iamiam wrote a post · Apr 24, 2022 20:46

THE WEEK AHEAD Ending April 29

What a week! Commodities for the most part took a hard tumble, some after explosive earnings spikes (presenting great money making opportunities)

Transaction

So what does the week ahead look like?
I'm going to try something new and do a little explaining why my personal bias is towards a longer trend bear market and commodities super cycle as I go, I hope you dont mind too much about me sharing a little of my days as I go. This will be my longest post so I will try to make it informative and entertaining aside from my biases.
(if you dont mind, drop a comment or like, I kinda feel like I'm talking to myself most of the time)
Now on to the charts, starting with gold.
Charts are like Shakira's hips - they don't lie!

$E-micro Gold Futures(DEC4) (MGCmain.US)$ Futures. On the daily chart showing a little history on the gold chart. Highlighted in blue shows the breakout above the bollinger bands and how it matches the RSI overbought signal and on the MACD and DMA it shows how far those signal lines separated (this is a sign to sell because nothing separates too far for too long). Highlighted in orange is showing the separation of the fast Moving Averages 9,12,20 from the slow 50,100,150,200 (what did I just say about separation) and Highlighted in white shows the separation of the slow moving averages and the weak bearish signals. Also in white on the RSI is my prediction for gold, notice gold never really gets oversold usually just touching the 30 line and rarely breaking under 30 (if it does I will immediately go into hoarding mode)

$SPDR Gold ETF (GLD.US)$ The daily. Highlighted in blue are the bollinger band tightening and expanding. Highlighted in orange shows the separation of the fast MAs from the slower 50 MA *notice it tightening, this is the wave, tightening and expanding (like a wave - it builds - it expands - it breaks - then it recovers and builds anew). learn to ride the waves 🏄‍♂️

The Monthly. Showing the longer trend. That formation is a classic cup and handle. This is the monthly it is a long trend. "I just bought and it dropped" - my response is always wait, the trend is your friend.

$Sprott Physical Platinum & Palladium Tr (SPPP.US)$ Physically holds Platinum and Palladium your shares represent a portion of those holdings. (not redeemable unless you have tens of thousands of shares). Most Platinum and Palladium are mined in Russia some in Ukraine and now starting in Afghanistan. ( $Sibanye Stillwater (SBSW.US)$ has a Palladium mine in the US)
This is one of the best looking charts. SPPP has been in consolidation for a long time. The bollinger bands are starting to "squeeze" together there is plenty of room on the RSI to run higher. The DMA and MACD have turned up (small bearish divergence on MACD). The MAs have come back together from being separated (green highlights) and look at that triangle formation. I think we get a little more downside (based off MACD) before this reverses and breaks out again.

$Micro Silver Futures(DEC4) (SILmain.US)$ Daily chart, highlighted in red are the sell signals in green the buy signals (the new ones have not appeared YET *except RSI, I am projecting). But notice how the last breakout had a "false" breakout before coming back to the original price before the longer sustained breakout, looks familiar huh

$iShares Silver Trust (SLV.US)$ $Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV.US)$
The weak hands are out of silver and gold. There was a massive increase in futures and COMEX (can be redeemed for physical) orders. I mistook this for momentum, what it was, was a search for safety by over leveraged funds (when someone gets overleveraged the market comes for them, like the grim reaper ☠). In layman's terms someone(s) took on too much debt buying silver and gold, and the market took it from them and made sure they couldnt take delivery. *Only the wise who step increase with cash on hand to hold their floor, earn delivery - The real Dragons. Not fly by night quick buck artists*

Don't be like Bud Fox be like Lou Mannheim: Except in this case DO buy the steel company Seriously watch the clip.
https://youtu.be/XCSOsFe42P8
Daily chart, we tried to bounce off of the mid trendline but failed, and now we are setting up for a double bottom.

