If Apple makes a profit, it should skyrocket. What indicators should we pay attention to?

Revenue growth remains moderate, while declining gross profit means that Apple will inevitably be hit by inflationary raw materials (especially chips).In fact, revenue was met online, a slight decrease of 4.3% over the same period last year.This means that the efficiency of the opera country has not declined. Net revenue fell by more than 10% year on year, which also led to EPS falling 9% at the same time, reflecting a continuous increase in tax expenses and a 38% year-on-year increase in tax expenses.

Dry the package in pieces,The iPhone is unquestionably the best performer, with a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, defeating market consensus.Apple once removed some iPad chip supplies to iPhones due to a “chip shortage.” In contrast, Mac sales fell 10% year over year, which is also 12% different from consensus. The main reason is that the latest M2 chip was released in mid-June, and consumer purchases are lagging behind. Wearable products fell 7.9%, which fell out of touch with the 8.3% consensus, and no new Apple Watch was released. Revenue from services including app stores, streaming media, licensing, AppleCare, and iCloud increased 12.1% year over year to double digits, but was almost the same as market expectations (-0.7%), which means that most of the increase was calculated by price.

By region, America and Europe showed slight growth, but the market consensus was missed.The Greater China region fell 1.2% year over year, but still outperformed the market consensus. Because last year's base was very high, it increased 7%, and it is still the biggest driver.Sales in Japan fell 15.8% year over year, also below expectations of 14%.It is greatly affected by the exchange rate... In the rest of the Asia-Pacific region, with the exception of China and Japan, growth rates reached double digits of 14%, but the overall scale still needs to be increased.

Due to the uncertainty of the macro environment, Apple did not provide a forecast for the next quarter and fiscal year, but instead gave a gross margin forecast of 41.5-42.5%, which fell short of the market's consensus on the last three quarters, while the market's average forecast for the next three quarters was 42.3-43.5%. It means,Apple's estimated cost impact is even greater.

Furthermore, the foreign exchange impact brought about by the strong US dollar in the second quarter brought headwinds of up to 600 basis points. This means that in local currency terms, the performance of the second quarter was actually quite good, but unfortunately, the foreign exchange impact of the strong US dollar will not end soon.

What the market is most concerned about is Apple's next level of performance. There are two key messages.

First, Apple's deferred revenue.It is a leading indicator of Apple's revenue from services. Although growth continues, the growth rate has fallen to 0.41% in the current quarter, which means don't expect the service growth rate to continue to grow at a high rate in the future. Also, the Apple tax on the Apple App Store is also often criticized.