$Lucid Group (LCID.US)$ I’m observing a lot of fear and pani...
$Lucid Group (LCID.US)$ I’m observing a lot of fear and panic amongst many investors of LCID, worried that it will continue to fall further more, exacerbates by some misleading posts, so I’ve decided to share my view on LCID current situation to bring a clearer picture for you to make a sounder decision whether to keep or sell. Firstly, it is a fact that its price has fallen a lot since its zenith, due to a series of unfortunate event, starting from omicron, convertible notes and the most impacting SEC investigation. It is mainly becos of the investigation that is causing LCID price to hover now.
Reasons being the possibility of getting fined US$100 mil+, which was what nikola got and the verdict is not known yet and that can take up to a year. With the uncertainty, Wall Street experts fully exploited it to short the price down. However I’m going to share a few reasons from both technical and fundamental analyses on why I think it should not be falling much further than it’s current range of price. Let’s look at technical aspect first. If you take a close look, you will realised that for more than 2 weeks the price has been hovering around this range. Many times recently shortists tried to pull it down further but was always met with counter, for a good reason. There are also many who understand that this is already a pretty undervalued price for LCID and has been supported. Such hovering is called consolidation in trading and the usual trend for this is that the longer it consolidates, the faster and higher it will surge when the time comes. LCID next strong support line after $38 is at $34 but so far it has been doing well staying afloat and far from $34. FYI if it breaks, it will continue down to the next at $28 but very unlikely becos that was the preproduction price. Even $30 is hard to sell. More likely it will continue to hover btw $36 to $40. If you look at moomoo analysis of LCID, you can see that it’s being oversold, a sign that it is way below its deserving price range.
From fundamental POV, it has reached mass production stage and still expanding, it has large cash esp with the convertible notes(actually a good news if we look at long term) and many more reasons. Someone posted way below on the 30+ reasons why LCID is strong, go search for that. Lazy to type them out and that is much more detailed. So with these many reasons, it’s highly unlikely to fall below $34.
My friend asked me do we need to wait for 1 year for SEC verdict then? My answer is NO. the price fall has already factored in this news and the 2 main reasons why it is still hovering despite Christmas rally is:
1. Experts are making use of retailer traders’ ignorance to drive fear and prevent buyers and even creating sellers to cut losses.
2. There is no good news to reverse this. FOR NOW. LCID is a new company with many plans for expansions and its CEO has been making good with his words to follow through with all his plans. He never over delivers his promises so far. If that’s anything to believe in, we should be sure that there will be more news of its progress, which are generally good news soon, beginning of next year.
Also from my understanding, Nikola has a messy management as compared to LCID(read the list of good points). Nikola was fined for overselling its company ideas and plan, manipulating the market unnecessarily, causing the price to surge a lot. And they kept failing to deliver what they had planned to do. I can’t say if LCID will be fined or not but the management team is doing a very stable and steady job, very diff style from nikola. But even really fined by SEC I don’t think will fall much further becos price already fell a lot to prepare for the news yet will surge again if it is good news.
So my personal advice is to hold and wait for it to go up again. I don’t know how long that will be but definitely faster than you think. That’s just my view, I may be wrong. Decide for yourself at the end of the day, don’t just take my words for it.
On a side note. My friend sent me a news article about law firms in US, gathering people to sue LCID and other companies for losses in stock.
https://newsfilter.io/articles/investigation-alert-did-you-lose-money-on-your-investment-johnson-fistel-llp-encourages-investors-to-9c2028f56c7738efa85b0f17fe07c320?src=2&futusource=news_stock_stockpagenews&clientver=11.32.4418&main_broker=WzEwMDhd&user_id_type=3&data_ticket=2398e4db9f32f844b35d3906165b5c2a&channel=4&clientlang=2&clienttype=53&user_main_broker=WzNd&is_visitor=0&skintype=3
This is super common, we are talking about US, they sue for torts every other days with whatever they can squeeze out of. The verdict is still on the judge, and maybe jurisdiction members? When I was in US, one of the most ads I saw on TV is law firm asking people to call them for reparation or torts or claims etc. FYI as long as they think they have a case, they will try it. The claimant doesn’t need to pay anything but if win the case, law firm takes 40% cut of the compensation.
Hence, they will try to gather as many people as possible to earn the 40%! These lawyers who do torts usually earn so much that they can buy private jet. Imagine each person awarded $50000(not particularly on LCID, just in general), and they gathered 2000 people. The comm will be super huge! And as long as the company is really shady in some parts, they stand a good chance. But as I’ve said, I don’t think LCID is shady even in the case of SPAC listing. So this doesn’t conclude as a negative news, it’s just another piece of neutral news but many may see it as negative becos they are unfamiliar with how US law system works.
Read John Grisham’s ‘Kings of Torts’ if you are keen to learn more about such practice. Ok, that’s all for my view on LCID’s current situation, I hope it helps to clear some doubts and uncertainty you may have when deciding what to do with LCID. Happy New Year and have a blast!
