OIL UPDATE June 18
I love my oil 🛢 and oil companies ⛽ but being this heavily invested in oil, I must protect my investments from decline and more losses coming.
How did I protect myself from losses?
- I took profits and sold half - then I sold calls on the remaining while simultaneously buying puts (this is called a synthetic short, I'm basically selling my own shares short rather than borrowing someone else's shares) - and finally the strategy I'm using on moomoo and my ETF account $Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bear 2X Shares (DRIP.US)$ a 2X inverse to $SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP.US)$ (XOP goes down 1% - DRIP goes up 2%)
*if you are not familiar with the XOP ETF it is a diversified basket covering every part of the oil sector (Explorer, Supplier, Producer, Transporter, Seller - many companies like $Schlumberger (SLB.US)$ are suppliers, transporters and producers). No one asset is more than 4% of the basket and it includes the biggest names $Chevron (CVX.US)$, $Phillips 66 (PSX.US)$, $Marathon Oil(Delisted) (MRO.US)$, $Antero Resources (AR.US)$, $Exxon Mobil (XOM.US)$ and most of the stocks I post about.
So, how is the play going?
How did I protect myself from losses?
- I took profits and sold half - then I sold calls on the remaining while simultaneously buying puts (this is called a synthetic short, I'm basically selling my own shares short rather than borrowing someone else's shares) - and finally the strategy I'm using on moomoo and my ETF account $Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bear 2X Shares (DRIP.US)$ a 2X inverse to $SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP.US)$ (XOP goes down 1% - DRIP goes up 2%)
*if you are not familiar with the XOP ETF it is a diversified basket covering every part of the oil sector (Explorer, Supplier, Producer, Transporter, Seller - many companies like $Schlumberger (SLB.US)$ are suppliers, transporters and producers). No one asset is more than 4% of the basket and it includes the biggest names $Chevron (CVX.US)$, $Phillips 66 (PSX.US)$, $Marathon Oil(Delisted) (MRO.US)$, $Antero Resources (AR.US)$, $Exxon Mobil (XOM.US)$ and most of the stocks I post about.
So, how is the play going?
Not bad, but how high will it go?
Let's check the Charts (but iam isn't it just the XOP chart?... Why wouldn't you check the components that make up the basket to see where XOP is going?), I will show the top 3 assets, all are around 3% of the total XOP ETF basket.
Let's check the Charts (but iam isn't it just the XOP chart?... Why wouldn't you check the components that make up the basket to see where XOP is going?), I will show the top 3 assets, all are around 3% of the total XOP ETF basket.
I look for XOP to touch 108 while the body of the candle stays mostly at the trendline around 120
$Antero Resources (AR.US)$ I'm looking for a drop of around 10 dollars!! that's a whopping 28% more!
Just to show the long trend of what that 25 target means and looks like on a long timeline
$PBF Energy (PBF.US)$ the relief rally will come when the body of the candle sets up on the trendline, not a candle wick.
I will hold my short positions until the trend reverses. As a funny side note I kept expecting XOP to bounce so I kept resisting buying more DRIP. At up 3% I thought ok when it bounces to only up 1.5% I will buy- it went to 6% I thought ok if it goes back to 3% I will buy it went to 12% haha, should have just bought, but you can't break discipline and still be disciplined.
Some can only see the storm. But there are those that see the perfect wave.
As always Good Luck![]()
As always Good Luck
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Engineer, Commodity Buyer, Alert Bettor,
Tesla 🌬 Commodities BULL🐘 Precious Metals Dragon 🐲 and OIL Trumpeter 🗣🎺
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TinkerB3ll : Niceee, what do you think of XLE. I’m so heavily invested in them that I’m bleeding. I’m wondering roughly at what level can I see a reversal. Any advice?
iamiam OP TinkerB3ll : 58 is where I sold some puts. It looks like it could have some or a violent rally, I'm guessing when oil breaks 100.
Are you selling calls? buying puts? it's going to be a steep slide - I warned of too much speculation and speculators get their heads lopped off, this was the head getting lopped off.
TinkerB3ll iamiam OP : No, I’m not into options :( because I’m heavily in XLE and ERX. XLE I managed to get profit but ERX I’m down 37%. Looking at daily chart I think it might curve up within the next few days but I maybe wrong. I’m holding and thinking that it will curl up soon. Initially, I was down 5% overnight when I head to sleep but I was thinking just hold it out and it will eventually come back. So I’m just thinking where can I buy maybe at the bottom, and you are the commodity guru so love to hear your thoughts.
TinkerB3ll : And that’s another $20 bucks down before we could see a reversal? Oh dear.
iamiam OP TinkerB3ll : yeah im afraid so, the way the market is going, profit takers left then it was stop losses leaving and now it's the holdouts, I'm not leaving but I'm not buying yet either...
in "real" life it's a very different story, the drop in stock and oil prices will not reflect on physical gas and oil product prices, we expect to continue with rising to ranged prices. or in other words prices will hold or drop pennies until they go up again, no one is addressing the production problems.
iamiam OP TinkerB3ll : also just a thought, if your thinking of buying in again consider buying DRIP or an inverse of XLE and then when you sell that as XOP has gone down (DRIP has gone up) use those profits to buy in XOP again, just a thought.
Auspicium Divination : Nice job Brother!
TinkerB3ll iamiam OP : Thanks @iamiamI will probably get some drip, how high do you think it will go before the reversal works it magic? Yes right now I’m holding, I need to average and I know that there still room so I’m gona wait and look up for your update![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
which is so informative and comforting too. For now, will have to turn a blind side on my energy account.
TinkerB3ll : Recently, I read about PXE from your list seems like a good etf too.
Yes, just so weird the market is not acting according to how the situation is. Thank you again and have a great weekend :)
SpyderCall : good call. i shorted oil 3 weeks ago. way too early. but i got all my money back already
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