transition businesses rather than fossil fuels. What’s more, hydrocarbon energy investments have a long lead time and capex has been insufficient to maintain medium-term production, further complicating transition planning efforts.

Capex peaked in 2014, bottomed in 2016, but then fell further in 2020 and is expected to be flat over the next five years.

Effectively the world is living off major investment decisions in oil and gas that were made before the oil price fall in 2015. If nothing changes, hydrocarbons markets could tighten even more, triggering even higher-than-expected price hikes.

Investors have been deterred from the energy sector for two reasons. First, perceived ESG concerns may lead to further derating. In fact, deteriorating support for the sector has pushed oil stocks to extremely low valuations with a price/free cashflow ratio near 25-year lows (Display, below). Second, a collapse in demand for hydrocarbons may leave unused reserves “stranded” and effectively worthless.

In our view, stranded asset fears are misplaced. We think energy stock prices are predominantly valued on a discounted cash flow analysis based on existing projects; that means no value is placed on fields that aren’t yet producing or will produce soon. Most oil and gas companies have about a 10-year reserve life - a period in which fossil fuels will be critical for a smooth energy transition and short enough for investors in select oil and gas stocks to receive satisfactory returns. And if investor aversion continues to act as an additional brake on investment, energy prices will remain high, buoying cash returns to shareholders.