UPDATE II for or April 21
Another day down, another day of buying in the books. Let's see how we did and what we can expect moving ahead.
OIL $Crude Oil Futures(AUG4)(CLmain.US$ $VanEck Oil Services ETF(OIH.US$ $Schlumberger(SLB.US$ $Halliburton(HAL.US$ OIH took a breather today, but did move around 10 dollars round trip (high vs low of day). OIH is about 30% SLB and HAL. OIH just touched the lower channel, it formed a nice hammer but I expect it to challenge it again before another breakout.
Schlumberger reports on friday premarket.
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I think we get another day of indecision (swings up and down) before we breakout on friday. Just like HAL dont buy past earnings unless your on a long hold because after it runs up it's going to sell down. Wait for an entry or play the breakout. The yellow arrows highlight the bollinger bands and when they "squeeze". This is lining up with a triangle (long consolidation) and DMA and MACD are both pointing bullish with room on the RSI to push higher before being oversold.
Haliburton (or HAL and the name of my emoji![]()
) had earnings on Tuesday and had a sell off following the little run up. (I sold, and if you dont know I use moo to track my other ports not invest/trade that's why the quantity is 1 and the prices are different than my other ports).
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Good news, the earnings bump and sell down resulted in a nice triangle and allowed the indicators to cool down. With most oil, I expect a breakout of sorts by friday. (maybe 43+-?). I'm looking at another entry here, probably should've bought today but there is always tomorrow. ![]()
Oil futures on the 4 hour, indicators are bearish with a bullish divergence on the MACD. Shown is a forming inverse head and shoulders, should it break the formation and continue the downtrend I expect oil to reach around 99 before a strong rebound. If oil holds support at current levels then traces back up to the "neckline" (white line) that would be a turning point for a breakout if it passes and if it fails then a breakdown back to around 99. I am expecting a breakout by friday, but how is it going to get there?
$SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF(XOP.US$ Oil & Nat Gas, triangle formed, will it break up or down? If it breaks down (past examples in orange) this would be a definite buy signal. If it continues to push up expect it to push the upper bollinger band while remaining overbought. (not a great entry point although it can push up a long ways before selling off)
$Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLE.US$
Energy- Nat Gas, Coal, Electricity, Etc.
Another triangle forming.(Triangles are forming because the commodities have sold off from recent run ups and now are consolidating for another run, this behaviour pattern or "wave" creates the triangle formation, which is why you watch for triangle formations). This is a little more obvious for a positive breakout, although it doesn't look to be too strong. I expect it to break up and test the mid trendline.
Energy- Nat Gas, Coal, Electricity, Etc.
Another triangle forming.(Triangles are forming because the commodities have sold off from recent run ups and now are consolidating for another run, this behaviour pattern or "wave" creates the triangle formation, which is why you watch for triangle formations). This is a little more obvious for a positive breakout, although it doesn't look to be too strong. I expect it to break up and test the mid trendline.
$SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF(XME.US$ Steel companies and Miners! That's a Win/Win!
Coming off a breakout (from the miners) and getting ready for another breakout (this time from steel). Notice how we are resting on the upper trendline. I would like another day to buy but started today, just in case it breaks out early. The steel companies that reported today were sold down after mini spikes, this was to be expected the important thing is that they beat on earnings per share and reported massive earnings numbers, which they did. These will also breakout, it just wasnt the right timing yet, but it's coming (my guess is still Friday) $Alcoa(AA.US$ $Steel Dynamics(STLD.US$
Coming off a breakout (from the miners) and getting ready for another breakout (this time from steel). Notice how we are resting on the upper trendline. I would like another day to buy but started today, just in case it breaks out early. The steel companies that reported today were sold down after mini spikes, this was to be expected the important thing is that they beat on earnings per share and reported massive earnings numbers, which they did. These will also breakout, it just wasnt the right timing yet, but it's coming (my guess is still Friday) $Alcoa(AA.US$ $Steel Dynamics(STLD.US$
What did I buy? From HAL to SLB & CLF was my plan (and now back to HAL)
Order. (the first one was stealing ![]()
the second I got for a dollar over the low of the day![]()
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$Cleveland-Cliffs(CLF.US$ Been watching all week and today after the opening spike, was the right time. Indicators are still bearish, with a ![]()
on the MACD. (indicators lag price) that's why I'm early. But better early than late (not really, I'm just sure of what I'm doing ![]()
) *as a side note CLF traded 27k calls and 15k puts today total, last year it would've traded that on one strike. this lessens the chance of a big spike.
