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$QuantumScape (QS.US)$
After the daily MACD of QS on Monday, December 27th, EST, started to emit a technical signal indicating a divergence, QS continued to decline for three consecutive days, forming the K-line combination of the three black crows indicating bearish sentiment in the 'Takuri War Strategy' as mentioned. Just when people thought it was going to continue to fall, Thursday, December 30th saw a rare intraday surge exceeding 7%, with a closing increase of 5.08%. This indicates that in the multi-dimensional causal game, the bottom divergence technical factor is stronger than other technical factors.
With an increase of +5.08%, especially an intraday surge exceeding 7% at one point, some people who easily get excited about a rise shout "continue to force short covering and rise, thanks to the fuel from the shorts, let's see if it can break through the 40 resistance level first." QS directly opened lower on Friday, December 31st, with occasional highs during the day, but ended in a pullback, and each high during the session was lower, closing at 22.19, almost at the intraday low of 22.14.
This recent decline led to the profit chip distribution chart where the proportion of profit chips was directly compressed to only 5.47%, far exceeding the standard that the proportion of profit chips should be below 10%-20% for rebound, and it is below 10%. The probability and strength of this rebound will be quite significant.
If we also consider the bottom divergence technical signal emitted by the daily MACD, the market after New Year's Day is likely to experience a significant upward movement.
Conclusion: By establishing a mathematical physics model for QS to quantitatively analyze stock price fluctuations and technical indicators, combined with traditional technical analysis, the most probable trajectory of QS stock price fluctuations after New Year's Day is high opening, rising, retracing from the high, and then revisiting the bottom journey. The extreme value of the bottom range is approximately 19.12, and the median value of the bottom range is 20.32. Currently, none of the K-line combinations of QS meet the sufficient necessary conditions for classical bottom, namely at least one or two medium or large positive candles with a certain volume. It seems that by the time QuantumScape officially announces the success of its solid-state battery project, it will be too late for many to afford the soaring stock price, maybe only able to buy a small amount of QS stocks, as U.S. stocks do not have price limit up or down restrictions, only circuit breakers, mainly to prevent crashes, not violent increases, which are basically unrestricted. Before that, there will certainly be a lot of signs appearing.
Therefore, what you currently see in the QS daily chart is the bottom. After several years, when the bottom-marking large positive candle is drawn, the current so-called bottom pattern has already instantaneously shrunk into a few insignificant K-line combinations. The K-line chart group at the bottom left of the QS daily chart you see now, with an initial listing of 9.74, like an inconspicuous island, directly gap opened high at 16.20 on Thursday, September 3, 2020, closing at 18.74. It doubled up easily. Has QS been soaring since then? The answer is no. On Friday, October 30, 2020, QS opened high and fell low, with a low of 11.25 and closed at 11.80, just a step away from 9.74. I believe many people started to flee in accordance with their own customs and habitual thinking to deceive themselves. This is what it is: a pathetic sight, when mud can't stick to the wall. It was reported by the media on November 12, 2020, that Stanley Whittingham, the 2019 Nobel Prize laureate in chemistry, as a third party, expressed a very high professional evaluation of QuantumScape's solid-state battery project. After the media report, the sensitive Wall Street never lacked funds and almost exploded, with a stock price almost vertical to rise, peaking at 132.73, then starting to overcorrect, almost vertically to fall. Around 40 is almost the boundary between bulls and bears, with some very important gaps. The lowest point QS has experienced so far is 19.12, with a financial institution on Wall Street predicting the volatility domain of QS as 19.65-32.33, at least indicating that they also believe it will be difficult to exceed around 40 in the short term. As for buying below 10 again, there is no technical basis, just wishful thinking, basically a one-sided indulgence. Buying on lows and dips, especially buying on significant dips, requires wisdom and extraordinary courage, not easy. It is determined by the weaknesses of human nature, greed, fear, and habitual thinking.
If you are interested in flipping through and carefully studying the growth history of AMZN, it was also a loss-making stock at first, and now the historical lowest price of 1.312 in the daily chart is nowhere to be found. In proportion to normalcy, the lowest price you can see in the daily chart is 1626.03, the 52-week low is 2881, the weekly chart low is 166.97, and only in the monthly chart you can find 1.312. The closing price of AMZN on December 31, 2021, was 3334.34, and the after-hours trading closing price was 3334.88.
Why mention AMZN? Because the mathematical models of AMZN and QS are very similar. As for why they are so similar to each other, who knows! I have no idea. Speaking of the starting point, they are both losing stocks, high-tech stocks, but QS's starting point is much higher than AMZN's.
