What to expect in the week ahead (ADBE, FDX, RIVN, LEN)

Stock futures held steady in overnight trading Sunday after the S&P 500 notched its best week since February at a fresh record close, rebounding from a big sell-off triggered by fears of the omicron coronavirus variant.

The overnight action followed a strong week on Wall Street as investors shrugged off a hot inflation reading. The blue-chip Dow gained 4% last week, breaking a four-week losing streak with its best weekly performance since March. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 3.8% and 3.6%, respectively, last week, both posting their best weekly performance since early February.

Investors digested a jump in headline inflation data, which came in at 6.8% in November year-over-year for the biggest surge since 1982. The print was marginally higher than the 6.7% Dow Jones estimate.

Investors this week are set to focus on the Federal Reserve's final monetary policy decision of 2021, which may include more signaling of a monetary policy adjustment amid elevated inflation and a strengthening economic backdrop.

Members of the Federal Open Market Committee are set to hold their two-day policy-setting meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, after which they will release their monetary policy statement and hold a press conference with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The December statement will also be accompanied by an updated Summary of Economic Projections — the first since September — outlining members' expectations for economic conditions and interest rates over the next few years.

Many economists now expect that this month's meeting will serve as the platform for Fed officials to increase the rate of tapering of their asset-purchase program. For more than a year-and-a-half during the pandemic, the Fed bought Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) at a clip of $120 billion per month, with this program comprising a key tool in supporting the virus-stricken economy. Last month, the Fed began winding down this program, slowing its purchases by $15 billion per month in each of November and December as the economy showed signs that it could continue to recover from the pandemic without the added monetary policy support.

One key piece of economic data out this week will be November retail sales, offering a look at the strength of the consumer in the midst of the holiday shopping season.

Consensus economists are expecting to see retail sales rise by 0.8% in November compared to October, according to Bloomberg data. This would slow compared to October's 1.7% monthly increase, but still represent a fourth straight monthly increase.

"The gain should be supported by holiday sales with clothing showing the biggest sequential gain among major sectors," Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer estimated in a note on Friday. "That said, we do think the risks are skewed to the downside given the sizable upside surprise in October's sales."

The bigger-than-expected rise in retail sales in October stemmed from strength in a variety of categories. Non-store retailers, or e-commerce platforms, posted a 4% sales increase, while gasoline station sales and electronics and appliance stores saw sales grow 3.9% and 3.8%, respectively. Some economists suggested the monthly jump likely stemmed from consumers doing their holiday shopping earlier this year to try and get ahead of supply chain disruptions and shipping delays.

Other private data on consumption for November came in strong, further suggesting another solid monthly rise in retail sales. Adobe Analytics said in an update published Nov. 30 that consumers had already spent $109.8 billion online between Nov. 1 to Nov. 29, with this figure growing 11.9%, compared to last year.

- Monday: No notable reports scheduled for release

- Tuesday: NFIB Small Business Optimism, November (98.4 expected, 98.2 in October); Producer Price Index (PPI), month-over-month, November (0.5% expected, 0.6% in October); PPI excluding food and energy, month-over-month, November (0.4% expected, 0.4% in October); PPI year-over-year, November (9.2% expected, 8.6% in October); PPI excluding food and energy, year-over-year, November (6.8% expected, 6.8% in October)

- Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended Dec. 10 (2.0% during prior week); Retail sales excluding autos and gas, month-over-month, November (0.8% expected, 1.4% in October); Import price index, month-over-month, November (0.8% expected, 1.2% in October); Business Inventories, October (1.0% expected, 0.7% in September); NAHB Housing Market Index, December (84 expected, 83 in November); FOMC Rate Decision

- Thursday: Initial jobless claims, week ended Dec. 11 (199,000 expected, 184,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended Dec. 4 (1.992 million during prior week); Housing starts, month-over-month, November (3.3% expected, -0.7% in October); Building permits, month-over-month, November (0.4% expected, 4.2% in October); Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index, December (30.0 expected, 39.0 in November); Industrial Production, month-over-month, November (0.7% expected, 1.6% in October); Capacity Utilization, November (76.8% expected, 76.4% in October); Manufacturing Production, November (0.7% expected, 1.2% in October); Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI, December preliminary (58.5 expected, 58.3 in November); Markit U.S. Composite PMI, December preliminary (57.2 in November); Markit U.S. Services PMI, December preliminary (58.0 in November); Kansas City Federal Reserve Manufacturing Activity, December (24 in November)

- Friday: No notable reports scheduled for release

- Monday: No notable reports scheduled for release

- Tuesday: No notable reports scheduled for release