$Intrepid Potash(IPI.US$ We hit 120 and bam run to 122 and sell down to 115 the next day. Today dropped to 107 (![]()
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Everone panic!) and I bought! yeah I bought at 107, why? look where we closed! and we reached 118! (one could make a fortune day trading this that's a 10$ move, just under 10%!). This behaviour is doing what?- yes creating triangles (sellers taking profits by selling and being replaced by buyers who want those profits and better, and that is what drives the price back up) but triangles can break both ways. Another general rule of stocks, the Moving Averages never get too far apart for too long, and that separation needs to close the gap. Will we push to the upper trendline first ![]()
or will we sell and drop back to the midline![]()
My hunch says a big drop to the midline ![]()
maybe tomorrow ![]()
$The Mosaic(MOS.US$ More Fertilizer! now I saw a report from a trader who thinks this completed wave 3 and will pullback to the 50s. Hogwash I say! While this has run overbought and completed the current uptrend (and this may pull back to 50s but I doubt it), I predict more of a pullback to the 60s maybe even lower 60s going into earnings on the 2nd, where we run again! The pull back allows the MAs to catch up (price never goes too far from the 9/12 MA or the 9/12 from the 20/50. * I'm not sure of your MA setups but price never goes too far from the short/fast MA and the short/fast never goes too far from the long/slow MA for very long)
$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US$ $ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF(SQQQ.US$ $ProShares UltraShort QQQ(QID.US$ QQQ is still working on the inverse head and shoulders, price must pass the neckline (where a gap up is waiting), this wants to go up to cool down indicators, problem is-
$CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index(.VIX.US$ This wants to go up! The trend pulling it down is so weak, yet it keeps creeping down![]()
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It can pull down to upper 19s maybe (that's 21.19 on futures which is what I track, but my options are in VIX and I am long). This is a VIX that needs to be in the 40s there is no reason for fear and volatility to be this low is there?![]()
When the MMs let this go (low VIX is good for institutions to sell calls and spreads) this is going to snap up like a rubber band pulled back and released.
$iShares Silver Trust(SLV.US$ Hi Ho Silver Away!!! Seriously if the price drops- I buy, it's that easy... SLV shot up then instantly came back to the trendline where it met a green candle on support again, here we go! When I see this it makes my heart happy![]()
You can't keep Silver/gold down!!! I can hardly get any in real life and I'm definitely not getting any for $23.30 that's for sure! Silver dollars (.77 oz) are $35, 1oz Eagles are $40.
$SPDR Gold ETF(GLD.US$ What I said about silver ditto gold. $245 1/10oz 1 was available, $2050 oz no orders larger than 3 oz available. I am in mine country availability has never been a problem. yes you can buy online but then you pay a premium on a premium. *And YES this is good for miners!!!
ok here we go way too early futures. The 4 hour on NQ, The 4 hr shows bullish indicators, except for the bearish divergence on the MACD.
This doesnt show but you have to take my word the DMI shows that the bullish trend is weak and losing momentum. This is building a triangle that looks to set up going right into open.![]()
typical right, just like today where it looked bullish going into open, but it was weak and quickly gave up momentum.
This doesnt show but you have to take my word the DMI shows that the bullish trend is weak and losing momentum. This is building a triangle that looks to set up going right into open.
The 2 hr, more bearish and bullish indicators, showing the room up and down. If NQ climbs up going into open I expect another selloff, if it sells down going into open expect an oversold bounce, and maybe more but would have to wait to see the strength. As of now I have seen nothing that tells me the market has enough momentum to break the neckline let alone new highs.
