FERTILIZERS/POTASH - a special weekend update
Watching the US farm report, I thought I would do a special potash update.
The Nitrogen fertilizer is up 133% on the year and Phosphorus/Potassium fertilizer is up 93%. *On a related Oil note- if you follow me and read my special weekend update Oil post last week, They reported EXACTLY what I warned/told what was happening in my post - THEY CAN NOT REFINE ENOUGH OIL INTO USABLE FUELS!!!! They warned that diesel for the farmers (and everyone else) is NOT going down for at LEAST 2 years!!!
Ok enough about oil (seriously why hasn't everyone bought Oil- even if just to offset your fuel costs) back to Fertilizer. On the planting report the midwest is under 70% planted on corn (time to plant is running out) and 56% on SPRING wheat (again time is out to plant) the midwest is also dealing with root soil rot (wetter than normal soil) *as well as Canada which is expected to be down 3+ million planted acres.
The farm reporter (the guy out talking to farmers) just made an excellent statement I should share so you can see just how badly the markets are manipulated- Markets are supposed to be free and dictate price but what happens when you can't buy or sell at the Market price? I use Gold and Silver as prime examples of this but here is what the US farm report says
"Fertilizer has gone down the last few weeks- allegedly, that's assuming you can find it and someone wont give you a guaranteed markup" he also noted that "We may see something amazing, farmers may actually dictate price to the buyer, if you want it here's the price" again your thinking "Isn't that how the market works?" HELL NO!!! the market and country are not free. Like everything else, the bankers in tandem with unelected government officials dictate price- this system is being eroded and challenged every day in the commodities markets. Its is also BEARing this out in the stock market
Ok I digress again, before I get to the charts let me relay a story from a friend who is a Fertilizers/Potash supplier (he sells direct to farmers, mostly those under major food contracts). He said that the farmers couldn't sell their seed (that's where most farmers make money) because the prices were too high for buyers those that sold when price collapsed didn't make enough to cover harvest cost and the buyers didnt buy in enough time to plant (that's why the price collapsed) he said we are years away from reaching normal food supply - THAT IS WITH NO OTHER HURDLES as in best case scenario.
On to charts $The Mosaic (MOS.US)$ Stock prices follow a pattern divorced from reality and have no correlation to real product prices. (Opposite of tech these trade below forecasted earnings, because people listen the govt and banks and think this is temporary or not that bad- these same people are leaving you unprepared for the coming famine)
The Nitrogen fertilizer is up 133% on the year and Phosphorus/Potassium fertilizer is up 93%. *On a related Oil note- if you follow me and read my special weekend update Oil post last week, They reported EXACTLY what I warned/told what was happening in my post - THEY CAN NOT REFINE ENOUGH OIL INTO USABLE FUELS!!!! They warned that diesel for the farmers (and everyone else) is NOT going down for at LEAST 2 years!!!
Ok enough about oil (seriously why hasn't everyone bought Oil- even if just to offset your fuel costs) back to Fertilizer. On the planting report the midwest is under 70% planted on corn (time to plant is running out) and 56% on SPRING wheat (again time is out to plant) the midwest is also dealing with root soil rot (wetter than normal soil) *as well as Canada which is expected to be down 3+ million planted acres.
The farm reporter (the guy out talking to farmers) just made an excellent statement I should share so you can see just how badly the markets are manipulated- Markets are supposed to be free and dictate price but what happens when you can't buy or sell at the Market price? I use Gold and Silver as prime examples of this but here is what the US farm report says
"Fertilizer has gone down the last few weeks- allegedly, that's assuming you can find it and someone wont give you a guaranteed markup" he also noted that "We may see something amazing, farmers may actually dictate price to the buyer, if you want it here's the price" again your thinking "Isn't that how the market works?" HELL NO!!! the market and country are not free. Like everything else, the bankers in tandem with unelected government officials dictate price- this system is being eroded and challenged every day in the commodities markets. Its is also BEARing this out in the stock market
Ok I digress again, before I get to the charts let me relay a story from a friend who is a Fertilizers/Potash supplier (he sells direct to farmers, mostly those under major food contracts). He said that the farmers couldn't sell their seed (that's where most farmers make money) because the prices were too high for buyers those that sold when price collapsed didn't make enough to cover harvest cost and the buyers didnt buy in enough time to plant (that's why the price collapsed) he said we are years away from reaching normal food supply - THAT IS WITH NO OTHER HURDLES as in best case scenario.
On to charts $The Mosaic (MOS.US)$ Stock prices follow a pattern divorced from reality and have no correlation to real product prices. (Opposite of tech these trade below forecasted earnings, because people listen the govt and banks and think this is temporary or not that bad- these same people are leaving you unprepared for the coming famine)
I like this to breakout.
Fertilizers/Potash seems prime for a temporary relief rally and for IPI in particular a big one. After the rally and subsequent decline, these are fabulous long holds over the next few years.
Be safe - have a couple months of food storage, plant a garden (potatoes and green beans offer the best return) and as always -
Good Luck
Be safe - have a couple months of food storage, plant a garden (potatoes and green beans offer the best return) and as always -
Good Luck
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RWJY CCJM : Hi! Great analysis!
To my understanding you are bullish about $Intrepid Potash (IPI.US)$
Let’s hope for the best!
iamiam OP RWJY CCJM : temporarily bullish on IPI, maybe bullish until Sept. I'm not bullish on anything past Sept, yet.