服装制造板块中有你喜欢的品牌吗？ #美股
逍遥投资派的第87篇原创
美股日日研33: 盘点一下服装制造板块
Overall, the apparel manufacturing sector saw a significant decline in revenue in 2020, with some recovery in 2021, but the profit level overall is mediocre, with a relatively high valuation. Only one five-star stock was selected, far from the apparel retail sector analyzed yesterday, channel indeed reigns supreme.
Star rating description:
⭐️⭐️⭐️: Best choice, with obvious profit and growth advantages, at a significant discount.
⭐️⭐️: Value or price slightly lower than the best choice.
⭐️: Only suitable for certain investment portfolios, such as small cap stocks, high-growth stocks, crisis stocks, flawed stocks, etc.
⭐️⭐️⭐️: Best choice, with obvious profit and growth advantages, at a significant discount.
⭐️⭐️: Value or price slightly lower than the best choice.
⭐️: Only suitable for certain investment portfolios, such as small cap stocks, high-growth stocks, crisis stocks, flawed stocks, etc.
Portfolio recommendations:
Investment amount based on star rating:For example, 1 star costs 100 dollars, 2 stars cost 200 dollars, and 3 stars cost 300 to 400 dollars.
If less than 10, only choose to invest in 3-star rated index stocks.
If less than 30 stocks, then only choose to invest in index 2 star and 3 star stocks.
If more than 30 stocks, then 1 star to 3 star can all be chosen.
Investment amount based on star rating:For example, 1 star costs 100 dollars, 2 stars cost 200 dollars, and 3 stars cost 300 to 400 dollars.
If less than 10, only choose to invest in 3-star rated index stocks.
If less than 30 stocks, then only choose to invest in index 2 star and 3 star stocks.
If more than 30 stocks, then 1 star to 3 star can all be chosen.
The analysis process is as follows 👇
1
Today is April 26, 2022, pre-market trading on Tuesday in the US stock market, let's take stock of the apparel manufacturing sector. There are a total of 24 stocks, with market caps ranging from 10.68 million to 21.1 billion, including 16 stocks worth more than 0.3 billion, and we will focus on these 16 stocks.
这个板块距离我们的生活很近，几乎每只股票都有著名的品牌。
从市盈率来看，低于0的有4支，低于8.5的有2支，8.5到25的有7支，25以上的有3只，板块的盈利能力中等，估值中等。
2
先看市盈率小于8.5的2支股票。
$PVH Corp (PVH.US)$有CK、Tommy Hilfiger品牌，营收增长在2021年被打破，当年下滑28%，2022年恢复性增长28.4%，但是仍低于2020年水平。营业利润则是除2021年外还在2018、2020年下滑，2022年几乎增长到2019年的高点；净利润曲线和营业利润类似，只是2022年达到了近5年的高点。
利润表显示，2018、2020年营业利润下滑是销售管理费用占比增加造成的，而2022年营业利润暴增是毛利率增加（53→58%）造成的，并非是管理效率的提高。2022年其他非经营收入达到了0.18 billion，进一步提升了净利润。目前看来，2022年的增长持续性非常难判断，毛利率的升降更像是周期性的，非经营收入又是一次性的，如果刨除非经营收入，净利润为0.77 billion，对应6.8倍市盈率。
The balance sheet shows that interest-bearing debt accounts for a relatively high proportion, with long-term loans reaching 2.3 billion, which is not a small burden. Goodwill 2.83 billion, representing half of the net income of 5.3 billion.
PE ratio of 5.75 times (adjusted to 6.8), PB ratio of 1 time, wait for the subsequent annual reports to make a determination.
Here is an additional point, any one-time excessively high growth should be treated with caution, analyzing whether the reasons are unsustainable. If not analyzed, assume it is unsustainable. Once it falls back later, the stock price will suffer from a dual impact of valuation and profit, which is not beneficial for psychological health in the short term.
$G-III Apparel Group (GIII.US)$Operating DKNY, Kart Lagerfeld Paris and other brands, the revenue growth was disrupted in 2021, declining by 35% that year. The recovery growth in 2022 was 34.6%, but it was still lower than the level in 2020.Still below the 2020 level;The operating profit curve is similar to the revenue growth, maintaining growth for 4 years except for a 59% decline in 2021; the net income curve is similar to the operating profit, growing in 4 out of 5 years, with EPS growth also relatively similar, averaging 30% over 5 years.
The profit statement shows that in 2022, with revenue only recovering to 88% of the pre-epidemic level, mainly by significantly reducing the sales and management expenses ratio (26.3% → 23.4%), achieved an increase in operating profit and net income.
