Bulls or bears? Both have a fair chance in Friday’s Bitcoin options expiry

Bears placed their bets at $21,000 or lower
The open interest for the July 22 options expiry is $540 million, but the actual figure will be lower since bears have been caught by surprise. These traders did not expect a 23% rally from July 13 to Ju20 because their bets targeted $22,000 and lower.
Bears aim for $24,000 to secure a $235 million profit
Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on July 22 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:
Between $20,000 and $21,000: 900 calls vs. 3,000 puts. The net result favors the put (bear) instruments by $60 million.
Between $21,000 and $22,000: 2,400 calls vs. 3,000 puts. The net result is balanced between bulls and bears.
Between $22,000 and $24,000: 6,600 calls vs. 500 puts. The net result favors the call (bull) instruments by $140 million.
Between $24,000 and $26,000: 9,400 calls vs. 0 puts. Bulls take total control, profiting $235 million.
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