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Easing in Russia-Ukraine crisis may mean 5% rally
The stock market has already priced in bad news from the Russia-Ukraine crisis, and any relief or de-escalation could lead to a 5% rally, according to Morgan Stanley.
They also noted that a return to fundamentals is coming, and that's what investors should be focused on now.
"If we were to get some signs of a de-escalation in Russia/Ukraine tensions, it seems like a quick 5% rally is not out of the question,"analysts led by Mike Wilson wrote it on this Tuesday.
Not all price action can be chalked up to the Russia-Ukraine crisis, according to the Morgan Stanley note, because of the current environment of slowing growth and Fed tightening.
Once the Fed begins tightening policy in March, analysts said it'll be important for investors to return to fundamentals — which "should be the main drivers of equity returns over the coming months."
In particular, earnings growth will matter a great deal moving forward, said Morgan Stanley, adding that sales and operating.
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Hi, guys, do you agree with Morgan Stanley's view above? And why?
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Your Average Trader : Its not like de-escelation will suddenly lift sanctions or curb public outcry/protests in the short run. Putin has decided to invade, lives have been lost, damange has been done. Biden and EU has cut all diplomatic ties with Russia meaning any diplomacy to calm the situation is out the window. Ukraine is on its own...... I don't see why Putin would decide to stop the war before he takes the capital and gets what he want? i.e a new goverment/puppet. That process may take a while. So personally not a geo political expert here but IMO permanent damages have been done, any rally in the short term due to easing criss is unlikely.
Molly wealth talk OP Your Average Trader : Like you, I am not an expert on geopolitics, so we should be cautious about the Wall Street's opinions.
But I agree that it is necessary for investors to pay attention to the Fed policies and U.S. economic fundamentals- which should be the main drivers of equity returns.
70583235 : That could be, but I’m also very worried about China trying to jump in while were weak and take over Taiwan?
Jeff Boyd : Don't have any idea what is going to happen with Ukraine but there are a fair number of Chinese people on these boards and I would welcome any thoughts on what PRC will do. My perception is that there is a lot of "unreasonable hate" in both US and PRC right now for each other that I cannot begin to understand but I will say that if PRC helps Russia avoid sanctions that the US will retaliate in some fashion and I fear it might spiral out of control.