This may be Steve's most important prediction in 2020.
Editor's note: As part of the New Year series, we are once again analyzing the real estate market.
1. The real estate market's long bull run is just beginning.
l Steve would undoubtedly choose real estate investment over gold.
Indeed, the US real estate market is the focus of 2021, with record-low interest rates and high demand leading to frenzy in bidding wars and soaring prices.
These may seem like speculative mania, reminiscent of the real estate bubble before the financial crisis. However, according to Dr. Steve Sjuggerud, the real estate bull market is not a bubble, but the beginning of a long-term trend that is far from over.
As Steve stated in a research report published on September 9th, he believes that real estate is an excellent investment for the present and even the next 10 years, and if he had to choose, he would give up all gold investments. Long-time readers may know that Steve is very bullish on the US real estate market.
Steve refers to this real estate bull market as his most important prediction for the 2020s. In the following text, Steve will share the three best methods to capitalize on this huge trend.
If he had to choose, Steve would choose to forever give up investing in gold and instead invest in the real estate market.
Around the year 2000, gold was also about to end a 10-year bear market.
It's too conservative to say that nobody was paying attention to gold at that time.
I remember the first time I went to see a coin exhibition, the exhibition hall was half full, and the visitors were all over 60 years old.
This was not a popular investment show, just a group of boring collectors.
But for a younger person like me, seeking opportunities that are considered unattractive is very worthwhile.
Old readers may know that 'the unattractive' is one of my three investment maxims, the other two being 'cheap' and 'in the rising trend'.
So I started sharing the opportunities in gold with my readers.
We bought a few gold coins, and later the prices soared by three digits. I have also extensively analyzed gold stocks, including Seabridge Gold (SA), which later surged by 995%.
Gold and other alternative investments were the beginning of my career, those surging stocks earned me a lot of popularity. But if I had to choose, I would be willing to give up investing in gold forever.
Because there is another better investment now. Over the past 10 years, I have personally put in a large amount of capital, and although the market has performed well during this time, the biggest gains may just be getting started.
In the following, I will share an asset and analyze why its current opportunity is worth focusing on. Finally, I will focus on three ways you can consider investing in your portfolio under this trend - two of which only require a few clicks of the mouse in your brokerage account.
It's not bitcoin or any other potential substitute for gold.
Like these assets, this asset can serve as a tool to hedge against inflation, but its significance goes far beyond that.
So in the past 10 years, I have invested almost all of my investment funds in this asset. To be honest, if you have read my content during that period, I think you should already know which asset I'm talking about.
Yes, it's real estate.
I started buying real estate in 2010, just after we had experienced the bursting of the real estate bubble.
I bought a piece of land, an apartment near the beach, several residential houses, and even a mile of beachfront on the street. I also purchased industrial land and some iconic properties in my area.
I have been investing in real estate for more than 10 years, during this time, real estate prices have soared.
But even with the price increase, we did not miss the opportunity. Again, if I had to choose an investment now, I would choose real estate over gold, but that is not enough.
The most important reason for the real estate market's bull run is a severe imbalance between supply and demand.
Strictly speaking, this falls within the scope of Economics 101.
The current market situation is no longer the crazy speculation seen in 2004, where people quit their jobs to get rich quick by flipping houses. It is now determined by supply and demand relationships.
Now, there are a large number of homebuyers entering the market, but there are not enough houses available for them to purchase. This is simply the law of supply and demand.
There are many analyses on the reasons for this phenomenon.
COVID-19 is always persuasive, the epidemic has forced people across the USA to rearrange their lives, meaning they have to make significant changes to their living locations and work styles.
In addition, the millennial cohort is becoming an indispensable group in the real estate market. According to data from the National Association of Realtors, millennials are now the main force in home buying, and the younger millennials (22 to 30 years old) are almost all first-time buyers.
Nevertheless, the 'why' is not as important as the 'what'. The biggest result is that new home sales in January 2021 reached the highest level in 15 years. As shown in the graph below:
In the past few months, although we have seen demand start to decline from its peak, we have also seen that new home sales have still grown by double digits compared to pre-pandemic 2019. Over the past 4 years, house prices have risen by almost 30%.
At the same time, the number of homes available for sale has sharply decreased during the same period.
The graph above shows the listing volume of US homes over the past 5 years, as shown, the current listing volume is far less than half of that in 2016.
This graph is simple and easy to understand, it's clear that the current real estate frenzy is not really a frenzy, just a severe imbalance between supply and demand.
This means that the current real estate bull market is more sustainable than almost everyone perceives.
2. Three ways to seize this real estate bull market.
Real estate developers cannot fill the supply gap overnight, which means that the current market frenzy is likely to continue.
Now the only remaining question is: how can you seize this opportunity?
- Consider directly purchasing physical real estate in the United States.
First, you can consider buying physical real estate in the United States, but frankly, this is not suitable for everyone. Buying personal properties is more challenging and riskier.
If you are willing to put in more effort, I believe you can now consider adding physical real estate to your investment portfolio. I firmly believe that the value of US real estate will continue to soar in the coming years, just as we have seen in the past decade.
But if you prefer a simpler strategy, you can seize this opportunity through the stock market in the following two ways.
- Focus on direct opportunities from real estate-related companies.
Invest in companies that are directly responsible for filling the housing supply gap, including home builders and other companies that hold physical properties.
These companies are likely to perform well in the coming years. High demand means that home builders will have a lot of business, and companies that already hold physical properties should also see asset price increases, which should in turn lead to higher stock prices.
This is a good choice. I am currently encouraging my readers to focus on the opportunities of these companies.
Do not overlook the indirect investment opportunities of "pickaxe and shovel" type companies.
But there is another way of trading that comes from an old saying about investing:
The people who really made money in the California Gold Rush were those who never spent a second panning for gold.
They instead opened stores selling pickaxes, shovels, mining equipment, rough jeans, boots, and more. What they sold was what the gold seekers (whether or not they actually found gold) desperately needed.
We can do similar operations in the real estate market.
Consider holding companies in the "pickaxe and shovel" industry that are booming as the real estate market continues to rise. Here, I'm referring to companies that sell products to builders, contractors, and even the DIY industry, as well as companies that assist in construction and building through services or equipment.
These companies are crucial for maintaining a bullish real estate market and finding the right business can bring astonishing profits.
For example, heavy machinery manufacturer Caterpillar (CAT) has seen its stock price rise by approximately 1500% over the past 19 years. This is more than double the total increase of the S&P 500 index during the same period.
Investing in these "pickaxe and shovel" companies can be a dark horse in the already underway real estate boom. In my opinion, investors who seize the right opportunities now may see returns multiplied several times over the next few years.
Regardless of which investment method you prefer, the key is to start seizing opportunities now.
Now is a great opportunity, with the real estate market booming. But this is not a speculative bubble, which means that the USA real estate bull market is likely to continue from now on.
By seizing the current opportunity, you are seizing one of the golden decades in the history of the real estate market. The real estate bull market is my prediction for the most important aspect of the 2020s.
Therefore, if I had to choose between investing in gold and real estate, I would be willing to give up gold forever.
I don't want you to blame yourself years later and regret not seizing the opportunity to enter at the beginning. Before it's too late, I hope you can see the current situation clearly and learn how to make your hard-earned money generate returns in the best possible way.
The time is now, don't miss this excellent opportunity.
(This article represents the author's personal views and should not be taken as investment advice. Investments carry risks, and entering the market requires caution).
Analyst: Steve Sjuggerud
Compiled by: Samantha
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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