This is a bear market
As always Good Luck![]()
oh and![]()
OIL - GOLD - SILVER!!! ![]()
oh and
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交易机器不需要魔法 : Thank for your hardwork! Your analysis is so interesting and useful to me
$Alcoa(AA.US)$ ER slipped... I am scare about $Cleveland-Cliffs(CLF.US)$ one
For SLV July call, I follow u, hv added 5 more at 1.36
Imso : sir would fed chair speech for an even aggressive hike in interest rate cause gold silver and commodity to drop? like recent gold silver drop be in anticipation for that...
交易机器不需要魔法 : I wish to share my view on $The Mosaic (MOS.US)$
I guess it will be rejected by 76.2 resistant and go to 71-73
iamiamOP Imso: Hard question because it does 2 things. it strengthens the dollar (if yields attract enough foreign investors) but it also does the opposite, gold and silver should increase as the fed increases, because the overall weakening of the US dollar in world standing (and all currencies actually). The dollar is showing strength which pushes the price of precious metals down, however all 3 ran up on monday (even pro traders were thrown off, I guess charts do override what "should happen" or what "makes sense"). Billionaires, Countries, and huge funds were buying all 3 - dollars, gold and silver (this is also hedging the dollar, dollar drops suddenly metals go up more). Long story short; right now money doesnt know what will offer the SAFEST returns, and is moving quickly. There are certain large funds still just buying huge blocks of gold/silver for delivery. ***when money is doing this someone(s) are going broke (theres always a trader on the other side) there is a massive liquidation coming from somewhere, but who and when is anyone's guess.
iamiamOP 交易机器不需要魔法: I like that, I have it at 68 ish. I'm looking for an earnings bounce I may play, will have to see how it forms up. My steel and oil should both pop by then allowing a move to fertilizer! it's almost too perfect
iamiamOP 交易机器不需要魔法: Alcoa Corp (NYSE:AA) reported first-quarter revenue growth of 14.7% year-over-year to $3.29 billion, missing the consensus of $3.44 billion.
***(limiting the supply)***
with that benefit partly offset by ~$115 million of higher energy and raw materials costs.
but 
if you have miners
***(again decreasing supply while demand is still high)
***this was the only "miss" and it's the forecasted (made up number by an analyst who has interest in moving the stock price)***
EVERYTHING ELSE BELOW IS
Adjusted EPS improved to $3.06, beating the consensus of $2.97.
Adjusted EBITDA doubled to $1.07 billion (+105.8% Y/Y), and the margin expanded by 1,440 bps to 32.5%.
Aluminum segment, revenue increased 3% sequentially due to strong market pricing. The average realized price for primary aluminum increased 14% sequentially to $3,861 per metric ton.
Primary aluminum production decreased 10% sequentially on the curtailment of the San Ciprián smelter and fewer days in the quarter.
AA's cash generated from operating activities for the quarter was $34 million, compared to $6 million a year ago. Free Cash outflow was $(40) million.
The company repurchased $75 million in shares of common stock and paid $18 million in cash dividends. It has a cash balance of $1.6 billion at the end of the quarter.
2Q22 Outlook: Alcoa expects both alumina and aluminum realized third-party prices to be higher than the first quarter,
It expects second-quarter tax expense to be ~$220 million to $230 million.
FY22 Outlook: Alcoa decreased its projection for bauxite shipments by 2 million dry metric tons to 46.0 and 47.0 million dry metric tons.
It expects total alumina and aluminum shipments to remain unchanged between 14.2 and 14.4 million metric tons and between 2.5 and 2.6 million metric tons.
Price Action: AA shares are trading lower by 4.57% at $82.95 during the post-market session
iamiamOP : futures update on NQ.
^on the hourly moving up while being overbought
^the 2 hr showing more momentum and a little more upside (notice the amount of downside growing)
^the 4 hr I expect to push up the RSI to overbought with bearish divergences gaining strength. Right now it looks like a build up going into open where it will sell off again.
Imso iamiamOP: but sir gold and silver is popping down again... I guess my miners going to drop again today
交易机器不需要魔法 : ***this was the only "miss" and it's the forecasted (made up number by an analyst who has interest in moving the stock price)***
I like this view!
iamiamOP : oil update
^On the hourly a small bearish divergence forming
^2 hr everything looks bullish
^4 hr looks really bullish, could we get a sell down before open then a rally???
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