Operating cash flow and free cash flow are generally good, always in a net inflow state, and overall showing an upward trend.
Debt-to-asset ratio is 44.6%, accounts receivable 0.6 billion, inventory 0.5 billion, slightly higher than the 2.8 billion revenue, accounts payable 0.25 billion, much less than receivables, the company's position is not very good. Interest-bearing debt is somewhat high, with annual interest expenses reaching 50 million, accounting for 1/4 of 0.2 billion net income, which is a heavy burden. Current ratio is 3.2, quick ratio is 2.1, cash flow is relatively safe.
Currently at a 7x price-to-earnings ratio, 0.9x price-to-book ratio, it can be cautiously selected (⭐️)
3
Let's take a look at 7 stocks with price-to-earnings ratios ranging from 8.5 to 25.
$Gildan Activewear (GIL.US)$A Canadian company with relatively low brand awareness, revenue has grown for 3 out of the past 5 years, with a severe decline in 2020 reaching 30%. The 5-year average revenue growth rate is 2.5%; operating profit decreased by 16.8% in 2019, with a net loss of 23.25 million in 2020; net income decreased for 3 years out of 5, with a loss of 225 million in 2020. Both operating profit and net income achieved growth relative to pre-pandemic levels in 2022.
The income statement shows that in 2021, other net income reached 0.158 billion. If this part is excluded, net income can actually exceed 0.1 billion. Excessive impairment of capital assets was recorded, with impairments of 94 million in 2020 and an increase of 30 million in 2021. This account, intentional or not, caused a profit difference of 0.12 billion from 2020 to 2021.
Additionally, significant fluctuations in gross margin distorted profits. Gross margin declined from 29% in 2017 to 25% in 2019, then after a one-time significant decline in 2020, increased to 32% in 2021.
These combined factors led to a surge in profits in 2022, with sustainability in question.
Currently, the PE ratio of 11.6 times does not have much attractiveness.
$Oxford Industries (OXM.US)$Revenue was basically stable except for a significant one-third decrease in 2021, with a 5-year average growth rate of 2.2%. Operating profit also remained stable, except for losses in 2021 and a sharp increase in 2022, similar to the net income trend.
The profit statement shows that the gross margin increased from 55.5% to 61.8% in 2022, contributing the largest profit increase.
Gross profit cannot increase infinitely, so the growth cannot last long. The current PE ratio of 12.3 times needs better revenue growth support.
$Kontoor Brands (KTB.US)$Revenue has been declining for 4 consecutive years, with a recovery growth of 18% in 2021. The trend of operating profit is similar to revenue; net profit had a significant increase in 2018 and again in 2021. The profit statement shows that the 2018 surge was due to abnormally high income tax in 2017, while the 2021 surge was due to a significant increase in gross margin from 41.2% to 44.7%.
The current PE ratio of 12.5 times requires better growth data.
$Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI.US)$Except for 2020, revenue has maintained growth for 4 years. Operating profit recovered growth after a 85.7% decline in 2020, with a 5-year average growth rate of 8.6% . Net profit and operating profit trends are similar, with a 5-year average growth rate of 14%; similarly for earnings per share growth rate.
Currently, with a PE ratio of 14 times, the discount is not sufficient.
columbia sportswearExcept for 2020, revenue has maintained 4 years of growth, operating profit declined by 65.3% in 2020 and then recovered growth, with a 5-year average growth rate of 12%; net income experienced a significant 43% decline in 2017, followed by a 67.3% decline in 2020, not very stable, with a 5-year average growth rate of 12.3%, slightly higher EPS growth rate.
Currently, a 16.4 times PE ratio discount is not sufficient.
$Under Armour-A (UAA.US)$It is Under Armour. Apart from 2020, revenue has maintained 4 years of growth, operating profit decreased by 15% in 2020 and then recovered growth, with a 5-year average growth rate of 4.8%; net income had 3 years of losses in 5 years, surging to 0.36 billion in 2021.
The profit statement shows that from 2017, restructuring and M&A expenses began to surge, from 80 million to 0.18 billion, then to 0.433 billion in 2020, and decreased to 34 million in 2021.
The gross margin has been increasing, rising from 45% in 2017 to 50.4% in 2021, which is very good.
Currently, a PE ratio of 20.5 indicates that the market may consider the company has successfully restructured and embarked on a path of rapid growth. We can wait for the new financial report to come out and then decide.
4
Let's take a look at 3 stocks with a P/E ratio above 25.
