How Much Revenue Could Pfizer's Oral COVID-19 Pill Fetch?

$Pfizer (PFE.US)$ announced Wednesday its oral COVID-19 antiviral pill, Paxlovid, has been authorized for use by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

The Pfizer Analysts: SVB Leerink analyst Geoffrey Porges has a Market Perform rating and a $52 price target for Pfizer.

BofA Securities analyst Geoff Meacham maintained a Neutral rating and a $59 price target.

Broad Label, Increased Supply To Give Pfizer Dominant Market Position: Pfizer received the nod for the oral COVID-19 treatment ahead of $Merck & Co (MRK.US)$ , which submitted its application for its molnupiravir more than a month ahead of Pfizer, Porges said in a note.

The analyst sees the increase in Pfizer's expected supply of Paxlovid to 120 million courses next year as significant. The company will sell and distribute most of these courses, resulting in revenue well in excess of SVB Leerink's current forecast of $24 billion in Paxlovid sales in 2022 and $33 billion in 2023, the analyst said.

Revenue contribution will drop to $10 billion in 2024, the analyst said. This total $67 billion in Paxlovid sales estimated for 2022-'24 is well above consensus, he added.

Paxlovid Should Remain A Steady Contributor, BofA Says: There should be no problem selling every course of Paxlovid Pfizer makes in 2022, BofA analyst Meacham said. The lag time between production and shipping/revenue recognition means Pfizer won't recognize the revenue from every dose in 2022, he added.