What to expect in the week ahead (ORCL, KR, ADBE, WLY)

Stocks have had a tough year as recession fears rise along with consumer prices. The S&P 500 is down 18.2% year to date through Friday's close. It's also 19.1% below an intraday record set in January. The Dow has fallen 13.6% in 2022, and the Nasdaq Composite is deep in bear market territory, down 27.5% this year and trading 30% below an all-time high set in November.

It will be a quiet week on the earnings calendar between earnings seasons. The most important event of the week for investors will be the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's interest rate-setting committee's June meeting on Wednesday.

Companies reporting earnings this week will include Oracle on Monday evening, Kroger on Thursday morning, and Adobe on Thursday evening. The New York Times Company also hosts an investor day on Monday and NextEra Energy hosts an investor day on Tuesday.

The Federal Open Market Committee will issue a monetary policy decision after its two-day meeting ends on Wednesday. Chairman Jerome Powell will present and answer questions from the press that afternoon. The FOMC is all but guaranteed to raise its Fed Funds target by half a percentage point, to a range of 1.25% to 1.50%.

FOMC officials will also update their projections for economic growth, the unemployment rate, inflation, and future interest rates on Wednesday. That will give economists and investors greater insight into the committee's possible next moves.

Economic data out this week will include the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Producer Price Index on Tuesday. It is expected to have climbed 0.7% in May, for a 10.8% year-over-year increase. Excluding food and energy components, the core PPI is seen rising 0.6% last month and 8.7% from a year earlier.

The New York Times hosts an investor day at its headquarters in New York.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the producer price index for May. The consensus estimate is for a 10.8% year-over-year jump, after an 11% spike in April. The core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise by 8.7%, compared with an 8.8% gain previously.

The Federal Open Market Committee concludes its two-day session. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points.

The National Association of Home Builders releases the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for June. Economists are looking for a 68 reading, compared with a reading of 69 in May.

The Census Bureau reports retail-sales data for May. Expectations are for a 0.15% seasonally adjusted monthly increase, after a 0.9% rise in April. Excluding autos, retail sales are seen rising 0.7% compared with a 0.6% rise in April.

The BLS releases its Export Price index, which is believed to have risen 0.8% in May from a 0.6% in April. Import prices are expected to rise 1.1% in May compared with being flat in April.

The Census Bureau releases new residential construction data for May. The consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.720 million housing starts, compared with 1.724 housing starts in April.

The Conference Board releases its Leading Economic Index for May. Economists forecast a 0.35% monthly decrease, following a 0.3% drop in April.