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Probability of recession up to 44%: avoidable or destiny?
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I think we are going into recession caused by self-fulfilling prophecy

TLDR: If we keep believing there will be a recession, that in itself will cause a recession.
Story time
Firstly, to discuss about recession, we first need to know what is a recession. A recession is
A recession is a significant decline in economic activity, as measured by a drop in GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales, over a few months.
A simpler way to understand a recession is that everyone is spending less money over a long period of time.
That can be caused by people getting worried about the future so they save more instead of spending more. Even companies gets worried so they fire people to save cost, which mean people lose their jobs, so they can't spend as much.
it is a vicious cycle
When you spend money, that money becomes another person's income, which allows them to spend it and so on. So when everyone starts to spend less and save more, someone else starts to earn less. That means they have to spend less, which causes someone else to earn less, and so on.
So you can see how the fear of a recession can technically be the cause of a recession when everyone start acting on it.
Currently
What we know is that companies, like $Tesla(TSLA.US)$ and $Sea(SE.US)$, are cutting jobs because they are worried about a recession coming. The silver lining is that, many companies are still hiring, so hopefully they don't start cutting jobs too.
We know that many have lost a lot of money gambling in the stocks and crypto market on $Robinhood(HOOD.US)$, so spending will fall. We do know that there is a drop in GDP already. But there is also a revenge travelling and spending phenomenon too after travel restrictions have been opened up. Hopefully that will help to prop up spending.
There are also more and more news and talks about recession that is coming soon, and even stagflation. That usually creates more fear, and so long as everyone just spend a bit lesser, that could be the triggering point for the recession.
So let's see how it goes
source
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4495762-economic-recession
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