UPDATE June 10
well that was a weird session, it was performing mostly how I thought, (I was making some good money in oil options) then i came back from a meeting and it seemed EVERYTHING sold off.
Then I got home and looked at my charts and nearly EVERYTHING (that I chart) fell to a major support and went oversold on hourlies all the way to the 4 hr...
That leaves me with an ominous feeling.
Then I got home and looked at my charts and nearly EVERYTHING (that I chart) fell to a major support and went oversold on hourlies all the way to the 4 hr...
That leaves me with an ominous feeling.
let's see what the charts are saying. The charts are wild right now.
$E-micro Gold Futures(DEC4) (MGCmain.US)$ $SPDR Gold ETF (GLD.US)$ miners![]()
$VanEck Gold Miners Equity ETF (GDX.US)$ $VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ.US)$ leveraged $MICROSECTORS GOLD MINERS 3X LEVERAGED ETN (GDXU.US)$
I believe the precious metals are going lower, could they break higher? of course. That's why I said I have a feeling that the metals may go lower and I mean a "lot" lower ("lot" is relative, I believe gold in the 1700s is easy, 1450 is possible with silver breaking 20 and 17 is possible) and if they do what I think they will do - this is what I save my pennies for!
$E-micro Gold Futures(DEC4) (MGCmain.US)$ $SPDR Gold ETF (GLD.US)$ miners
I believe the precious metals are going lower, could they break higher? of course. That's why I said I have a feeling that the metals may go lower and I mean a "lot" lower ("lot" is relative, I believe gold in the 1700s is easy, 1450 is possible with silver breaking 20 and 17 is possible) and if they do what I think they will do - this is what I save my pennies for!
Keep in mind nothing moves in straight lines (at least not for very long) but these can swing wildly on the way down, in fact I wouldn't count out a sudden spike and crash.
"But iam, if inflation is high shouldn't PRECIOUS METALS go up?!?" ![]()
A: Yes, yes they should... And they will, but -
And this is where my gut feeling comes in. I dont think the CPI report is going to be seen as that bad with a possibility of "Much better than expected"... First off I dont believe a word of any of it!!!!![]()
I know better. ![]()
The CPI is minus food and energy SO all those negative reports companies are giving are therefore GOOD for the CPI - "But how?, Explain" - OK all that inventory sitting on the shelves is not going up in price, in fact it's going on sale or going to second hand dealers (like ROSS, TJ MAX etc) this is a DEFLATIONARY action. Vehicle prices have been coming down, and certain commodities have dropped significantly from their peaks (dont worry if you own say steel- I believe they are coming back)
A: Yes, yes they should... And they will, but -
And this is where my gut feeling comes in. I dont think the CPI report is going to be seen as that bad with a possibility of "Much better than expected"... First off I dont believe a word of any of it!!!!
The CPI is minus food and energy SO all those negative reports companies are giving are therefore GOOD for the CPI - "But how?, Explain" - OK all that inventory sitting on the shelves is not going up in price, in fact it's going on sale or going to second hand dealers (like ROSS, TJ MAX etc) this is a DEFLATIONARY action. Vehicle prices have been coming down, and certain commodities have dropped significantly from their peaks (dont worry if you own say steel- I believe they are coming back)
And heres a real stunner - I think OIL could fall, significantly to say 117 then 115 then 108 ![]()
Again this is temporary OIL will not be stopped!
This is only a natural downtrend to cool indicators and realign the Moving Averages
Again this is temporary OIL will not be stopped!
This is only a natural downtrend to cool indicators and realign the Moving Averages
OK down the mountain I go, but I will leave one warning.
I do not believe real inflation is going down! I believe governments and the FED LIE!!! So this puts this one post in high contrast to most my views, which is why I said it's a gut feeling (because look at oil go!). So today is a time when I could be completely WRONG!![]()
so be careful out there.
Be careful out there and as always
Good Luck![]()
I do not believe real inflation is going down! I believe governments and the FED LIE!!! So this puts this one post in high contrast to most my views, which is why I said it's a gut feeling (because look at oil go!). So today is a time when I could be completely WRONG!
Be careful out there and as always
Good Luck
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Engineer, Commodity Buyer, Alert Bettor,
Tesla 🌬 Commodities BULL🐘 Precious Metals Dragon 🐲 and OIL Trumpeter 🗣🎺
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W Chiang : CPI for all items rises 1.0% in May; shelter, gasoline, food indexes rise
Perfect CPI for sQQQ
Mike Obama W Chiang : fkn delicious
Mr Trecherous : Damn Your Charts Skills are Epic
Mr Trecherous : I'm just a humble meme fisherman
TinkerB3ll : @iamiamwhat’s your thoughts on XLE and XOP? The past two days have been selling off hard. Love to hear your advice.
iamiam OP TinkerB3ll : iam torn, I've sold portions off oil, I still believe there is upside but it's in that weird hot zone where so many speculators have rushed in as a safe haven that's its overrun with speculation, and the old saying goes "When speculators stick their necks out they get their heads lopped off." so I've taken profits but still hold a lot of shares, it's not easy to sell OIH and some other because I'm so far up I may just hedge with DRIP or similar. I know that's not very helpful but oil and gold day to day are wild I know what they will be in 6 months or a year but 3 days out is tough
Dons hobby : I am, what is DRIP ?
iamiam OP Dons hobby : $Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bear 2X Shares (DRIP.US)$ - 2 X bear for oil via XOP... Basically they try to double the inverse of XOP (XOP goes down 2% they go up 4%, the opposite is also true)... XOP is the most diversified oil index, so investing in DRIP is going against the entire oil sector.
TinkerB3ll iamiam OP : Thanks @iamiamI agree. I’m looking at daily chart two reds in a row. If Monday hits again I will probably offload some since I’m already in green and buy back when they bottom up.
Agree with what you said on $Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bear 2X Shares (DRIP.US)$ a good diversification for sure but I realized such inverse tool trading volume is rather Low. The movement is rather narrow. But definitely will consider another I’m thinking is $Direxion Daily Energy Bear 2X Shares (ERY.US)$ @Dons hobbyyou can consider too which is inverse of XLE.
Dons hobby iamiam OP : Thanks iam, great explanation it has to be because I actually understand it. That's what I really like about ALL your posts, you explain things that even I can understand.
Thanks again iam, I appreciate you
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