The early the better
I feel FOMC should still go ahead with 50bps rate increase despite the geopolitical situation. My reasoning for that is
1. FOMC has prepared the market well in advanced for a 50bps increase and hence market is already adjusted to bake-in the expectation. So if the requisite hike of 50bps is actually done, market will not be surprised. And we should not have an unexpected sharp correction.
2. Front loading the pain: Upfront 50bps increase is better now than to start with 25bps and increase it to 50bps in the next review cycle when we are at lower liquidity than today.
1. FOMC has prepared the market well in advanced for a 50bps increase and hence market is already adjusted to bake-in the expectation. So if the requisite hike of 50bps is actually done, market will not be surprised. And we should not have an unexpected sharp correction.
2. Front loading the pain: Upfront 50bps increase is better now than to start with 25bps and increase it to 50bps in the next review cycle when we are at lower liquidity than today.
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