Shen Wan: The reversal of Hong Kong stock technology has started, and the bottom of consumption & Internet market's profit is approaching.

Since February 2021, the three factors that have led to the decline of Hang Seng Technology and China General Insurance have all improved: the domestic platform economic supervision has turned to normalization, and the digital economy, automobile electrification, The liquidity crisis eased, the policy continued to support overseas listing of enterprises, and the CSRC emphasized the openness of cross-border audit cooperation; From weakness to improvement: the resumption of production and economic recovery will also change the fundamental expectations of consumer Internet and industrial Internet.

Although the mobile phone industry chain is maturing and the penetration rate of mobile Internet is becoming saturated, digitalization is still a long-term trend. On the one hand, mature services such as platform economy and cloud computing are expected to usher in a dilemma reversal under the background of fully digested valuation. On the other hand, automobiles and VRAR are expected to become a new generation of mobile intelligent terminals, opening up new growth opportunities.

Since the end of March, the policy has come to an end (setting the tone to support the healthy development of the platform economy and turn to normal supervision; The game version number has been restored; Pay attention to the follow-up Internet financial rectification rules and clear actions in the content areas), Q2' s profit bottom is approaching (21H2-22H1' s weak fundamentals are expected to be fully digested, cost reduction and efficiency increase+low base+resumption of work, and the regulatory environment changes and improves, and the growth rate will pick up in the second half of the year to 23 years). At the same time, the delisting crisis of China Banking Corporation Limited has eased, and many companies' stock prices are upside down with repurchase prices, and the bottom reversal signal is obvious.

The α in the dilemma reversal β: the online penetration rate has improved (domestic and local life, games, and short videos going out to sea), and the platform for pattern improvement (social winner-take-all, and differentiated competition in games). Entertainment focuses on Tencent Holdings, Netease, and Kuaishou, and is optimistic about local life take-out, instant retail penetration, and profit enhancement; E-commerce reduces costs and increases efficiency, Tik Tok's e-commerce is increasing rapidly, JD.COM is looking for a daily increase of 100 businesses, and PDD is making efforts to digitize agriculture.

With IaaS growth slowed down, Alibaba Cloud and Tencent Cloud adjusted their strategies, pursued high-quality development, and attached importance to the development of PaaS and SaaS services. SaaS benefits from the long-term trend of the digital industry, focusing on leading Kingdee International and Jinshan Software; After the macroeconomic stabilization and recovery, the recovery of IT expenditure of downstream enterprises will drive the fundamental cycle of related companies upward, focusing on China's civil aviation information network (recovering after the epidemic of wine travel), Mingyuanyun and BEKE (the bottom of the building real estate is reversed).

The market of the mobile phone industry chain is maturing, and the data is relatively flat; ARVR sprouted, and thanks to the intelligence of automobiles, automotive electronics ushered in an outbreak. Focus on Shunyu Optics and pay attention to Xiaomi Group.