Why follow macro forecasters who don't disclose track records?

Howard Marks is a real master of investment. To appreciate his valuable thoughts, I amgoing to share his investment memos with my own ideas. This is the third section about macro.

Back in the 1970s, an elder told Marks, 'an economist is a portfolio manager who never marks to market,' and that description still seems highly appropriate. Have your ever heard an economist or macro strategist say, 'I think there'll be a recession soon (and xx% of my recession predictions have turned out to be right within a year)'?

Would anyone invest with an investment manager who didn't publish a track record? Why follow macro forecasters who don't disclose theirs?

I want to point out that the same comments apply to most investors. You rarely hear them say they have no idea what the macro future holds or beg off from expressing opinions.

One of the most important requirements for success in investing is self-assessment. What are your strenghts and weaknesses? If you invest on the basis of you macro views, how often have they helped? Is it something tou should keep doing or discontinue?

Indeed, macro is important but unpredictable. For your investment, it is useless.