BlackRock favors Chinese assets in 2022 outlook

Molly wealth talk joined discussion · Dec 14, 2021 18:18

We are entering a new market regime unlike any in the past half century: We see another year of positive equity returns coupled with a down year for bonds. But BlackRock have dialed back our risk-taking given the wide range of potential outcomes in 2022.

The global investment manager--BlackRock published 2022 Global Outlook 'Thriving in a new market regime' and offered three investment themes and suggestion.

BlackRock favors Chinese assets in 2022 outlook. Meanwhile, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Bridgewater, Fedility, Vanguard and other Wallstreet insitutions bullish on China.

01 Living with inflation

We expect inflation to be persistent and settle above pre-Covid levels. We expect central banks to kick off rate hikes but remain more tolerant of price pressures, keeping real interest rates historically low and supportive of risk assets.

Implication: prefer equities over fixed income and remain overweight inflation- linked bonds.

Source: BlackRock

02 Cutting through confusion

A unique mix of events – the restart, new virus strains, supply-driven inflation and new central bank frameworks – could cause markets and policymakers to misread inflation. We keep the big picture in mind but acknowledge risks – to the upside and downside - around our core view.

Implication: trim risk amid an unusually wide range of outcomes.

03 Navigating net zero

The journey for the world to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 is happening now, and is part of the inflation story. We believe a smooth transition is the least inflationary outcome, yet even this still amounts to a supply shock playing out over decades.

Implication: favor developed market (DM) equities over emerging markets (EM).

Meanwhile,Blackrock said they see a significant shift in China's overall policy stance toward greater state intervention and social objectives, even at the occasional expense of growth. The regulatory clampdown and tighter policy stance that rattled global investors in 2021 made that shift clear.

Yet we believe the low starting point of global investor allocations to Chinese assets is at odds with the economy's growing heft in the world. We estimate current allocations in global portfolios point to an overly negative economic outlook in coming years- such as a long-lasting growth shock akin to Japan in the 1990s.
We maintain our long-term overweight to Chinese assets relative to low global allocations. We assume greater regulation over a strategic horizon as China balances social and economic mobjectives – one reason we bake in materially higher uncertainty and risk premia for China compared with DM markets.
We recognize the risks, yet see current valuations as offering eligible investors adequate compensation for them.