UPDATE III April 22

Wow, what a bloodbath today. My beloved commodities took a hammering. But am I worried? nope! did I sell some? you bet i did, some very reluctantly even (IPI), and I am buying them all back again. I also bought some today for earnings, following my strategy I bought CLF, HAL, and SLB.
Now onto the the market.

Hello Bears! Another good day for my NQ shorts and VIX longs!
But my commodities took a hit, heres why. As I mentioned in my update II that some (turns out all) had run too high and separated too far from their Moving Averages. They needed a sell down so that the MAs can "catch up" this is called consolidation, if you just bought it is painful (I went through it last year). So rather than me just yell 🗣 BUY COMMODITIES 🗣,  let me explain why this trade is still "young" (in baseball let's say it's the bottom of the 3rd inning top of the 5th at the latest) why it will still make tons of money and maybe important to some how it happened.
How it happened: simple covid (sure there were signs this was due *the charts dont lie and predicted it coming, weird right*) but covid caused it. When the world shut down for covid (the mines closed, the production/refiners shut down, the ports and sources of transportation slowed or stopped) the materials needed for production/growth were used up and no new materials replaced them. (this works for all commodities, example fertilizer, the farmers used all the fertilizer available, but when the new season started there wasn't any more fertilizer the miners didnt mine it, and what they had didnt ship or shipped slowly and was used up, so now that everything has started again the farmers still need fertilizer but the miners cant mine fast enough to meet demand (miners stopped mining potash but farmers didnt stop using it) and the processors cant process it fast enough to meet demand and cant get enough supply to process. This entire mess causes prices to climb. (The farmer who needs fertilizer and can pay the most will pay the most, those who can't pay dont grow enough crops. the real world is harsh.) But this isn't sympathy this is money. And if you have commodities you have money.
Why is this early- I could give you the "super cycle" wave theory but then I'm explaining even more technicals. This is early because it was just recognized. This was not a top, it is a breather.
But the miners are at all time highs?  So what, how high did tesla run at "all time highs"!? or apple or Microsoft or you get the picture. Miners/steel/oil gas are great companies that have never made this much money (so why wouldn't they keep going higher) and they are NOT at all time highs when adjusted for inflation or the price of gold/silver/copper/whatever commodity you want.
What about steel companies surely they topped? Why would it be a top? They are making over $1400 ton for HRC (historic average is between 400-600) that's over twice as much as average and if you listen to earnings they are making 100+% increases in cash flow, they have been priced as a top but at 800 a ton! We are nearly double that. The HRC (Hot Rolled Steel) prices came down today but this is futures and has sell offs just like anything else, this (much like oil) will not last because people need the steel and can not get enough of it (I know this because I know dealers/suppliers who bid on this). And I know and am an end user who cant get what is needed to build.
The fear today and prompting the commodities sell off is that inflation has topped and therefore so have prices.  This is not true on any level. Inflation has not topped (and the FED admitted as much today, when powell said they would not look at fighting inflation, an admission of defeat, they can not raise rates enough to contain it but they can "slow" it by giving us high inflation AND high rates but that equals higher prices)
So now hopefully you understand the inflation/supply demand aspect of commodities, let's see where we are.
🗣 This has not changed 🗣

Futures, triangle formed does it break out or down? my sense tells me oil needs to touch the channel bottom again. Oil actually went up during the trading session as the oil companies sold off, so can they recover if oil drops?

Interestingly the MAs are inverted on silver, the golden cross (50 crossing the 200) happened just before the triangle breakout (which is why I thought it would be a stronger breakout) and silver is waiting for the 100 (red) and 150 (cyan) to cross the 200 (yellow) to be in a full breakout.

30 min looks strong, with a minor bearish divergence forming. Again I am right now predicting a higher market before open. But will it sell at open or in the afternoon?

oil. Looks like a rollover? A further drop is to be expected, but it looks weak so a minor sell down? It is already touching the lower bollinger band and approaching oversold, so a recovery is likely. Maybe the same time the market reverses

As always Good Luck