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What they aren’t telling you

In 2015 reports were coming out from analysts that the shale industry would run out of new places to drill shale oil wells in the Permian in 2021. You see, shale drilling is drilling in poor rock quality. Prior to shale, we didn’t have to frac wells because the rock quality was great, but we drilled all that good rock up. So, it is really scraping the bottom of the barrel now and way back then, there was a recognition that it wouldn’t last forever. Oil is a limited resource. For a time, it was barely economic to drill shale wells because the margins of drilling in such poor rock was slightly better than what you could make on interest due to quantitative easing policy. That is one problem, the other is that there really aren’t many more drilling locations. All the good places have been drilled up which is why you don’t see a rush of shale companies returning to drilling even though oil prices are rising fast. This lack of investment will continue to push oil prices higher.
So much of America’s oil production now comes from shale wells. The problem with shale wells is that the oil production declines much faster than wells drilled in what we call “conventional” rock. Conventional oil production has been on the decline for a long time and shale has helped make up for production. The problem is, that now that drilling new wells slows, the rate of decline in oil production will be much steeper. Around the world, many countries that have not invested in shale (because it is sub-economic) have had their conventional resources continue to decline. Venezuela was a major oil exporter, so were Columbia and Mexico. Expect Saudi Arabia to not be far behind. They have been lying for years about just how much oil they really have left.
Some people in the industry keep thinking new technology will save us and help us develop new oil plays. They couldn’t be more wrong. The technology for frac’ing was first developed in the 60’s. I can tell you that there is no new technology being developed right now in the oil industry that will save us. Physics and geology are against us on this one, even if we could develop some technology. Wind & solar won’t save us either, it would require a larger investment of materials and energy than we have.There is no way we are getting out of this.
Oil supports the entire world economy, the supply chains, fertilizers for crops, and everything else we have become dependent on. All the crisis going have one commonality, the lack of oil is the problem.

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