I'll share a story about real value quickly:
A short while ago a friend, who owns a medium sized landscape company, asked me to help him attend a farmers auction (this is a bad sign and if you want to know why ask in the comments). We showed up and we quickly realized we were out gunned big time, there were bankers, major rental companies, and major construction companies represented, he wanted to leave but I had a thought. I talked to the farmer who talked to the auctioneer and they announced that the 2 small tractors, the mowing and mulching attachments and various gas and hand tools had been removed from the auction... We got a 5% discount on the "listed bid prices" and we paid in silver. Several $1000 face bags and a half dozen bricks later and my friend had his equipment. We had ready access to something the farmer (and auctioneer) deemed more valuable than the vast amounts of cash the others had.
Now the ETFs.
I have an account that is only ETFs, these are the ETFs I own. My account is 9 ETFs- PSLV, SPPP, OIH, XME, XOP, XLE, GDX, (2 are leveraged. SQQQ & GDXU since I cant use options).
ETFs are baskets of stocks controlled and "directed" by a fund manager, for this you pay a small fee (or large depending on the fund, most leveraged have larger fees) but most mine are tiny fees that get swallowed up by the dividends I receive.
$VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH.US)$ Favorite first Oil upstream "servicers"- Oil equipment providers, drillers, site acquirers, engineering and transportation, etc. *You know the adage about the only ones who got rich during the gold rush were the general store owners. Well these are the general store owners for oil. Oil companies need it - these got it.
Managed aggressively - 100% weighted! yeah! When your landing a whale you go all hands on deck, no sleeping. (that means they are all stock and long options no hedge* which is why you can have 20 dollar daily swings) but over time it will climb higher. Over 33% of the basket is Schlumberger and Halliburton (holding over 31 million shares!)
Daily chart, broke the year trend (end super cycle wave 1) I expect it to go to 268 then we march to 400! I will be cheerleading this
* I have a friend at work, who is an oil purchaser, and everytime I see him he chants 400 to me, when we get there I'm sure he will chant 600! but my thinking is, if this guy buys oil for his job and he is telling me OIH is going to 400, I'm going to listen to that.

Weekly chart (to show longer trends) still in a breakout, bollinger bands getting ready to squeeze together starting another longer stronger bull run. But why is it longer and stronger? Easy - because that's where the money is going. Do you want to own tech that is losing money and facing higher rates to borrow money? or some oil servicers making BILLIONS over what they did last year and last year was their best year ever (in terms of dollars made)? the choice for fund managers is easy, that's why commodities have soared while the tech market wavers.

$SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME.US)$ Steel and other metals producers and Miners. Heavy selloff broke the lower bollinger band and is resting on the 50 MA.
*I can not get specialized steel parts. They won't/can't make them (not that they don't want to, but they are making too much money from general output it's not worth the conversion and man power). Demand has not left (when you see futures prices drop understand this is NOT the real market it is profit seekers *traders/speculators - not end users. The real market is still trying to aquire steel and will pay up for it)

$SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP.US)$ I have the Oil servicers, now the Explorers and Producers. This basket is widely diversified, with no single holding larger than 3% of the total weight. These are your energy companies and Natural Gas explorers and producers (like EQT, Southwest energy, Valero etc) along with some utilities
Trying something new with this chart. Showing a wave structure (keep in mind there is a larger wave structure that this is a part of - smaller waves are building larger waves *see the 5 wave structure within a single wave 3) and the wave is not complete so the 0 is speculation there is no 0, I dont know where this bottom is. (RSI is oversold, so we should be getting close)
Also showing the breakout line (this is the hypotenuse of a triangle - and I love triangles). The initial breakout then retest of the breakout then the continuation from the breakout line. (starting a wave structure)

$Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE.US)$ Now the Energy (fancy general term for oil/gas stations) these are the companies you know, and the ill informed hate (ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, Chevron, Occidental etc) as well as a small stake in some utilities. (Owned by the ETF as a hedge against energy price increases to the Producers - as energy prices go up, that is an expense to the oil producers so the ETF owns the companies making the energy the producers use - win/win *hint* not a bad strategy in your personal investments why not own the companies that you pay increasing rates to)
Still breaking down, this is a transitory period caused by someone(s) over leveraging.
*This is true of the overall market. The party is over if you were/are overleveraged the market is coming for you ☠*

