Here is when the next recession may happen, says Deutsche Bank

$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ When the Fed begins its long-awaited bond-tapering program as it seeks to tame red-hot inflation, the clock starts ticking on when the U.S. might see another recession.

Or so says strategists at Deutsche Bank.

The investment bank predicts the Federal Reserve will accelerate the purchase of its bond purchases in 2022 (and then quickly), opening the door for the first interest rate hike of this economic cycle as early as March.

With that first hike and the end of the tapering program — and ensuing tighter lending conditions — the strategists think the economy will begin cooling down beyond 2024. Then, recession risk will creep into the economic picture for the first time since early on in the pandemic.

"The median and average time to the next recession is 37 and 42 months after the first hike. So that takes us to July 2025 and December 2025 respectively. The earliest gap over 13 cycles is 11 months and that would take us to May 2023," explains Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid.

Part of the content is taken from Yahoo.