Let's talk about the three cutting-edge technologies that will ignite Wall Street in 2022. Among them, there are well-known and incomprehensible investments in QuantumScape, QS. QS will not be discussed here for now.
1. Lithium battery concept: (1) The code is LAC, the current price is 29.12, the market cap is $3.48 billion, the main business is lithium mining exploration and production, the fair value is 18.38, the 12-month average target is 35.24 (up 30%). (2) The code is LTHM, the current price is 24.38, the market cap is $4.01 billion, the main business is lithium compound material manufacturing, the fair value is 15.52, the 12-month average target is 29.77.
2. Psychopharmaceutical research sector: Over the past few years, with the development of cannabis in pharmaceuticals and other fields, some hallucinogens that were once considered illegal drugs have attracted the attention of the medical community. This industry, still in its infancy, has received a lot of research support in the medical field.
Investors are interested in this sector for three reasons, including effective treatment of mental health, evolving legislation and regulatory improvements, and broad public support. Against the backdrop of the global pandemic, these types of drugs have become tools for treating deteriorating mental health. However, we still do not fully understand the impact of the pandemic on human mental health. In response to this issue, as long as companies seek massive investments in new medical methods, and encourage governments to take swift action to protect public mental health.
In this context, research based on such psychiatric drugs may be popular with international capital in 2022. (1) The code is MNMD, the current price is 1.38, the main business is the development and research of psychedelic drugs to improve health, promote health, and alleviate suffering. The fair value is 1.51, with a 12-month average target of 8.
3. Metaverse concept.
Although the concept of 'metaverse' is still controversial, ever since Facebook vowed to rebrand as Meta focusing on the 'metaverse,' investors have been extremely enthusiastic about this concept. Some analysts also believe that this will be the next revolution of the internet.
However, since the metaverse is still an unrealized vague concept, it is not easy for investors to choose good individual stock targets. However, in this industry, some companies may have lower risks compared to others.
In fact, many experts believe that instead of betting on companies directly related to the metaverse, it is better to focus on architectural platforms and the necessary technology companies for the metaverse. In this field, graphics card and computer chip manufacturers are an obvious good choice.
On one hand, even without the metaverse, chip stocks are currently in an ideal position, with artificial intelligence, cloud computing, data centers, etc., which may explode in 2022. On the other hand, software stocks can also play a role in the metaverse, having graphic technology crucial for metaverse art and technological creation.
(1). The symbol is NVDA, current price is 294.11, market cap is 750.03 billion USD, main business: semiconductor manufacturer, fair value: 222.13, 12-month average target is 360.17.
(2). The symbol is U, current price is 142.99, market cap is 42.24 billion, main business is software that helps create 3D environments,
fair value is 98.22, 12-month average target is 178.86.
(3). The symbol is MTTR, current price is 20.64, market cap is 5.39 billion, main business is virtual building replication technology, fair value is 14.18, 12-month average target: 32.33.
Summary and comments: I have my own stock selection philosophy. 1. I choose those with market demand and broad prospects. 2. I don't want so-called excellent blue chip star stocks that have already risen significantly. In my perception, rising prices accumulate risks, and falling prices release risks. No matter how good a stock is, if it rises too much, it will fall - it's all a mess. 3. I don't know why, but I just don't like biomedical stocks; the audience still has quite significant limitations. 4. I believe in getting what you pay for; expensive stocks have their reasons, and cheap stocks have theirs. I don't like very cheap stocks; single-digit stocks are generally not considered, as the quality may not be good.
So I'm giving up on the psychiatric pharmaceutical sector.
Next, let's talk about the metaverse concept sector. NVDA is indeed a good stock, but there are many better-performing star stocks within this sector, and furthermore, its stock price has fallen too little. In the future, if the USA stock indexes decline, its downward potential will not be small either. Let's wait for the market to misjudge before considering. Even if there is a misjudgment, it is necessary to buy the same undervalued but more promising star stocks.
The biggest issue with U and MTTR is that they have not fallen enough. U's closing price is 142.99, still at a loss.
In conclusion, I am still sticking with QS as the trading symbol, even though it keeps falling more than rising, which is quite annoying. Take it slow. The above is purely my personal opinion. We are strangers to each other, going our separate ways, let everyone do their own thing, stay safe. Have a happy New Year's Day.