$First Trust Natural Gas ETF (FCG.US)$ This is your Natural Gas producers (similar to the other ETFs but the weighting is much different. EQT and Occidental (OXY) are their largest holding at 10% total weight.
The chart looks similar to the other charts. No worries waiting for a confirmed bottom.
The downtrend Lets/Gets all the weak hands out (being overleveraged is a weak position because it doesn't allow flexibility)
TRUTH:

also True: there are no feelings in the Market only money. If I had to care that nearly every time I sell it's to a sap entering a less than advantageous position I may hesitate, but I can't so I don't. As Metallica famously said "Sad but true"

$VanEck Gold Miners Equity ETF (GDX.US)$ $MICROSECTORS GOLD MINERS 3X LEVERAGED ETN (GDXU.US)$ The Miners. If you don't know by now I grew up in mine country, I started in the mines, I have friends in the mines, I love the Miners. I root for the Miners. I am heavily biased, but I am also well informed and very protective of my investments.
Broke the lower bollinger band and 50 MA, this should at the very least bounce, but hopefully find a bottom, probably both (an oversold bounce followed by the final sell down and resulting rebound to begin the next wave up.)

3x leveraged. If you bought GDX before the recent run you would've gone from 30 to 41 and back down to 37. GDXU in the same time period went from 9.5 to 21 and down to 14 (big swings!) This is why you only hold leveraged ETFs during strong trends.

Fertilizers/Potash The food for your food. Fertilizer is potash heated and mixed using Nat Gas (nat gas goes up fertilizer goes up nat gas goes down fertilizer goes down), and guess what Nat Gas just did? That's one heck of a run! now it needs to cool down. I can assure you that no one is getting nat gas at these falling prices on the open market. The charts on commodities are speculation only, you CAN NOT go out and buy silver for 22 or gold for 1930 or oil for 102, you just can't no one will sell it to you without a substantial premium mark up. This is the difference between supply/demand and speculation... speculation is a game - supply/demand is a mathematical constant.

$Intrepid Potash (IPI.US)$ My favorite potash company. A continued selloff is expected.Look to see if it holds up on support or *sells down to the 50 MA (and the lower bollinger band by that time)
*higher probability

$The Mosaic (MOS.US)$ Potash, and other fertilizers and chemicals (including gun powder). The sell off looks to continue probably down to the 50 MA (green) and lower bollinger (blue). The bollinger bands are tightening for a squeeze, but first it must finish its consolidation.

Some individual stocks that are amongst my favorites. And I am playing options on
$Schlumberger (SLB.US)$ With HAL a major Oil Servicer. Just had monster earnings on Friday.
Broke below the 50 MA and the lower bollinger band. Notice how on most of these charts the momentum on the indicators is weaker (smaller waves) this is consolidation to build for a larger wave. You could choose to start adding here but will suffer through swings (down being the current small trend) or wait until the indicators flash "buy" signals (indicators lag that's why you know more assuredly when they signal, but you "miss" the bottom)

$Halliburton (HAL.US)$ Had monster earnings on Tuesday, it ran up and then started selling down.
Similar to Schlumberger, expect more downside before recovery and then breakout. Highlighted are the 50MA (green) the lower bollinger (blue) and the upper bollinger (yellow). I expect the 36 range as my buy zone (situations change that's why you follow the charts, but if this continues to do what I think it does then 36 is my bottom)

$Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF.US)$ Had MASSIVE earnings on Friday, was up 7.5% before ending red. I sold half my CLF and held half, I have time on them and can wait for the next breakout (this week? maybe because another steel manufacturer reports earnings Friday)
Watch for the indicators start to close together (nothing stays separated too far for too long, even in a downtrend) and begin to crossover (a buy signal for a breakout). I expect CLF to stay in this triangle range allowing the bollinger to "squeeze" together and the 50MA (green line and arrow highlight) to "catch up" a little closer to the 20MA (blue line- not with highlight arrow, that's the lower bollinger band). I'm looking for a mid to late week breakout.

