U.S. stocks would drop 15% in 2022? FOMC poised to turn more hawkish

The median forecast of Fed officials calls for three rate hikes this year, and Gartman, chairman of the University of Akron Endowment, said there could be four. So he sees stocks could fall 10% to 15% this year.

Gartman's more hawkish forecast stems partly from the addition of strong anti-inflation voters to the Fed's policymaking Federal Open Market Committee this year.

In Jan. 2022, Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester, Kansas City Fed's Esther George, St. Louis Fed's James Bullard, and the head of the Boston Fed, who has yet to be named, will join the FOMC. Bullard rates as the most hawkish member of the FOMC, according to InTouch Capital Markets. Mester and George also tend to side wit the hawks.

Stepping down as voting members are Chicago Fed's Charles Evans, San Francisco's Mary Daly, Atlanta's Raphael Bostic, and Richmond's Thomas Barkin. Evans and Daley lean toward the dove camp.

Given the outcome of the Fed's recent meeting, "the whole FOMC has shifted more hawkish," said Kathleen Bostjancic, an economist with Oxford Economics.

However, fed officials and analysts caution against making too much of who votes and who doesn't on the FOMC since all of the 12 regional Fed bank presidents participate fully in the committee's policy discussions, regardless of whether they are voters.

The FOMC's composition will also change in 2022 with the leadership turnover on the Fed board, which has one vacancy and two more looming. Governor Randal Quarles said he , and the term of Vice Chairman Richard Clarida ends in January.

The FOMC's next meeting will hold on Jan. 25-26.