Reasons being the possibility of getting fined US$100 mil+, which was what nikola got and the verdict is not known yet and that can take up to a year. With the uncertainty, Wall Street experts fully exploited it to short the price down. However I’m going to share a few reasons from both technical and fundamental analyses on why I think it should not be falling much further than it’s current range of price. Let’s look at technical aspect first. If you take a close look, you will realised that for more than 2 weeks the price has been hovering around this range. Many times recently shortists tried to pull it down further but was always met with counter, for a good reason. There are also many who understand that this is already a pretty undervalued price for LCID and has been supported. Such hovering is called consolidation in trading and the usual trend for this is that the longer it consolidates, the faster and higher it will surge when the time comes. LCID next strong support line after $38 is at $34 but so far it has been doing well staying afloat and far from $34. FYI if it breaks, it will continue down to the next at $28 but very unlikely becos that was the preproduction price. Even $30 is hard to sell. More likely it will continue to hover btw $36 to $40. If you look at moomoo analysis of LCID, you can see that it’s being oversold, a sign that it is way below its deserving price range.
From fundamental POV, it has reached mass production stage and still expanding, it has large cash esp with the convertible notes(actually a good news if we look at long term) and many more reasons. Someone posted way below on the 30+ reasons why LCID is strong, go search for that. Lazy to type them out and that is much more detailed. So with these many reasons, it’s highly unlikely to fall below $34.
My friend asked me do we need to wait for 1 year for SEC verdict then? My answer is NO. the price fall has already factored in this news and the 2 main reasons why it is still hovering despite Christmas rally is:
1. Experts are making use of retailer traders’ ignorance to drive fear and prevent buyers and even creating sellers to cut losses.
2. There is no good news to reverse this. FOR NOW. LCID is a new company with many plans for expansions and its CEO has been making good with his words to follow through with all his plans. He never over delivers his promises so far. If that’s anything to believe in, we should be sure that there will be more news of its progress, which are generally good news soon, beginning of next year.
Also from my understanding, Nikola has a messy management as compared to LCID(read the list of good points). Nikola was fined for overselling its company ideas and plan, manipulating the market unnecessarily, causing the price to surge a lot. And they kept failing to deliver what they had planned to do. I can’t say if LCID will be fined or not but the management team is doing a very stable and steady job, very diff style from nikola. But even really fined by SEC I don’t think will fall much further becos price already fell a lot to prepare for the news yet will surge again if it is good news.
So my personal advice is to hold and wait for it to go up again. I don’t know how long that will be but definitely faster than you think. That’s just my view, I may be wrong. Decide for yourself at the end of the day, don’t just take my words for it.
On a side note. My friend sent me a news article about law firms in US, gathering people to sue LCID and other companies for losses in stock.
https://newsfilter.io/articles/investigation-alert-did-you-lose-money-on-your-investment-johnson-fistel-llp-encourages-investors-to-9c2028f56c7738efa85b0f17fe07c320?src=2&futusource=news_stock_stockpagenews&clientver=11.32.4418&main_broker=WzEwMDhd&user_id_type=3&data_ticket=2398e4db9f32f844b35d3906165b5c2a&channel=4&clientlang=2&clienttype=53&user_main_broker=WzNd&is_visitor=0&skintype=3
This is super common, we are talking about US, they sue for torts every other days with whatever they can squeeze out of. The verdict is still on the judge, and maybe jurisdiction members? When I was in US, one of the most ads I saw on TV is law firm asking people to call them for reparation or torts or claims etc. FYI as long as they think they have a case, they will try it. The claimant doesn’t need to pay anything but if win the case, law firm takes 40% cut of the compensation.
Hence, they will try to gather as many people as possible to earn the 40%! These lawyers who do torts usually earn so much that they can buy private jet. Imagine each person awarded $50000(not particularly on LCID, just in general), and they gathered 2000 people. The comm will be super huge! And as long as the company is really shady in some parts, they stand a good chance. But as I’ve said, I don’t think LCID is shady even in the case of SPAC listing. So this doesn’t conclude as a negative news, it’s just another piece of neutral news but many may see it as negative becos they are unfamiliar with how US law system works.
Read John Grisham’s ‘Kings of Torts’ if you are keen to learn more about such practice. Ok, that’s all for my view on LCID’s current situation, I hope it helps to clear some doubts and uncertainty you may have when deciding what to do with LCID. Happy New Year and have a blast!
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102884669 : Thank you for your analysis and suggestions!![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
Devilton OP : FYI the person who posted the long list of LCID advantages is called @Stitch-fu.
Devilton OP 102884669 : You're welcome, I'll do my best to help if I can. Anyway, I have nothing to lose, except for a little while to write this. hehe!
102355763 : Most of the EV stocks are red anyway, why worry so much about LCID only?![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
Pochong : I hope LCID can go down further. So I can buy more.