Two types of contracts are waiting to explode in the futures market

The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting has just ended. On the first day of August, the world is in trouble again.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Nancy Pelosi) is the No. 3 person in the US. She has already begun a trip to Asia, focusing on whether she will set foot in the TW region. She hasn't been back to the US for a day, and her itinerary is still full of variables. If she dares to step into TW, it will inevitably cause a strong reaction from China, leading to huge uncertainty in the financial market.

If there is friction, it will inevitably cause a war sentiment like the March Russian-Ukrainian conflict in the market, and I'm afraid it will be a new wave of fluctuating commodity prices. While this is unlikely, everyone needs to be prepared.

1. Crude oil sensitive times
There is no doubt that if a local war breaks out, it will only add fuel to current oil prices; however, the OPEC+ meeting on August 3 this week will become very important if the gun is not turned away. After all, it was Biden's first meeting since his visit to the Middle East. Will Saudi Arabia separately propose plans to increase production as in 2021? If this were true, oil prices would face a phased downturn.

Technically, WTI oil prices are still in the range of annual and semi-annual fluctuations. It can be expected that if the news is unclear, oil prices will still operate in this range until some news explodes.

Therefore, strategically, it is still impossible to determine whether to go long or short, but ex can break through the range, and the price will rise faster, so everyone must be patient.

II. Agricultural products
In the last week of July, Meidou experienced a big rebound. Every day of the week, the performance was unusually strong.

There are two reasons. One is that the North American drought caused market weather operations to begin; the second is to increase the emotional premium brought about by the uncertainty of military conflict during Pelosi's visit to Asia.

I've emphasized to everyone before that 7-9 days is a critical time to fry soybeans, which is greatly affected by weather news. If the weather is bad, the price will skyrocket. Prices will return to normal as soon as the weather improves. The difficulty of trading is following rather than predicting.

At this point, everyone can use the 20-day EMA to track the stop loss.Also, at this stage, everyone should pay attention to the best planting rate data released on Monday evening. The market will speculate on the next week's market based on this data. This is an important report for short-term tracking.

three. precious metals
Gold showed a strong rebound around 1680, in line with the resonance trend in news and technology. And where is the current rebound pressure? Here are two perspectives for your reference: Assuming that gold continues to fluctuate within the range for a long time, it is difficult for the price of gold to improve significantly without the Federal Reserve actually easing interest rate hikes. (Unless another war breaks out), an earthquake will occur in the short term around 1680-1780.