Segmented Impact
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ I contend that Nvidia's revenue growth momentum in Q3 could remain at elevated levels. The chipmaker generates revenue from essentially five end markets, out of which its gaming and data center markets collectively account for over 83% of the company's total revenue. Interestingly, both these segments are experiencing their respective share of positive catalysts that can drive the overall company's sales to new highs.
In the gaming segment, Nvidia launched Lite Hash Rate (or LHR) cards in May earlier this year. These cards offer reduced crypto mining performance so that only actual gamers are interested in buying these cards and their supplies aren't overrun by miners. Since this entirely new line of SKUs, and the supplies ramped up throughout Q3, it's likely going to boost Nvidia's gaming revenue on a sequential basis.
Secondly, GPU prices remained at elevated levels throughout the quarter. Sure, there were some fluctuations but the list prices, overall, trended up during the quarter. These incremental dollars are likely going to boost Nvidia's gaming revenue in Q3. The current list prices are significantly higher compared to the levels seen last quarter, and if these prices prevail, then Nvidia's gaming segment stands to benefit in Q4 as well.
Lastly, the chart above highlights that Nvidia's revenue under its gaming segment is typically stronger in Q3's, compared to prior Q2's, due to cyclical factors. So, overall, I estimate the segment's revenue to rise higher by roughly single digits (~8%) sequentially and amount to $3.3 billion in Q3.
Its data center segment seems well poised to post a yet another record high. Its A30 and A10 server GPU cards were launched in April and its management disclosed in their Q2 earnings call that these new inference cards were instrumental in driving data center sales to record levels. Around the same timeline, the chipmaker stared shipping its BlueField 2 DPU accelerators to better compete with $Intel(INTC.US$ , $Xilinx(XLNX.US$ and $Broadcom(AVGO.US$ . Since B2B qualification cycles are typically long, I expect the sales momentum for these new products to build up during Q3 and Q4 (like here). I estimate this segment will register a moderate sequential growth of mid-single digits (~5%) and its Q3 revenues would amount to $2.48 billion.
Its other remaining three end-markets, namely professional visualization, auto and OEM/IP, don't have material catalysts lined up that would cause a notable fluctuation in their revenue. Hence, I estimate them to more or less remain flat quarter on quarter. This brings us to a company-wide record revenue of $6.87 billion, which would be up 45% year over year and up 5.6% sequentially. Coincidentally, my estimate lines up with the Street's estimates spanning from $6.8 billion to $6.96 billion.
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kat kukuuu : In the past 5 years, Nvidia’s actual results have consistently exceeded analysts’ expectations and have exceeded Wall Street’s revenue expectations for 10 consecutive quarters.
ViViiAnnnnn : It’s good to be long NVDA!!
areecep : I don't think the meat of the article qualifies as a "problem" for long-term investors in NVDA. For short-term traders, maybe -- the author's focus seems to be on share price "in coming days or weeks" as per the final paragraph. Possibly it was just a poor choice of title for the article.
美投讲美股 areecep : Eexactly.
By all means, the next 90 day's revenue is the key indicator of this company's growth outlook! /s
Subhasini : is it too late to buy this?
102980383_PP : K