Crude is near an area of interest
the only support left for crude is that thick orange horizontal trend line at the bottom of the chart below. global demand for energy has been forecasted downward. all producing countries are increasing output regularly. and the Russian war is not escalating. these are the factors that are holding oil in its current downtrend.
here are the four hour candles for crude futures directly below. my instincts are telling me to follow the trend. and be ready to short crude at this downward trending resistance of this price channel. a breakout above this price channel would be short-term bullish so I will be patient and not place my short bets just yet until I get confirmation of a rejection of this resistance.
if we look on a closer time frame with 1 hour candles like the chart below we might be able to find a good entry point. you can see how the very short-term of trend is losing strength. the price action is leveling out possibly consolidating before a very short-term downtrend. always be wary of a breakout and price action above the resistance level mentioned above.
basically with crude as it is with most other commodities it is all about supply and demand. if we get some major global events to disrupt the supply side or the demand side of crude oil then we will actually see the price action correlate. and right now the macroeconomic environment is still not very accommodative for cheap crude oil prices but it is getting more accommodative very slowly hence the downtrend that we are currently in.
right now personally the only things I can think of that would change the downtrend into an uptrend is if we get forecasts for rapid global growth or if the Russian war situation gets worse in some way. there is also still a lot of fighting going on in the Middle East that not a lot of people are talking about. this is also affecting oil.
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ $SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average Trust (DIA.US)$ $VIX Index Futures(DEC4) (VXmain.US)$ $SSE Composite Index (000001.SH)$ $CSI 300 Index (000300.SH)$ $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ $S&P/ASX 200 (.XJO.AU)$ $FTSE Singapore Straits Time Index (.STI.SG)$
right now personally the only things I can think of that would change the downtrend into an uptrend is if we get forecasts for rapid global growth or if the Russian war situation gets worse in some way. there is also still a lot of fighting going on in the Middle East that not a lot of people are talking about. this is also affecting oil.
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ $SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average Trust (DIA.US)$ $VIX Index Futures(DEC4) (VXmain.US)$ $SSE Composite Index (000001.SH)$ $CSI 300 Index (000300.SH)$ $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ $S&P/ASX 200 (.XJO.AU)$ $FTSE Singapore Straits Time Index (.STI.SG)$
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