What to expect in the week ahead (JPM, MS, WFC, C)

Second-quarter earnings season is here. More than a dozen S&P 500 firms report this week, including several major banks. JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley go first on Thursday, followed by Citigroup and Wells Fargo on Friday.

Highlights on the week's economic calendar are a pair of June inflation readings: The Bureau of Labor Statistics' consumer price index on Wednesday and the producer price index on Thursday. Consensus expectations are for spikes of 8.8% and 10.7%, respectively.

The National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for June. Consensus estimate is for a 92.8 reading, roughly even with May's, which marked the fifth consecutive month below the 48-year average of 98. In May, the tally of small-business owners expecting better conditions over the next six months decreased four points, to a net negative 54%, the lowest level recorded for the survey.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the consumer price index for June. Economists forecast an 8.8% year-over-year jump, compared with an 8.6% increase in May, which is a 40-year high. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen rising 5.7%, compared with 6%. Core CPI has cooled a bit since hitting its recent peak of 6.5% in March.

The Federal Reserve releases the beige book for the fifth of eight times this year. The report gathers anecdotal evidence on current economic conditions from the central bank's 12 districts.

The BLS releases the producer price index for June. Expectations are for a 10.7% annual spike and an 8.2% jump in core PPI. This compares with increases of 10.8% and 8.3%, respectively, in May. Both the PPI and core PPI are slightly lower than their record highs, set in March.

The University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for July. The consensus call is for a 50 reading, even with June, which is a record low for the index, which dates back to 1978.

The Census Bureau reports on retail sales for June. Retail sales are expected to have increased by 0.8%, month over month, after declining 0.3% in June. Excluding autos, sales are seen rising 0.6% compared with 0.5% previously. Despite high inflation and dour sentiment, consumer spending has held up relatively well.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases its Empire State Manufacturing Index for July. The index, along with three other regional Federal Reserve Bank manufacturing indexes, had negative readings in June, indicating contraction in that sector of the economy.