Byron Wien, vice chairman, and Joe Zidle, chief investment strategist, of Blackstone Inc.'s private wealth solutions group on Monday issued their annual list of 10 surprises.
Mr. Wien, who started the list in 1986, defines a surprise as an event that the average investor would only assign a one out of three chance of taking place but he believes has a better than 50% likelihood of happening.
Byron and Joe’s Ten Surprises of 2022 are as follows:
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1. The combination of strong earnings clashes with rising interest rates, resulting in the S&P 500 making no progress in 2022. Value outperforms growth. High volatility continues and there is a correction that approaches, but does not exceed, 20%.
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2. While the prices of some commodities decline, wages and rents continue to rise and the Consumer Price Index and other widely followed measures of inflation increase by 4.5% for the year. Declines in prices of transportation and energy encourage the die-hard proponents of the view that inflation is “transitory,” but persistent inflation becomes the dominant theme.
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3. The bond market begins to respond to rising inflation and tapering by the Federal Reserve, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury rises to 2.75%. The Fed completes its tapering and raises rates four times in 2022.
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4. In spite of the Omicron variant, group meetings and convention gatherings return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of the year. While Covid remains a problem throughout both the developed and the less-developed world, normal conditions are largely restored in the US. People spend three to four a days a week in offices and return to theaters, concerts, and sports arenas en masse.
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5. Chinese policymakers respond to recent turmoil in the country’s property markets by curbing speculative investment in housing. As a result, there is more capital from Chinese households that needs to be invested. A major asset management industry begins to flourish in China, creating opportunities for Western companies.
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6. The price of gold rallies by 20% to a new record high. Despite strong growth in the US, investors seek the perceived safety and inflation hedge of gold amidst rising prices and volatility. Gold reclaims its title as a haven for newly minted billionaires, even as cryptocurrencies continue to gain market share.
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7. While the major oil-producing countries conclude that high oil prices are speeding up the implementation of alternative energy programs and allowing US shale producers to become profitable again, these countries can’t increase production enough to meet demand. The price of West Texas crude confounds forward curves and analyst forecasts when it rises above $100 per barrel.
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8. Suddenly, the nuclear alternative for power generation enters the arena. Enough safety measures have been developed to reduce fears about its dangers, and the viability of nuclear power is widely acknowledged. A major nuclear site is approved for development in the Midwest of the United States. Fusion technology emerges as a possible future source of energy.
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9. ESG evolves beyond corporate policy statements. Government agencies develop and enforce new regulatory standards that require public companies in the US to publish information documenting progress on various metrics deemed critical in the new era. Federal Reserve governors spearhead implementation of stress tests to assess financial institutions’ vulnerability to climate change scenarios.
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10. In a setback to its green energy program, the United States finds it cannot buy enough lithium batteries to power the electric vehicles planned for production. China controls the lithium market, as well as the markets for the cobalt and nickel used in making the transmission rods, and it opts to reserve most of the supply of these commodities for domestic use.
here is his list for last year:
1. China A shares lead emerging markets higher as Biden restores constructive diplomacy
2. The US returns to ‘normal’ by Memorial Day
3. Depressed hospitality and airline stocks become strong performers
4. We begin the longest positive economic cycle in history
5. Gold rallies and cryptocurrencies gain more respect during the year as the Fed embraces MMT
6. Energy stocks are among the best performers in 2021 with WTI hitting $65
7. The market corrects almost 20% in the first half, but the S&P 500 trades at 4,500 later in the year
8. Surge in economic growth causes the 10-year Treasury yield to rise to 2%
9. The US dollar slump reverses on better US growth
10. Tesla acquires a major global auto manufacturer
iamiam : I recognize these tools use trillions of dollars to make billions while being "right" 20% of the time, the only reason they're profitable is because they have too much money and assets not to be.
efficentupup OP iamiam : stay tuned