$Canada Goose (GOOS.US)$The fiscal year ends on March 28th, and the financial report is only up to 2022Q3, which is January 2, 2022. The annual report will be released on May 12.
Revenue has been growing for 4 consecutive years. The most affected was the 2021 fiscal year, with a 5.7% decrease, but in 2022Q3 it increased by 23.7%. Operating profit has been declining since the 2020 fiscal year, dropping by 39% in 2021, and net income decreased by 54% in 2021. Even based on the 2020 net income of 1.52 billion, the P/E ratio has reached 15.7. It may be better to wait for the annual report to make a decision.
$VF Corp (VFC.US)$Its brands include Vans, NorthFace, Timberland, and Dickies. The fiscal year ends on March 31st, and the annual report will be released on May 20th.
Only in 2019 did revenue increase in the past 5 years, with a 74% plunge in 2018. Operating profit has been declining since the 2020 fiscal year, halving in 2021. Net income dropped by 46% in the 2020 fiscal year and 40% in the 2021 fiscal year. Even based on the 2019 net income of 1.26 billion, the P/E ratio has reached 16.7, lacking growth data support.
$Hanesbrands (HBI.US)$Revenue has been fairly stable, only dropping by 4.3% in 2020. However, operating profit almost fell to 0 in 2020, with a net loss in 2020 and a slight profit of 77.22 million in 2021.
The main reason for the loss in 2020 was a significant drop in gross margin, while in 2021, a loss of 0.444 billion was generated due to the cessation of operating profit items, which should be one-time. Excluding this loss, if the profit in 2021 is calculated at 0.52 billion, the current P/E ratio is 9.4, still without much discount.
5
Finally, let's take a look at the 4 loss-making stocks with a PE ratio less than 0.
$FIGS Inc (FIGS.US)$Listed in May 2021, the revenue has been growing for the past two years, but the operating profit decreased by 80% in 2021. This was mainly due to a significant increase in sales and management expenses. Assuming a 60% growth in gross profit in 2022 (the growth rate of 2021) to 0.48 billion, and a 30% increase in operating expenses from 0.3 billion to 0.39 billion, the profit could reach 0.09 billion. With the current market cap of 2.6 billion corresponding to a PE ratio of 28.9, the discount is still not enough.
$Capri Holdings (CPRI.US)$The fiscal year ends on March 27th, so the 2021 fiscal year was the most severely affected by the pandemic.
Its brands include Versace, Jimmy Choo, and Michael Kors.
The revenue had been continuously growing for 3 years before the pandemic, but the operating profit had been declining for 5 consecutive years. The main reason was the increase in operating expenses. In addition, the recent two financial reports had very high 'capital asset impairment' of 0.7 billion and 300 million respectively, resulting in actual losses in the past two years. Over the past 5 years, there have been expenses in the special income category exceeding one billion, which has intensified over time.
Nevertheless, the market valuation remains high, with the current market cap at 7.2 billion. Based on the 2020 operating profit of 0.56 billion, the PE ratio has also reached 12.9.
$Ralph Lauren (RL.US)$The fiscal year ends on March 27th, so the 2021 fiscal year was the most severely affected by the pandemic.
Ralph Lauren was a brand I really liked many years ago, especially the quality of the shirts.
Revenue has been on a downward trend except for a slight 2% increase in 2019. Operating profit increased in the two years after 2018 and 2019, but then declined by 42% in 2020 and 46% in 2021. The trend of net income is similar to operating profit, except that it entered a loss range in 2021.
Could it be the butterfly effect caused by my switch to Fred Perry these past two years? I checked and found out FP has not been listed yet. I must buy a few lots when it goes public.
The profit statement shows that the profit growth in 2018 and 2019 and the profit decline in 2020 were mainly due to changes in gross margin. The loss in 2021 was mainly caused by a significant drop in revenue. Currently, the P/E ratio is at TTM16.3, indicating that the 2022 annual report data should be good. Taking a wait-and-see approach for now.
$Ermenegildo Zegna NV (ZGN.US)$The suits are of very good quality; the company went public at the end of 2021 through a SPAC. Revenue declined by 23.2% in 2020 but recovered to 1.29 billion in 2021, still below the 1.32 billion in 2019. Operating profit almost plummeted in 2020, while net income incurred consecutive losses in 2020 and 2021, with losses widening due to 2021 restructuring and M&A costs reaching 0.153 billion.
The current market cap of the company is 2.54 billion. Even based on the highest operating profit of 0.11 billion in 2019, the P/E ratio has reached 23, indicating a relatively high valuation.
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