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I am still BEARISH, $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ here is why...
I am still BEARISH, $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ here is why. Today had to go up, the put to call ratio was overly tilted towards puts.
Below is the days option stats for QQQ, (someone asked if I could show this) the red underlined are considered bearish the green are bullish. There are technical reasons but I'll explain it like this- those low delta (0-40) will generally expire worthless, so think of them as pushing the price away (everytime someone buys a OTM option it has a negative effect on the stock and when you buy ITM it has positive effect, luckily retail doesn't move enough options-except GME AMC TSLA and I don't recomend playing with those, that's a bunch of sharks in a kids pool)
Todays QQQ options leaned towards puts again with 1.637 p/c ratio, that is still considered bearish, but it has fallen from a high on march 17 and market wide the calls outpaced the puts
Below is the days option stats for QQQ, (someone asked if I could show this) the red underlined are considered bearish the green are bullish. There are technical reasons but I'll explain it like this- those low delta (0-40) will generally expire worthless, so think of them as pushing the price away (everytime someone buys a OTM option it has a negative effect on the stock and when you buy ITM it has positive effect, luckily retail doesn't move enough options-except GME AMC TSLA and I don't recomend playing with those, that's a bunch of sharks in a kids pool)
Todays QQQ options leaned towards puts again with 1.637 p/c ratio, that is still considered bearish, but it has fallen from a high on march 17 and market wide the calls outpaced the puts
Asked if I have seen this before, there was the last reset not caused by covid
notice the double top (yellow) before the main downturn and the first bump (purple) the "W" (white top and bottom) with the elevated RSI
notice the double top (yellow) before the main downturn and the first bump (purple) the "W" (white top and bottom) with the elevated RSI
Current chart
Here is the daily charts and why I will give a bull case and why I dont believe it. The vertical white line is marking the "buy" signal. The MACD crossed over but has yet to breakout (blue line) the RSI wasn't oversold (not the most important but significant) also the price volume was falling yet the price rising? for a true reversal the volume should be green and be as high or preferably higher than the highlighted green bar.
QQQ is on a resistance and has broken all previous resistance with ease (on low volume) with high volume this could turn bullish. On another bearish note $SPDR Gold ETF (GLD.US)$ looks to breakout again, and $VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH.US)$ is on support, so im watching to see if this breaks out, both can be bearish signs for the market. Hope this helps. Good Luck
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Moomoobo : Thanks for the great sharing .. much appreciated. Still holding for the bearish down trend with SQQQ. Hope it will come soon
Moomoobo : When the next leg down comes, how do we tell it has bottomed? Any indication we should look out for ?
iamiam OP Moomoobo : the same I highlighted here all lined up, oversold RSI, high green volume, MACD or whatever indicators you use turning up and starting to or have crossed.
Rina888 : @iamiamThank you for sharing the chart, that’s really helpful. Based on the chart, do you see QQQ moving further up today ?
iamiam OP Rina888 : it can, I would expect a pullback first, going up from here gets close to a reversal, so watch carefully
Fat Veg 7890 iamiam OP : Sir, how do you know a pullback will take place? And how much would be the pullback? Is there any formula to estimate?
You mentioned "reversal", are you suggesting that Nasdaq will dip?
Sorry, am trying to understand the mechanics of when does the Index decides to pullback.
Thanks
iamiam OP Fat Veg 7890 : there is nothing that will tell you when it decides to drop, volume will pick up but it will be red not green. The drop could happen anytime or MMs can drag it out. Time is the hardest to figure I have it dropping today or tomorrow but it could drag out just to burn puts. when it retracts it should drop from resistance to support so the first one for QQQ would be around 350
Fat Veg 7890 iamiam OP : Can clarify the reversal you mentioned refers to? Thanks
Hani Ayyash : Thanks for this!
iamiam OP Fat Veg 7890 : oh ok, it was sitting on a support/resistance line (resistance until it passes then it becomes support and pullbacks generally drop from a resistance line to a support line) so since it was sitting on a line if a lot of buy volume came in it could push it up suddenly to the next support and that would probably be bullish.
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