UPDATE May 4
Even from work I could tell that was a wild day.
I wish I could've been posting updates at open as my buy calls![]()
had a decent day ![]()
Iam going to do things differently again. I'll chart QQQ first on a short time frame to highlight how money moves.
Then the Dollar, 10yr Treasury, Gold, VIX, and Oil to show 3 possible outcomes from tomorrow's FED meeting. The charts have a lot of triangles ready to break. I'll end by charting futures of Oil, Silver, VIX, and NQ
$Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ The volume was low yet Q climbed.
This was short option driven. Big money does not want to own these, this is traders moving on pure algorithms.
Tomorrow the FED speaks to reporters and publishes notes from the FED meeting, and dot plots. If they are Dovish (I don't believe they are) the markets will rally, if they are more Hawkish(![]()
) the markets will sell down. BUT there is a third weird option - they are surprisingly dovish while staying hawkish and the markets swing.
Watch where the money moves.
I wish I could've been posting updates at open as my buy calls
Iam going to do things differently again. I'll chart QQQ first on a short time frame to highlight how money moves.
Then the Dollar, 10yr Treasury, Gold, VIX, and Oil to show 3 possible outcomes from tomorrow's FED meeting. The charts have a lot of triangles ready to break. I'll end by charting futures of Oil, Silver, VIX, and NQ
$Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ The volume was low yet Q climbed.
This was short option driven. Big money does not want to own these, this is traders moving on pure algorithms.
Tomorrow the FED speaks to reporters and publishes notes from the FED meeting, and dot plots. If they are Dovish (I don't believe they are) the markets will rally, if they are more Hawkish(
Watch where the money moves.
$USD (USDindex.FX)$ This will sell of hard, it ran too high too fast and is forming a triangle, money has to flee the dollar *Money fleeing the dollar means commodities rise (especially STEEL - trade on) also if money leaves the dollar where does it go???
Maybe to - $10-Year Yield Futures(NOV4) (10Ymain.US)$ This is going to breakdown, it has run too high too fast and now will do 1 of 2 things.
1.) It will sell down aggressively
What would cause a selloff? - Money rushing to the bond market (lots of buyers in bonds drops the price *They are easier to sell).
Why would money rush to bonds
2.) It will consolidate for months (it takes longer to close the MA gaps consolidating)
What would cause it to consolidate? - Uncertainty, this is a guaranteed rate so it is an overall loser to inflation, therefore to hold it you must believe that:
A.) Inflation will drop significantly![]()
or
B.) The market will stay bearish for a decade and you are willing to take an overall small loss compared to a market bloodbath.![]()
1.) It will sell down aggressively
What would cause a selloff? - Money rushing to the bond market (lots of buyers in bonds drops the price *They are easier to sell).
Why would money rush to bonds
2.) It will consolidate for months (it takes longer to close the MA gaps consolidating)
What would cause it to consolidate? - Uncertainty, this is a guaranteed rate so it is an overall loser to inflation, therefore to hold it you must believe that:
A.) Inflation will drop significantly
B.) The market will stay bearish for a decade and you are willing to take an overall small loss compared to a market bloodbath.
Showing the long trend
THAT IS A CLASSIC CUP AND HANDLE!!! and this fits my projection, 1850 (physical) or 170 (paper) is the pullback - then this pops big 2050/2150 or 190+ * Stay tuned because it will sell down again to retest the "scene of the crime" before we run towards 2500 (September???)
THAT IS A CLASSIC CUP AND HANDLE!!! and this fits my projection, 1850 (physical) or 170 (paper) is the pullback - then this pops big 2050/2150 or 190+ * Stay tuned because it will sell down again to retest the "scene of the crime" before we run towards 2500 (September???)
Weekly, yawn - coming back to what? The scene of the crime
A little more downside before... well I already told you![]()
So it is my prediction money flees the dollar and stocks *especially tech and double for big tech (high rates, high inflation and a recession- I'd flee tech and the dollar also, oh wait I did in November![]()
![]()
) but goes where?
How about Commodities!?
But what would signal that kind of fear?
$CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (.VIX.US)$ $ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY.US)$ All that upside left and the indicators are cool with little separation on the Moving Averages
How about Commodities!?
But what would signal that kind of fear?
$CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (.VIX.US)$ $ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY.US)$ All that upside left and the indicators are cool with little separation on the Moving Averages
Oil $Crude Oil Futures(JAN5) (CLmain.US)$ $VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH.US)$ I take back my bearishness, I was weak. No strangle (buying a call and put) - pure bull
Working to a breakout.
Quick 2 hour futures charts: I'll post updates later
Oil - Oil doing oil
Oil - Oil doing oil
$VIX Index Futures(DEC4) (VXmain.US)$ VIX wants to go up, maybe eventually but it will go up.
$E-mini NASDAQ 100 Futures(DEC4) (NQmain.US)$ I would like to run mostly green until near open. A break up overnight would be great. It can still go 3 ways tomorrow, but Iam🐻
opened new VIX and $ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF (SQQQ.US)$ positions in anticipation of a sell down. It could go higher just because everyone is bearish, but they should be.
opened new VIX and $ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF (SQQQ.US)$ positions in anticipation of a sell down. It could go higher just because everyone is bearish, but they should be.
I will post futures updates later in the comments, if you have a question or want to see a certain commodity leave a comment.
Also there is a major Cement shortage again. They are limiting orders and eliminating low paying orders. Start keeping an eye on 👀 $Cemex (CX.US)$ $Vulcan Materials (VMC.US)$ $CRH PLC (CRH.US)$ $James Hardie Industries (JHX.US)$ (home builders - cement siding and roofing) $Loma Negra (LOMA.US)$
As always Good Luck![]()
Also there is a major Cement shortage again. They are limiting orders and eliminating low paying orders. Start keeping an eye on 👀 $Cemex (CX.US)$ $Vulcan Materials (VMC.US)$ $CRH PLC (CRH.US)$ $James Hardie Industries (JHX.US)$ (home builders - cement siding and roofing) $Loma Negra (LOMA.US)$
As always Good Luck
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Redeem 106 : Thanks for the update. I am a little confuse here. So you are seeing NQ to go higher today or a sell off?
Cantigal : Hello what will be your price target for GDX then? Thanks!
iamiam OP Redeem 106 : is it the term "night" confusing?
I expect a selloff, but there are 3 options
selloff - breakout - consolidation
it could break either way.
iamiam OP : UPDATE 3.5 hours to open. VIX
These are all oversold,
Look at the 2 hr close the gap.
I think this goes up, so that means NQ/QQQ down
iamiam OP : Update 3.5 hours to open. NQ
2 hr and 1/2 hr are showing neutral, but ran positive through the night, cooling the indicators so this could go either way, but I'm leaning bearish with the divergence on the 2 hour
All these indicators are mostly neutral, but VIX and NQ make me lean towards a massacre.
Fordx5083 : Thanks for sharing your work and insight. Useful and very appreciated.
iamiam OP Cantigal : Around 32 is my target, looks just like gold.
iamiam OP : 10 year treasury
30 min shows the "squeeze" and breakdown
Does it continue? nothing shows me a turnaround yet
iamiam OP : Dollar
Again showing everything leading to a "squeeze" and the 30 min shows the "squeeze" broke down.
Does it continue to sell down - I believe so.
Where is the money going to go??? Looks like Oil for now.
user77248281 iamiam OP : i really hope we can go lower than previous lows 2 days ago. but i think it's impossible now
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