We can safely come to conclusion instead of a 3A, 3B, 3C and...
We can safely come to conclusion instead of a 3A, 3B, 3C and 3D move so far on 3/5, it was a larger move down and was a ABC pattern to complete 3A and now we are on a ABC pattern up to complete 3B. Retracement levels for 3B will be at 14148 and 14414. Likelihood of resistance will be near 14414 as it is near the wedge trendline we broke out from on 18th Feb.
Currently we retested the downtrend channel trendline and is rejected off it, but resistance is weak and we will break through it with ease to test the wedge breakout TL soon.
If we do break past the 50% and 61.8% Fib retracement at 14148 and 14414, the bias will be towards a double zigzag correction which has bottomed out on 24th Feb as following a double zigzag, the measured move down was also the same at 13100 - 13200. We hit 13025 on lows on 24th feb on the
$E-mini NASDAQ 100 Futures(DEC4) (NQmain.US)$ .
$E-mini NASDAQ 100 Futures(DEC4) (NQmain.US)$ .
For now, distribution was huge on the large caps especially on imbalance of sell orders on close and this is showing smart money is still distributing. But weekly/daily chart is showing oversold and that is why are retracing on a 3B move up to cool it down before the next bigger move down which will be 3C.
This will likely mean that we will extend the 3/5 till 11th March and the correction ending mid March is highly not possible. We will probably see it end near late March closer to early April.
Do go back and watch my video if you have not so you do not ask questions already answered in it to prevent the thread from getting overspammed as sometimes it can get up to 400 comments and 9 pages long. However that doesnt mean you should shun away from asking questions if you really need help as seeking knowledge is the key to success.
I have posted my charts here and you can tell from the 2H chart we have a bearish divergence on the MACD.
On the 30mins chart we are also going to be forming a bearish divergence soon if the momentum doesnt increase by a huge amount. All leading to weakness in rally and it is a bull trap.
Thus my bias is currently still towards 5 waves down instead of a double zigzag.
On the 30mins chart we are also going to be forming a bearish divergence soon if the momentum doesnt increase by a huge amount. All leading to weakness in rally and it is a bull trap.
Thus my bias is currently still towards 5 waves down instead of a double zigzag.
We have also crossed below the 55EMA ( Green Line) on the 2H chart which shows weakness in this rally and like I mentioned, if we are having a strong rally here, the 55EMA should not be tested. If it should be tested, it will not touch or cross it, much less close below it.
Another bearish note, the $E-mini S&P 500 Futures(DEC4) (ESmain.US)$ and $E-mini Dow Futures(DEC4) (YMmain.US)$ has not yet crossed their 55EMA on 2H chart. There is a breadth now between the nasdaq and spx. Typically the ES leads in the market, so if the SPX has issues going back up, the NDX will probaby come down soon with SPX leading the fall.
I am leaning on friday to be bullish and maybe even monday. But once we reach that 61.8% fib or wedge trendline, we should see the structure seriously weakening to start the next move down which is 3C.
This move will imply to the general market although I'm using the NQ (Nasdaq 100 futures) as a reference.
As always, trade safe & invest wise!
Video linked here in case you need to watch it.
$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ $ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF (SQQQ.US)$ $ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF (SQQQ.US)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ $SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average Trust (DIA.US)$ $Meta Platforms (FB.US)$ $Apple (AAPL.US)$ $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ $Palantir (PLTR.US)$
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Investing 101 OP : Do note PCE data came in hot at 9.30pm. Its expected the market will fall first on open only to reverse near 11pm to 11.30pm. Bias for today is bullish due to momentum from yesterday. Bearish divergence can take some time to play out so don't bet on it reversing today unless we do see a break back of structure.
Remember the hammer candle we see yesterday was of low volume with large candle body. This is typically not the case for a reversal candle. Look at 24th Jan where the candle is a small body with even larger volume than 24th Feb.
102235596 : Thanks sir. You’ve said that 3B is in play even though NDX went below 14031. So I’m guessing we should load up on the dips today for calls/longs for the pump today? Since it is bullish.
Investing 101 OP 102235596 : Intraday yes. Bullish. Trend is still bearish. So I won't get calls.
我的明天会更好的 : 700buy
102235596 Investing 101 OP : My reason for getting calls is to day trade. Intend to close out by today!
Investing 101 OP 102235596 : then you can go for it.
102235596 Investing 101 OP : Thanks. I am waiting first for the market dump like you’ve said before entering.
102235596 : It looks like we’re setting higher lows already for Qqq and spy - thoughts?
Investing 101 OP 102235596 : they already hit the 50% of the day's range. That was the retrace down for the buy
贝贝的贝贝 : master, what if qqq doesn’t touch 14013, I mean the future does touch it but qqq doesn’t.
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