股神 Investment 101: Market Outlook Moving Forward
Hi guys, this is an update from your friendly neighbourhood 股神. Have been really busy lately with my personal life and managing multiple investment portfolios in 5 differing asset classes. Today, I want to talk about 3 issues which will affect our portfolios moving forward.
1. The covid situation has been stabilising around the world - the number of infections and deaths are going down. Countries are reopening their borders and economies are recovering. The only exception is China, whose 'zero covid' policy is currently being tested, and time will tell on whether they can successfully contain and minimise the impacts of covid. It does not look good at the moment, with lockdowns being imposed across multiple states and cities, disrupting supply chains and negatively impacting China's economy.
2. The Russia-Ukraine war is now into the 4th week. Massive sanctions have been imposed on Russia, causing their currency to drop immensely - their paper money is seriously in the process of turning into paper. Oil and commodities prices soared as Russia and Ukraine are both among the top producers globally, and supply chains get disrupted due to the war. Many are now expecting the war to end by mid April due to logistical issues faced by the Russians. However, even if the war ends by then, the impacts of the war will still be felt in the months to come.
3. The United States Federal Reserve has begun raising interest rates and will soon begin tapering their balance sheet to combat the surging inflation, which has risen to 7.9% as of February. The unemployment rate is low, the economy is strong and more interest rate hikes are expected. In fact, the expectation is that the interest rates will be raised to around 2% by the end of the year. Stocks have been re-priced and may remain compressed at low p/e and p/s ratios in the near term.
Having considered the issues mentioned, a bull run is expected in the near term, all the way till the end of the year. However, the bull run is expected to be a compressed one. I am still holding onto $ChargePoint (CHPT.US)$, $SoFi Technologies (SOFI.US)$, $Skillz (SKLZ.US)$, $Opendoor Technologies (OPEN.US)$, $Palantir (PLTR.US)$ and $Hut 8 (HUT.US)$. Added multiple positions in other asset classes and generating cashflow to add on to my positions consistently.
I am still on the sideline observing Chinese stocks like $Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU.US)$ and $UP Fintech (TIGR.US)$, which have recently surged with the positive tide of the Chinese market. There are still much concerns with the regulatory crackdown, which has not ended. Also, delisting fears are still very real with the recent developments. However, the Chinese market seems to have bottomed but nobody knows with certainty. Only time will tell.
All in all, do not leverage in turbulent times. Build and maintain holding power. Invest with a long term horizon. Do not sell. Hold it through and you will see the light at the end of the tunnel. Cheers!!
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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Lead Engineer, Technopreneur, Investor.
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Asialie : Keep calm for better results.
WinningTrader : I have sold off my Chargepoint before it plunged 30%. Looking to re-enter.
百年难得一见的股神 OP WinningTrader : I have began tapering out, and re-entering via options to keep some profits by lowering my costs. At the same time, I can still gain if there's a sudden spike up in the stocks as I am holding onto a portion of the original shares.
百年难得一见的股神 OP : Anything below $25 is a no-brainer for CHPT in my opinion. This is a very long term hold. They are doing everything right. I have friends working there as well.
WinningTrader : It was tough holding this many months ago when price dropped 30% despite i bought at a low.
WinningTrader 百年难得一见的股神 OP : if Chargepoint is for long or very long term, will we be missing out opportunity cost? Unless we are expecting exponential rally.
百年难得一见的股神 OP WinningTrader : Very very good question. There is opportunity cost in everything. You can never completely predict the future and optimise totally. I don't foresee an exponential rally but I predict a recovery. I know my money is good in chpt and will grow overtime. I am looking at doubling next year in chpt.
KoalaBB : well said. don't look at it when it's red
JohnQuan70752214 : A back door deep and sea!