AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism jumps and pessimism plunges

Optimism jumped and pessimism plunged in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. The large changes moved both indicators back to well within their typical historical ranges.

- Expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, rose 4.3 percentage points to 30.9%.

- This is the highest level of optimism recorded since March 24, 2022 (32.8%).

- Even with the big increase, bullish sentiment remains below its historical average of 38.0% for the 28th consecutive week.

- Expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, rebounded by 3.0 percentage points to 26.7%.

- Neutral sentiment levels are below the historical average of 31.5% for the sixth consecutive week.

- Expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, fell 16.4 percentage points to 37.1%. Pessimism was last lower on March 31, 2022 (27.5%).

- Bearish sentiment is above its historical average of 30.5% for the 27th time out of the past 28 weeks.

- As noted above, this week's changes put both bullish and bearish sentiment back within their typical historical ranges.

- A rebound from the recent market lows has likely helped to calm the nerves of many individual investors, though concerns about ongoing stock market volatility, inflation, interest rates, the coronavirus pandemic and politics are still influencing sentiment. Also having an impact is the ongoing invasion of Ukraine by Russia, stock market volatility, the economy and corporate earnings.

- Measures the percentage of individual investors who are bullish, bearish, and neutral on the stock market short term.

- Individuals are polled from the AAII Web site on a weekly basis.