THE WEEK AHEAD Ending March 25
I was going to do a regular post but it went so long I figured I'd take it all the way. Since I'm on a high from watching my team advance
and getting ready to watch my other team advance GO DOGS! GO CATS! ![]()
here we go.
Last week I posted
Last week I posted
was right about commodities, very wrong about the indices.![]()
... Let's review what I believe happened last week before we move on.
Last week the indices were performing near as predicted until Thursday then Fridays rise. I believe shorts were covering, while taking profits off of commodities (not a rotation as would be a true reversal but profits taking, longs take profits on commodities-prices go down. Shorts take profit off indices-prices go up) I believe they (hedge funds, MMs, fund managers etc.) are just resetting their positions and the next few days may chop as they reenter those positions.
Last week the indices were performing near as predicted until Thursday then Fridays rise. I believe shorts were covering, while taking profits off of commodities (not a rotation as would be a true reversal but profits taking, longs take profits on commodities-prices go down. Shorts take profit off indices-prices go up) I believe they (hedge funds, MMs, fund managers etc.) are just resetting their positions and the next few days may chop as they reenter those positions.
Now the week ahead. While waiting I figured I would make some simple charts to share, showing what I posted about yesterday and why I am still BEARISH. $ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF (SQQQ.US)$ $ProShares UltraShort QQQ (QID.US)$ $Tradr 2X Short Innovation Daily ETF (SARK.US)$(this is a leveraged inverse $ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK.US)$). I pick on QQQ and ARKK because they are tech heavy, high rates effect tech most, they need money now for future returns.
Here is $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ on a 4hr time frame. You can see where it "broke out" from the purple trendline, but look how high RSI is and elevated the MACD is and rising while the volume is low and falling. (that could be a warning that things are turning). Whether its bullish or bearish I expect it to retrace back to one of the purple trend lines. (following the orange line I drew)
Here is $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ on a 4hr time frame. You can see where it "broke out" from the purple trendline, but look how high RSI is and elevated the MACD is and rising while the volume is low and falling. (that could be a warning that things are turning). Whether its bullish or bearish I expect it to retrace back to one of the purple trend lines. (following the orange line I drew)
That was the easy part. Here is where it gets tricky. Below is the 4 hr time frame zoomed in. The predicted move back to the trendline (purple dotted line) is shown in my highlighted bars. The top trendline target is 331 the bottom is 319. Those are the points (yellow dots) to watch for a rebound (any rebound must pass the high point 352.5 ish to be a true bullish move). Again look how elevated RSI and MACD are while volume is dropping.
Now the $CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (.VIX.US)$ Look at how low the vix is while all the indicators are bottomed out. This wants to go up. It's going to test at about 25.5 (blue MA) then again about 31-
and then 40+???
Here is the Nasdaq $E-mini NASDAQ 100 Futures(SEP4) (NQmain.US)$ on a daily time frame
Look at the first bump (in white) notice how RSI and MACD had bottomed out, now look at the volume and see what all that did to the price. Look what last week did (orange) and tell me that doesn't look different. and where is RSI going to go? not much higher before it tops out. The MACD has room to run, but I see this as a breather for more downside rather than a breakout attempt.
On the chart at the right I colored some falling resistance zones (white, orange, purple, violet)
Look at the first bump (in white) notice how RSI and MACD had bottomed out, now look at the volume and see what all that did to the price. Look what last week did (orange) and tell me that doesn't look different. and where is RSI going to go? not much higher before it tops out. The MACD has room to run, but I see this as a breather for more downside rather than a breakout attempt.
On the chart at the right I colored some falling resistance zones (white, orange, purple, violet)
Same chart zoomed in highlighted is 12540 that's a possible price target zone (it could go lower). Also highlighted are the RSI showing it doesn't have a lot of room to go up, and also the falling volume
Last week saw a pullback on the commodities, I will cover 2 quickly $iShares Silver Trust (SLV.US)$ ![]()
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. In case you dont read emoji the chart is Awesome!!! Below is a weekly chart, we came back to test the trendline, maybe a little room to go lower. at 22.70 I am buying until the bottom.
Other silver miners I own $Coeur Mining (CDE.US)$ $Hecla Mining (HL.US)$ $Endeavour Silver (EXK.US)$ $Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV.US)$
Other silver miners I own $Coeur Mining (CDE.US)$ $Hecla Mining (HL.US)$ $Endeavour Silver (EXK.US)$ $Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV.US)$
$SPDR Gold ETF (GLD.US)$ ![]()
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Weekly chart OMG!!! Do you see this, this is a buy the dip chart!!!
Other gold miners I own $Sandstorm Gold (SAND.US)$ $New Gold (NGD.US)$ $Yamana Gold (AUY.US)$ $Iamgold (IAG.US)$ $Kinross Gold (KGC.US)$ $AngloGold Ashanti (AU.US)$ $Barrick Gold (GOLD.US)$
Other gold miners I own $Sandstorm Gold (SAND.US)$ $New Gold (NGD.US)$ $Yamana Gold (AUY.US)$ $Iamgold (IAG.US)$ $Kinross Gold (KGC.US)$ $AngloGold Ashanti (AU.US)$ $Barrick Gold (GOLD.US)$
LOAD UP!!!
As always be careful, and good luck!
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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karnithya : @iamiam thanks for this detailed analysis. My sqqq is bleeding red and my cost price is 43.5. Should I buy more to average the cost? I know its not financial advice but i dont want to catch a falling knife also
iamiam OP karnithya : I would wait and be patient because this could still be a breakout (I doubt it but it could be). the true trend should show itself (at one of the trendline points) this week then you can cut losses or load up... I hope that helps
iamiam OP karnithya : it may not hurt to add a small percentage if it's in the range it's at now under 40 and then wait. I am adding under 40 in smaller increments as the day goes while I wait for direction confirmations. Also I am adding smaller batches because I want to hold money to buy SLV under 22.7
Day Trader 881 : Nice one:) thank you for sharing
sayno : Appreciate your sharing n providing advice on how n what to do in such a crucial situation.Thank you
Fat Veg 7890 : The MM is really playing both bulls and bears on this.
iamiam OP Fat Veg 7890 : the chop has only started, market isn't open yet
102235596 iamiam OP : Hey @iamiamthanks so much for this. do you mind sharing the same levels for spy as you did for QQQ? Unfortunately I swung ours that expire this week - while there’s a chance that we go down next week, it does seem like there’ll be a bull run this week and I wanna get a better sense of when I should cut my losses.
Fat Veg 7890 iamiam OP : Sir, what do you mean by chop?
iamiam OP Fat Veg 7890 : up - down - up - down just like someone chopping...
The swings come from institutions moving money... Last friday was a "witching" day, meaning that futures and options that had been active a year or longer expired so institutions have to reset those positions. They are moving into their next positions and this can cause big swings
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