AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism jumps back above 50%
The percentage of individual investors expecting stock prices to fall over the next six months is above 50% for the fifth time in eight weeks. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey also shows short-term optimism about stocks falling below 20%.
Sentiment
Bullish sentiment
- Expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, declined 1.6 percentage points to 19.4%.
- The drop puts optimism at a seven-week low.
- It is below its historical average of 38.0% for the 30th consecutive week and at an unusually low level for the 17th time in 21 weeks.
Neutral sentiment
- Expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, plunged by 9.9 percentage points to 22.2%.
- It is below its historical average of 31.5% for the seventh time in eight weeks.
- It is also at an unusually low level for the second time in seven weeks.
Bearish sentiment
- Expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, jumped 11.5 percentage points to 58.3%.
- This is a seven-week high.
- It keeps bearish sentiment above its historical average of 30.5% for the 29th time out of the past 30 weeks and at an unusually high level for the 10th time in 11 weeks.
Opinion: The S&P 500 has also underperformed following periods of below-average neutral sentiment
- The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) is –38.9% and is unusually low for the 20th time in 23 weeks. Most of this week’s responses were recorded prior to Wednesday, when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a 75-basis-point interest rate hike.
- Continued downward volatility in the major stock indexes along with corporate earnings may have heightened concerns among many individual investors about the possibility of further downside in the stock market. Also influencing sentiment are inflation, interest rates, the coronavirus pandemic, politics, the ongoing invasion of Ukraine by Russia, stock market volatility and the economy.
Current AAII Sentiment Bull-Bear Spread:
About AAII Semtiment Survey
- Measures the percentage of individual investors who are bullish, bearish, and neutral on the stock market short term.
- Individuals are polled from the AAII Web site on a weekly basis.
Source: AAII
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SpyderCall : I like to think of this thing as "The Rug Pull Meter." When sentiment is super fearful then most everyone is shorting the market and the market makers will pull the rug out from everyones' feet and make the market skyrocket and squeeze everybody out of their shorts. Conversely when the sentiment is super greedy then the market makers will cause another liquidity event to squeeze out the longs
hanyoung :
1994CM SpyderCall : Agree
72823826 : Up
whqqq : above 50%? that's huge number