Angel Align: Share Price Continues to Rebound, Is Now a Good Time to Invest?
Angel Align is a leading invisible orthodontic solution provider in China. It has successively launched four invisible orthodontic products: Angel Align Standard Edition, Angel Align Champion Edition, and COMFOS Angel Align Children's Edition. The market share will be 40% in 2021, ranking first in the market.
Key Takeaways：
1. The CAGR of the number of long-term cases in China's invisible orthodontic industry is expected to be 21%
Fosun Hani expects the number of industry cases to grow from about 450,000 in 2021 to 3.49 million in 2032 (2022-2032F industry case CAGR of 21%).
Core driving forces of the industry:
①High single-digit growth in per capita disposable income;
②Low penetration rate of invisible orthodontics;
③Compared with traditional orthodontics, the invisible orthodontics has obvious advantages (clean, beautiful, convenient, comfortable);
④Fast-growing practicing dentists and clinics drive industry growth.
②Low penetration rate of invisible orthodontics;
③Compared with traditional orthodontics, the invisible orthodontics has obvious advantages (clean, beautiful, convenient, comfortable);
④Fast-growing practicing dentists and clinics drive industry growth.
2. The company is the leader of invisible orthodontics in China, with a solid moat
In 2021, the market share of invisible orthodontics in China is 41%, ranking first in China.
Strong Moat:
①Comprehensive product portfolio
②Largest database of Asian cases
③Quality medical and technical services
④Brand effect
⑤Compared with Align Technology, Angel Align has channel sinking advantages
⑥Smart Manufacturing, Scale Advantage
②Largest database of Asian cases
③Quality medical and technical services
④Brand effect
⑤Compared with Align Technology, Angel Align has channel sinking advantages
⑥Smart Manufacturing, Scale Advantage
3. Strong cash flow, ample cash on hand
Profit quality is high, operating cash flow is strong, and net cash exceeds 3.6 billion yuan by the end of 2021. Fosun Hani estimates that in the case of a 30% dividend payout ratio, the net cash in 2032 will reach 18 billion yuan.
4. Earnings Estimates: HK$224
Based on the DCF valuation, Fosun Hanibelieves the reasonable market value is RMB 32.6 billion, corresponding to HK$230 per share. Based on the valuation of the number of cases per unit, Fosun Hanibelieves that the reasonable market value is RMB 31.8 billion, corresponding to HK$224 per share. Combining the two valuation methods, our target price is HK$224, which still has upside potential from the current price.
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