STILL BEARISH It's close, sitting on the edge of a knife. $I...
STILL BEARISH
It's close, sitting on the edge of a knife.
$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US$ $ProShares UltraShort QQQ(QID.US$ $ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF(SQQQ.US$
I think a lot of this week today specifically was a shark vs whale fight (giant funds taking advantage of an under hedged market creating a gamma squeeze) when I posted the video yesterday trader Josh Brown said that this was "algos fighting algos" and that is what I believe he meant. The majority of the options that drove this run expired (high option volume low stock volume also tells me this was a gamma squeeze. "what is a gamma squeeze" *
https://smartasset.com/investing/gamma-squeeze
OK so that's what I believe happened and am still bearish after the gamma squeeze ran us to the top and a reversal point. But I am also watching closely to make sure this isn't a bullish reversal
Chart looks bullish right? let's look closer.
First look at RSI - *overbought* nearly the entire run, now rsi can stay elevated it's not a deal breaker but it needs to eventually cool off. something to note.
next look at the volume and price and how they correlate (white, orange, green, white) the horizontal line is the volume peak- that leads to a top and then a retracement/selloff/cool down before another run to the upside. Todays does not look like the others, it climbed after volume topped, hmmm? (another sign to me this was a gamma squeeze and not a rush of buyers)
It's close, sitting on the edge of a knife.
$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US$ $ProShares UltraShort QQQ(QID.US$ $ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF(SQQQ.US$
I think a lot of this week today specifically was a shark vs whale fight (giant funds taking advantage of an under hedged market creating a gamma squeeze) when I posted the video yesterday trader Josh Brown said that this was "algos fighting algos" and that is what I believe he meant. The majority of the options that drove this run expired (high option volume low stock volume also tells me this was a gamma squeeze. "what is a gamma squeeze" *
https://smartasset.com/investing/gamma-squeeze
OK so that's what I believe happened and am still bearish after the gamma squeeze ran us to the top and a reversal point. But I am also watching closely to make sure this isn't a bullish reversal
Chart looks bullish right? let's look closer.
First look at RSI - *overbought* nearly the entire run, now rsi can stay elevated it's not a deal breaker but it needs to eventually cool off. something to note.
next look at the volume and price and how they correlate (white, orange, green, white) the horizontal line is the volume peak- that leads to a top and then a retracement/selloff/cool down before another run to the upside. Todays does not look like the others, it climbed after volume topped, hmmm? (another sign to me this was a gamma squeeze and not a rush of buyers)
VIX chart bullish? This one is personally killing me (emotionally not financially although I am clearly down) as I thought I had the bottom 2 days ago (when the green candle appeared on the purple trendline that was my buy signal)
The purple lines are a trendline and a support/resistance (horizontal) these triangle "points" will often lead to turning points (breakout or breakdown). With the RSI oversold (look at the volume decrease - we are running out of sellers, and buyers replace sellers *most times) $CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index(.VIX.US$ $ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF(UVXY.US$
The purple lines are a trendline and a support/resistance (horizontal) these triangle "points" will often lead to turning points (breakout or breakdown). With the RSI oversold (look at the volume decrease - we are running out of sellers, and buyers replace sellers *most times) $CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index(.VIX.US$ $ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF(UVXY.US$
here is a similar chart just a few months back, where it crossed under the trendline then rebounded with a 2 dollar move... Related note On CNBC, trader Pete Najarian mentions for about the 3rd day that block calls options are being placed on VIX for june 70c.
My other bear "indicators" involve bull cases in Gold and Oil. $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD.US$ $VanEck Oil Services ETF(OIH.US$
The bull cases for NQ are many, they can be seen in the price increase. There were various golden crosses (on multiple time frames) these are seen as bullish trend signals. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/goldencross.asp#:~:text=A%20golden%20cross%20is%20a%20technical%20chart%20pattern%20indicating%20the,indicating%20a%20bearish%20price%20movement.
I will monitor futures closely keeping and eye on gold and oil. Good Luck
The bull cases for NQ are many, they can be seen in the price increase. There were various golden crosses (on multiple time frames) these are seen as bullish trend signals. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/goldencross.asp#:~:text=A%20golden%20cross%20is%20a%20technical%20chart%20pattern%20indicating%20the,indicating%20a%20bearish%20price%20movement.
I will monitor futures closely keeping and eye on gold and oil. Good Luck
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BlueCollarLowLife : here are my thoughts, being a practical person, this is what I see . Inflation will suck spending money out of the economy. People will go back to pandemic like, stay at home entertainment. Streaming, cooking, Pelaton, Planet fitness( cheap gym prices). Also new purchases will be on hold. No graphics cards, croc shoes, EV,Virtual reality goggles etc. We will be in a recession and down the markets go.
orchid88 : may I ask what do these block call options mean?
iamiam OP BlueCollarLowLife : I definitely see something like that, however I see it combined with outrageous prices on everything causing commodities stocks energy and certain others to continue to skyrocket
101633546 : Oil has been consolidate at 110 to 114 for past few days. The 2 year and 10 year yield is narrower. 5 and 10 year yield ady inverted. I notice when the oil price fall yield will start jumping up. if yield drop oil price will increase. Any relationship between oil and yield? or only just coincidence.
101633546 : Hi is the rsi u mean overbought and not oversold?
Fat Veg 7890 : Sir, based on your chart, you still hold bearish?
iamiam OP 101633546 : yeah sorry, I did mean overbought, thank you
Fat Veg 7890 iamiam OP : Sir, any charting tonight? Still bearish?
iamiam OP Fat Veg 7890 : still bearish
Fat Veg 7890 iamiam OP : Snp and DJI still green while Nasdaq is borderline red/green.
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