After the daily MACD of QS on Monday, December 27th, EST, started to emit a technical signal indicating a divergence, QS continued to decline for three consecutive days, forming the K-line combination of the three black crows indicating bearish sentiment in the 'Takuri War Strategy' as mentioned. Just when people thought it was going to continue to fall, Thursday, December 30th saw a rare intraday surge exceeding 7%, with a closing increase of 5.08%. This indicates that in the multi-dimensional causal game, the bottom divergence technical factor is stronger than other technical factors.
With an increase of +5.08%, especially an intraday surge exceeding 7% at one point, some people who easily get excited about a rise shout "continue to force short covering and rise, thanks to the fuel from the shorts, let's see if it can break through the 40 resistance level first." QS directly opened lower on Friday, December 31st, with occasional highs during the day, but ended in a pullback, and each high during the session was lower, closing at 22.19, almost at the intraday low of 22.14.
This recent decline led to the profit chip distribution chart where the proportion of profit chips was directly compressed to only 5.47%, far exceeding the standard that the proportion of profit chips should be below 10%-20% for rebound, and it is below 10%. The probability and strength of this rebound will be quite significant.
If we also consider the bottom divergence technical signal emitted by the daily MACD, the market after New Year's Day is likely to experience a significant upward movement.
Conclusion: By establishing a mathematical physics model for QS to quantitatively analyze stock price fluctuations and technical indicators, combined with traditional technical analysis, the most probable trajectory of QS stock price fluctuations after New Year's Day is high opening, rising, retracing from the high, and then revisiting the bottom journey. The extreme value of the bottom range is approximately 19.12, and the median value of the bottom range is 20.32. Currently, none of the K-line combinations of QS meet the sufficient necessary conditions for classical bottom, namely at least one or two medium or large positive candles with a certain volume. It seems that by the time QuantumScape officially announces the success of its solid-state battery project, it will be too late for many to afford the soaring stock price, maybe only able to buy a small amount of QS stocks, as U.S. stocks do not have price limit up or down restrictions, only circuit breakers, mainly to prevent crashes, not violent increases, which are basically unrestricted. Before that, there will certainly be a lot of signs appearing.
Therefore, what you currently see in the QS daily chart is the bottom. After several years, when the bottom-marking large positive candle is drawn, the current so-called bottom pattern has already instantaneously shrunk into a few insignificant K-line combinations. The K-line chart group at the bottom left of the QS daily chart you see now, with an initial listing of 9.74, like an inconspicuous island, directly gap opened high at 16.20 on Thursday, September 3, 2020, closing at 18.74. It doubled up easily. Has QS been soaring since then? The answer is no. On Friday, October 30, 2020, QS opened high and fell low, with a low of 11.25 and closed at 11.80, just a step away from 9.74. I believe many people started to flee in accordance with their own customs and habitual thinking to deceive themselves. This is what it is: a pathetic sight, when mud can't stick to the wall. It was reported by the media on November 12, 2020, that Stanley Whittingham, the 2019 Nobel Prize laureate in chemistry, as a third party, expressed a very high professional evaluation of QuantumScape's solid-state battery project. After the media report, the sensitive Wall Street never lacked funds and almost exploded, with a stock price almost vertical to rise, peaking at 132.73, then starting to overcorrect, almost vertically to fall. Around 40 is almost the boundary between bulls and bears, with some very important gaps. The lowest point QS has experienced so far is 19.12, with a financial institution on Wall Street predicting the volatility domain of QS as 19.65-32.33, at least indicating that they also believe it will be difficult to exceed around 40 in the short term. As for buying below 10 again, there is no technical basis, just wishful thinking, basically a one-sided indulgence. Buying on lows and dips, especially buying on significant dips, requires wisdom and extraordinary courage, not easy. It is determined by the weaknesses of human nature, greed, fear, and habitual thinking.
If you are interested in flipping through and carefully studying the growth history of AMZN, it was also a loss-making stock at first, and now the historical lowest price of 1.312 in the daily chart is nowhere to be found. In proportion to normalcy, the lowest price you can see in the daily chart is 1626.03, the 52-week low is 2881, the weekly chart low is 166.97, and only in the monthly chart you can find 1.312. The closing price of AMZN on December 31, 2021, was 3334.34, and the after-hours trading closing price was 3334.88.
Why mention AMZN? Because the mathematical models of AMZN and QS are very similar. As for why they are so similar to each other, who knows! I have no idea. Speaking of the starting point, they are both losing stocks, high-tech stocks, but QS's starting point is much higher than AMZN's.