$United States Steel (X.US)$ I don't have an options position yet but most likely will soon. X is known mostly for supplying rebar, iron pipe, and steel plates for construction.
When covid started and we couldn't get any rebar or pipe or steel plates (the pipe was for our underground units and the rebar and plate was needed in our bridge and building division) and our construction guys started dabbling in stocks (like everyone else) they soon realized they weren't very good, so I explained to them, why not buy what you use but can't get? I told them "you know how hard it is to find steel and how expensive it is so why not own the company". Now our construction guys will all shout X while holding their arms in an X at me when I visit their sites. They bought in the teens and would give me the "When X moon?" until it hit the 30s now they just shout X at me when I visit. CLF is my favorite steel manufacturer but we rarely use any of their products, nearly everything we use is made by US Steel or Nucor.
Similar to CLF, I'm looking at a later breakout. they report earnings Thursday after market *according to moomoo, I have seen reports Friday premarket.
I'm looking at 32 to add, I will monitor to see if it's going lower, I could see it trying to break below 30.
X runs historically better than CLF because CLF is seen by many analysts as a "pig iron" company and not the fully integrated steel/mining/shipping manufacturer that is is, and has been heavily shorted in its history (this has lead to wild spikes also because of short covering)

Now that you've read through my ramblings onto the stuff you care about. Futures have been running about an hour as I start this, so here we go.
$Micro Silver Futures(DEC4) (SILmain.US)$
On the hourly, silver continues to sell down. And will sell down until all the weak are out and only dragons remain.🐉 How long? mid to late week is my guess.

$Gold Futures(DEC4) (GCmain.US)$ Gold on the hourly, looks ready for the indicators to start turning up. 1930 has generally been a strong holding range. A lot of weak hands are out, but a lot of dragons have shown up, big orders replaced the "for delivery" sell orders. I like this triangle forming, I didn't highlight it but can you see it? Triangles can break both ways, that's why we look at the indicators for signals to help predict direction. *if you would like to be safer- bet the triangles with spreads*

$VIX Index Futures(DEC4) (VXmain.US)$ $CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (.VIX.US)$ $ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY.US)$ I hope some were paying attention to the VIX, UVXY was huge!
The VIX wants to go up! I have been saying (and betting) it for weeks!🗣🗣
Here is the daily, history doesnt repeat but it rhymes. The VIX has been lagging so long. *I believe it did this to allow large institutions to sell calls (I hope you weren't buying them) and set up hedges (low VIX is good for that). Highlighted is my prediction (yes that's right I think VIX drops today- green day?) before rocketing later.

Hourly, Overbought and remember what I said about separation, everything is separated a little too far for me, as I'm writing the 20 min turned down, so that leaves me more confident in my prediction.

$Crude Oil Futures(JAN5) (CLmain.US)$ Haha you knew this meme was coming!

Daily chart, Highlights are bollinger lower (blue) upper (yellow) 1 year trendline (purple) my prediction (green). Notice the indicators

Hourly, looking to see if oil holds a double bottom. An oversold bounce would lead the price to separate from the lower bollinger bringing the upper and lower closer as well as closing the gap from the 50MA, will that lead to more upside? I think so, but will monitor the Daily chart to make sure it is going to break to the upside. I believe it touches the 1 year trendline at takes off again on the Daily.

$Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ Its bad, going to get a relief bounce, then get worse.
Weekly chart to show why my biased is down. I believe we must reach that purple trendline.

Daily, highlighted (these will remain the same throughout) are bollinger upper (yellow) lower (blue) 50 MA (green) 20 MA (darker blue). Green and red bars are my predictions. What are yours?

