Interesting hypothesis that I have now
My youtube channel:-
I was questioning if Chinese stocks are starting to move inversely as compared to the US stocks... My readers and viewers of youtube channel know that I have repeatedly mentioned about the Renminbi internationalisation as well as what are the lessons that we can learn from the stock market crash in Chinese markets back in 2015/2016.
Now Nasdaq 100 are showing slight signs of fatigue with pull-back from 16300 to around 15,650.. As for the Dow futures, it has fallen back down after hitting 36,000 with a recent low of 33,700... Now its back up as well as S&P futures up. My thesis right now is if US stocks are to fall further, there may be a chance for Chinese stocks to go back up slightly or at least hold. Why? For the long only funds and equity funds, which need its portfolio to be almost 100% in equity, they have to find something to buy isnt it?
As long as their investment mandate is a global mandate equity portfolio, then any sharp fall in US tech stocks or other brick and mortar US stocks, i.e. retail, hotel, airline, etc may lead to a stabilisation of Chinese stocks in US. We shall see if my hypothesis is right.
But you have to bear in mind that I dont have an algorithm model or supercomputer to test all datapoints.
As always, this should not be construed as any investment or trading advice.
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Afrin Banu : good
styleomileo : This hypothesis is flawed because the US China relations has turned for the worse. So many trading barbs across both countries despite Biden Xi meet, as both need to pander to domestic audiences. Delisting fears remain, with US bent on punitive measures on China in Uighur, Taiwan, HK, etc. Not helped by chinese government clampdowns on chinese tech, property and education sector... It will take bold leaders to move beyond domestic agenda to have positives on both sides as far as Chinese stocks are concerned.
fchao92 : Y