Let's talk about the three cutting-edge technologies that will ignite Wall Street in 2022. Among them, there are well-known and incomprehensible investments in QuantumScape, QS. QS will not be discussed here for now.
1. Lithium battery concept: (1) The code is LAC, the current price is 29.12, the market cap is $3.48 billion, the main business is lithium mining exploration and production, the fair value is 18.38, the 12-month average target is 35.24 (up 30%). (2) The code is LTHM, the current price is 24.38, the market cap is $4.01 billion, the main business is lithium compound material manufacturing, the fair value is 15.52, the 12-month average target is 29.77.
2. Psychopharmaceutical research sector: Over the past few years, with the development of cannabis in pharmaceuticals and other fields, some hallucinogens that were once considered illegal drugs have attracted the attention of the medical community. This industry, still in its infancy, has received a lot of research support in the medical field.
Investors are interested in this sector for three reasons, including effective treatment of mental health, evolving legislation and regulatory improvements, and broad public support. Against the backdrop of the global pandemic, these types of drugs have become tools for treating deteriorating mental health. However, we still do not fully understand the impact of the pandemic on human mental health. In response to this issue, as long as companies seek massive investments in new medical methods, and encourage governments to take swift action to protect public mental health.
In this context, research based on such psychiatric drugs may be popular with international capital in 2022. (1) The code is MNMD, the current price is 1.38, the main business is the development and research of psychedelic drugs to improve health, promote health, and alleviate suffering. The fair value is 1.51, with a 12-month average target of 8.
3. Metaverse concept.
Although the concept of 'metaverse' is still controversial, ever since Facebook vowed to rebrand as Meta focusing on the 'metaverse,' investors have been extremely enthusiastic about this concept. Some analysts also believe that this will be the next revolution of the internet.
However, since the metaverse is still an unrealized vague concept, it is not easy for investors to choose good individual stock targets. However, in this industry, some companies may have lower risks compared to others.
In fact, many experts believe that instead of betting on companies directly related to the metaverse, it is better to focus on architectural platforms and the necessary technology companies for the metaverse. In this field, graphics card and computer chip manufacturers are an obvious good choice.
On one hand, even without the metaverse, chip stocks are currently in an ideal position, with artificial intelligence, cloud computing, data centers, etc., which may explode in 2022. On the other hand, software stocks can also play a role in the metaverse, having graphic technology crucial for metaverse art and technological creation.
(1). The symbol is NVDA, current price is 294.11, market cap is 750.03 billion USD, main business: semiconductor manufacturer, fair value: 222.13, 12-month average target is 360.17.
(2). The symbol is U, current price is 142.99, market cap is 42.24 billion, main business is software that helps create 3D environments,
fair value is 98.22, 12-month average target is 178.86.
(3). The symbol is MTTR, current price is 20.64, market cap is 5.39 billion, main business is virtual building replication technology, fair value is 14.18, 12-month average target: 32.33.
Summary and comments: I have my own stock selection philosophy. 1. I choose those with market demand and broad prospects. 2. I don't want so-called excellent blue chip star stocks that have already risen significantly. In my perception, rising prices accumulate risks, and falling prices release risks. No matter how good a stock is, if it rises too much, it will fall - it's all a mess. 3. I don't know why, but I just don't like biomedical stocks; the audience still has quite significant limitations. 4. I believe in getting what you pay for; expensive stocks have their reasons, and cheap stocks have theirs. I don't like very cheap stocks; single-digit stocks are generally not considered, as the quality may not be good.
So I'm giving up on the psychiatric pharmaceutical sector.
Next, let's talk about the metaverse concept sector. NVDA is indeed a good stock, but there are many better-performing star stocks within this sector, and furthermore, its stock price has fallen too little. In the future, if the USA stock indexes decline, its downward potential will not be small either. Let's wait for the market to misjudge before considering. Even if there is a misjudgment, it is necessary to buy the same undervalued but more promising star stocks.
The biggest issue with U and MTTR is that they have not fallen enough. U's closing price is 142.99, still at a loss.
In conclusion, I am still sticking with QS as the trading symbol, even though it keeps falling more than rising, which is quite annoying. Take it slow. The above is purely my personal opinion. We are strangers to each other, going our separate ways, let everyone do their own thing, stay safe. Have a happy New Year's Day.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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Michael McCarthy CCO
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Ask a strategist - Trump's first day
70180128 : Long time no see
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Samur : As I expected, Qs is back below 23 yuan, repeating the history of July. As to whether it can drop to 19 yuan this time, I think it's possible, but it just won't be that fast.