$E-mini NASDAQ 100 Futures(DEC4) (NQmain.US)$ Daily, everything is BEARISH 🐻

2 Hour, Overall trend is BEARISH 🐻
But there is a bullish divergence forming.

1 hour, Overall trend is BEARISH 🐻
Bullish divergence on the MACD

30 min, BEARISH 🐻 but now you can really see the BULLS 🐘 are starting to form.
Could we run bullish into another open sell off ?!?!

I will keep updates going to open.
I will probably not update after open. Retirement is over and a new job awaits (too good to pass up)
China opened significantly lower, commodities are getting hammered and all the news is bad. Do not follow the news. FOLLOW THE CHARTS! you can listen to the news, but dont let it influence your investments, let the charts and trend guide your investing.
Be a dragon! Hoard your gold/silver metals and the oil that burns. Protect it fiercely, be wise and dont let Mr Market take it.

THAT WAS LONG, I apologize, I will do better in the future, less blab.
Some wise parting words from the great Madonna:
Boys (traders) may come and boys (speculators) may go
And that's all right you see
Experience has made me rich
And now they're after me

'Cause everybody's living in a material world
And I am a material girl (or boy)
You know that we are living in a material world
And I am a material girl (or boy) -

As always Good Luck

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Markio1315 : Thanks for the sharing. need to slowly digest. FAAG results probably will determine the sentiments. I am looking particular from Google and Apple, but they looks like bad news agree?

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Shuseido : Good analysis as always. I am not a commodity guy but still a pleasure to read (said so so you won't think you are talking to yourself.. ).. just kidding..

I am a long term tech guy and starting the "buy the dip" in tranches. Your thoughts pls? Thanks.

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iamiam OP Shuseido : honestly I would wait, and/or hedge your position.
If you are able to do buy/writes. Hang on here: you buy the stock (must be 100 shares) sell a near dated call at the strike around where you bought, simultaneously buy a later dated put below the strike you sold your call. When the price of the stock falls, your sold call (the "write" portion) value drops (you get paid to sell it so now you could buy it back for less or let it expire worthless then check the trend and sell it again to collect more premium). The put will increase in value and you can sell it to recover your lost value from the stocks price drop... or buy a hedged asset like SQQQ and use it to offset your tech purchases, (buy 1 share of xyz AND 1 share of SQQQ) as the price of your tech falls SQQQ will rise offsetting the loss... This is all based on my biased tech has a long way to fall yet. Just some thoughts.

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iamiam OP Markio1315 : yes I agree.
I do not like google or apple right now.
Google is in a strong downtrend.
Apple is just starting theirs.
4 hr charts, not too near sighted and half as long as the daily charts.
apple had another double top (lower on the retry) and is the resulting selloff, expect a relief rally similar to before (little move up mostly sideways) before another longer selloff.
Google is just an ugly chart, expect a relief rally at some point because the indicators are already separating, but similar to what I think of apple it will be a little bump up followed by a larger selloff.
if you have followed me for a while you have heard me talk about "capitulation" well that is coming.

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Imso : depressing to hear gold, silver, uranium and commodity got more downside to go before any upside possible... today futures open with tumbling down

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TinkerB3ll : Hate to see OIH and XLE going down, do you think it’s wise to leave and buy back when it hit ard 270?

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Markio1315 : add that China added lockdown.. prepared for the worst

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iamiam OP TinkerB3ll : if you are able to yes, it's always ok to take profits and rebuy later.

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iamiam OP Imso : yep, even when your right the market makes you be patient

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iamiam OP : Oil update
Sell down, broke 100 again, I do not expect this to continue long. I expect the sell down to go and land heavily on the trendline (breaking below with a wick) if it breaks through it could drop all the way to the breakout trendline on the 4 hr chart. If this happens, wow. That's all that i would be able to say, followed by curse words.
On the daily I expect it to hold the triangle letting the bollinger bands form a "squeeze" for a breakout.

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iamiam

Engineer, Commodity Buyer, Alert Bettor, Tesla 🌬 Commodities BULL🐘 Precious Metals Dragon 🐲 and OIL Trumpeter 🗣🎺

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